Full opinion text
Decision JONES, District Judge. INTRODUCTION This civil action was brought by the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice, Washington, D.C., against the defendants, VISA U.S.A. INC., (“Visa U.S.A.”), VISA INTERNATIONAL CORP., (“Visa International”) (collectively “Visa”) and MASTERCARD INTERNATIONAL INCORPORATED, (“MasterCard”). It involves the U.S. credit and charge card industry, which has only four significant network services competitors: American Express, a publicly owned corporation; Discover, a corporation owned by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter; and the defendants Visa and MasterCard, which are joint ventures, each owned by associations of thousands of banks. The Government claims, in two counts, that each of the defendants is in violation of Section 1 of the Sherman Antitrust Act, which provides that “every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States ... is declared to be illegal.” 15 U.S.C. § 1. Count One centers around the governance rules of Visa and MasterCard, which permit members of each association to sit on the Board of Directors of either Visa or MasterCard, although they may not sit on both. Count Two targets the associations’ exclusionary rules, under which members of each association are able to issue credit or charge cards of the other association, but may not offer American Express or Discover cards. Because the Sherman Act outlaws only those agreements that unreasonably restrain trade and because the agreements alleged in this case are not the type of agreements that are unreasonable per se, for each count the plaintiff must demonstrate that the restraint has substantial adverse effects on competition. For the reasons to follow, the court finds that the Government has failed to prove that the governance structures of the Visa and MasterCard associations have resulted in a significant adverse effect on competition or consumer welfare. However, the proof clearly shows that the exclusionary rules and practices of the defendants have resulted in such adverse effect and should be abolished. Turning to Count One, plaintiff focuses on what it calls the “governance duality” of the associations. Plaintiffs expert defines governance duality as a governance scheme which permits banks to have “formal decision-making authority in one system while issuing a significant percentage of its credit and charge cards on a rival system.” Plaintiffs theory is that because of the overlapping financial interests of the banks they represent, the dual Directors on each of the associations’ boards have a reduced incentive to invest in or implement competitive initiatives that would affect their other card product, and as a result the Visa and MasterCard associations have failed to compete with each other by constraining innovation and investments in new and improved products. To support this theory, the Government claims that the associations’ failure to compete is exemplified by delayed or blunted innovation in four areas: (1) chip-based “smart” cards; (2) an encryption standard for Internet transactions; (3) advertising, and (4) premium cards. It also cites a number of statements made over the years by Visa and MasterCard executives which generally criticize “duality” as an impediment to aggressive competition between the associations. The Government claims that these statements are further proof that dual-issuing association board members engaged in anticompetitive behavior. Based upon what it hoped to prove, the Government proposed the imposition of a court-mandated governance structure for Visa and MasterCard for a period of ten years. This structure would require that any issuer who served either on the Board of Directors or any governing committee of either association agree prospectively to issue credit, charge and debit cards exclusively on that association’s network. It would also require that by 2003, 80% or more of the issuer’s total dollar volume in credit and charge transactions be transacted on that association’s network in the U.S. and worldwide. After a review of the evidence, the court concludes that with the exception of the associations’ failure to name each other in their advertising — a dated example that no longer reflects the aggressive advertising competition that has existed for some years between the defendants — the Government’s examples fail to prove that dual governance has significantly diminished competition and innovation in the credit and charge card industry. Defendants’ statements about “duality” do not persuade the court to the contrary. Most of them relate to dual issuance rather than to dual governance or board conduct; those that do refer to governance are dated and far too general to be of any probative value. In addition, the Visa and MasterCard boards have an impressive record of supporting “share-shifting” initiatives specifically designed to gain market share for their association at the expense of the other association, as well as American Express and Discover. The Government’s failure to establish causation between dual governance and any significant blunting of brand promotion or network and product innovations is fatal to this claim. Moreover, if innovation competition between Visa and MasterCard has been jeopardized in the past, it is at least as likely that dual issuance and the influence of the major dual issuers has been to blame as has dual governance. If this is so, the only remedy may well be the separation of the major banks as owner/issuers into one association or the other. This is precisely the direction the industry has taken. During the last three years, most of the top banks and monoline issuers have already chosen to enter into “dedication” agreements with either Visa or MasterCard which provide that the issuer must solicit 100% of its new cards in the association with which it has contracted. Although entering into one of these contracts is not a prerequisite for board membership, not surprisingly, the current “dedication” levels (“portfolio skews”) of the members of the associations’ Boards of Directors now reflect the market reality that dual governance is virtually at an end. Of course, whether or not dual issuance has been or will be the source of anticom-petitive conduct is not the issue. In this case the Government set out to prove that dual governance has been — if not the cause — a cause of an actual adverse effect on competition in the market. This it has not done. Even if market forces had not already all but ended dual governance, since the Government has failed to prove that adverse effect, no remedy altering the governance structures of Visa and MasterCard is justified. In the second count, the Government alleges that Visa and MasterCard have thwarted competition from American Express and Discover through exclusivity rules forbidding members of the associations from issuing credit cards on competing networks. Since the penalty for issuing American Express or Discover cards is forfeiture of the association member’s right to issue Visa or MasterCard cards, the Government claims that these “rules raise the cost to a member bank of issuing American Express or Discover credit cards to prohibitively high levels and make it practically impossible for American Express and Discover to convince banks ... to issue cards on their networks.” (CmpltA 136.) And, indeed, since American Express’ decision in 1996 to open its network and seek bank issuers, no bank has concluded a deal with American Express at the expense of losing its Visa and MasterCard portfolios. The Government also claims that American Express and Discover, as the smaller networks, need Visa and MasterCard members to issue their cards in order to increase their share of the card-issuing market to better compete with the associations in the network services market. The Government argues that as a result of the exclusionary rules, American consumers have been denied the benefits of credit and charge cards with new and varied features. The proof demonstrates that Visa U.S.A.’s By-law 2.10(e) and MasterCard’s Competitive Programs Policy (“CPP”) do weaken competition and harm consumers by: (1) limiting output of American Express and Discover cards in the United States; (2) restricting the competitive strength of American Express and Discover by restraining their merchant acceptance levels and their ability to develop and distribute new features such as smart cards; (3) effectively foreclosing American Express or Discover from competing to issue off-line debit cards, which soon will be linked to credit card functions on a single smart card, and (4) depriving consumers of the ability to obtain credit cards that combine the unique features of their preferred bank with any of four network brands, each of which has different qualities, characteristics, features, and reputations. At the same time, the direct purchasers of network services (the issuers) restrict competition among themselves by ensuring that so long as all of them cannot issue American Express or Discover cards, none of them will gain the competitive advantage of doing so. The defendants argue strenuously that no consumer harm results from the exclusionary rules because the member banks of the associations compete fiercely as card issuers with each other and with American Express and Discover to offer lower interest rates and all manner of incentive programs and services to card consumers. This issuer-level competition, however, does not take the place of competition at the network level, and while there is no claim in this case that member banks of Visa and MasterCard have conspired intra-association or inter-association to raise prices to consumers directly, their exclusionary rules have significantly reduced product output and consumer choice in the issuing market and have reduced price competition in the network services market. The defendants also argue that these exclusionary rules actually enhance competition between the four systems because they keep the systems separate. They argue that if “duality”, however defined, actually does cause reduced incentives to compete at the network level, triality or quadrality will only make things worse. However, the fact is that the major issuers have for some time now been wooed aggressively for their business by Visa and MasterCard, and as the defendants themselves have argued, the result has been procompetitive. There is no reason to believe that permitting American Express and Discover also to solicit the major issuers will be anticompetitive. It will simply mean that four networks instead of two will be able to compete to sell network services to America’s banking institutions. Of course, at present the dedication agreements concluded between Visa and MasterCard and their major issuers have locked up most of the credit and charge card market, leaving only a few major issuers uncommitted and currently free to partner with American Express or Discover. The current competitive landscape thus requires that in addition to abolishing the associations’ exclusionary rules, the court declare the dedication agreements voidable by the individual banks in order to permit them to negotiate issuing arrangements with American Express and Discover, if they so choose. Since this court has found no liability under Count One, the associations are free to respond to concerns about multiple-issuing governors with potentially conflicting financial interests as they see fit. They may retain or appoint board members whether or not the member’s bank has agreed to solicit prospectively only that association’s cards. They are also free to set, adjust, or abandon altogether requirements that board members reach certain percentages of volume on that association’s system. This situation favors multiple issuance and leaves the monitoring of governors’ competitive incentives in the hands of the associations’ owners and the market. Under the remedy ordered by the court, banks that reach issuing arrangements with American Express, Discover or any other association may not be treated as well by Visa or MasterCard, but they will not be forced to give up their Visa and or MasterCard portfolios. FINDINGS OF FACT AND CONCLUSIONS OF LAW This case was tried to the court sitting without a jury for thirty-four trial days between June 12, 2000, and August 22, 2000. In addition to considering the oral and written testimony of a number of current and former executives of the Visa and MasterCard associations and their member banks, as well as American Express and Discover, the court also heard expert testimony. The Government presented the testimony of Michael Katz, Professor of Economics and Business Administration at the University of California at Berkeley. Richard Schmalensee, Dean and Professor of Economics and Management at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Richard Rapp, an economist affiliated with National Economic Research Associates, Inc., testified on behalf of Visa U.S.A. and Visa International. Ronald Gilson, Professor of Law and Business at both Stanford University and Columbia University testified on behalf of Visa International. Robert Pindyck, Professor of Applied Economics at the Sloan School testified on behalf of MasterCard. The court has considered over six thousand pages of trial testimony, volumes of deposition testimony, approximately six thousand admitted exhibits and amicus curiae briefs from American Express and Discover — among others. The court has made determinations as to the relevance and materiality of the evidence and assessed the credibility of the testimony of the witnesses. Upon the record before the court at the close of the admission of evidence, pursuant to Fed.R.Civ.P. 52(a), the court finds the following facts to have been proved by a preponderance of the evidence, and sets forth its conclusions of law. I. OVERVIEW OF THE PAYMENT CARD INDUSTRY This case involves the four major systems, or networks, that provide authorization and settlement services for U.S. credit and charge card transactions: Visa, MasterCard, American Express and Discover. Visa and MasterCard members issue credit, charge and debit cards with the Visa and MasterCard brands. American Express and Discover issue credit and charge cards with their brand names but do not issue debit cards. (See Ex. D-4118.) A charge card requires the cardholder to pay his or her full balance upon receipt of a billing statement from the issuer of the card. (See Krumme (JCB ) Dep. at 147-148.) A credit card permits cardholders to pay only a portion of the balance due on the account after receipt of a billing statement. (See id. at 148.) Although debit cards are similar to credit and charge cards in that they may be used at unrelated merchants, the fact that upon use they promptly access money directly from a cardholder’s checking or deposit account strongly differentiates them from credit and charge cards. (See Tr. 151 (Kesler, Banco Popular); Krumme (JCB) Dep. at 148.) As explained more fully below, the two relevant product markets are (1) the market • for credit and charge cards issued under these brand names, and (2) the market for the network services that support the use of credit and charge cards. Because the cards at issue in this case are accepted at numerous, unrelated merchants, they are known as general purpose cards. There is no dispute that proprietary cards such as those issued by department stores like Sears or Macy’s and accepted only at those locations are not in the relevant market. MasterCard and Visa are structured as open, joint venture associations with members (primarily banks) that issue payment cards, acquire merchants who accept payment cards, or both. (See Tr. 4450-51 (Dahir, Visa U.S.A.).) They do not have stock, or shareholders; just members and membership interests. (See id. at 4451.) MasterCard is open to any eligible financial institution. (See id. at 5613-14 (Selan-der, MasterCard).) Similarly, any financial institution that is eligible for Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation deposit insurance can join Visa. (See id. at 4452-53 (Dahir, Visa U.S.A.).) Visa members have the right to issue Visa cards and to acquire Visa transactions from merchants that accept Visa cards. In exchange, they must follow Visa’s by-laws and operating regulations. (See id. at 4451-53 (Dahir, Visa U.S.A.); Ex. D-1586 at § 2.03-2.04 (Visa U.S.A. By-laws).) The same is true of MasterCard. (See Ex. D-3228 at § 5 (MasterCard By-laws).) MasterCard has approximately 20,000 global members. (See Tr. 5571-72 (Selander, MasterCard).) Visa U.S.A. has approximately 14,000 members in the United States, including approximately 6,000 Visa card issuers. (See id. at 4453 (Dahir).) The remaining 8,000 members are acquiring banks. MasterCard and Visa are operated as not-for-profit associations and are supported primarily by service and transaction fees paid by their members. (See id. at 4454-55, 4457-4458 (Dahir).) They set their fees to “cover the costs involved in providing the basic infrastructure to the members,” but do not charge license fees or royalties. While the associations make a “profit” from these fees, they do not try to maximize retained earnings. The profit they earn is used to maintain a capital surplus account to pay merchants in the event of a member bank failure. (See id. at 4455-57, 4459 (Dahir); see also id. at 5582-83 (Selander, MasterCard).) In a Visa or MasterCard credit card purchase the merchant actually receives only about 98 percent of the price of the item. The remaining 2 percent is called the “merchant discount,” which is the fee paid to the merchant’s acquiring bank for providing its services. The acquirer, in turn, splits this fee with the card-issuing bank, which is paid about 1.4 percent of the purchase price. The issuing bank owns the consumer’s account and takes the payment risk. The 1.4 percent of the purchase price is called the “interchange fee” and is set by the associations. The members of MasterCard and Visa work together through each of the associations to achieve benefits for themselves they could not provide independently, including globally recognized brands and sophisticated computer networks for processing transactions. The members of Visa and MasterCard compete with each other on practically every other dimension that directly impacts consumers, including pricing, fees and finance charges, product features and other services for cardholders and merchants. (See Schmalensee Dir. Test, at 114-15, 131-32; Tr. 4450-4451 (Dahir).) Each association is managed by a Board of Directors (elected by its members) and by a management team. This team is responsible for day-to-day operations and has certain authority delegated by the Board. Because the owners of the associations are also the customers, and vice ver-sa, the associations are necessarily consensus-driven. (See Tr. 4462-63 (Dahir, Visa U.S.A.).) By contrast, American Express and Discover are for-profit companies that operate as “closed loop,” vertically integrated systems. They promote their brands and operate their networks to process transactions and (unlike the associations) also issue cards and enlist merchants to accept those cards. Neither American Express nor Discover needs to set interchange fees because they are both the issuer and acquirer on all transactions and keep the full amount of the merchant discount fee. American Express’ average merchant discount rate in 1999 was approximately 2.73 percent compared to Discover^ rate of approximately 1.5 percent and Visa’s and MasterCard’s rates of approximately 2 percent. (See id. at 2719 (Golub, American Express); 2981, 3007-08 (Nelms, Discover); Ex. D-0982 at AMEX0001260771; Ex. D-1683 at VUTE0001692.) Because of these different business structures in the payment card industry, competition takes place at two interrelated levels — the network services level (where Visa, MasterCard, American Express and Discover compete) and the issuing level (where American Express and Discover compete with each other and with thousands of Visa and MasterCard member banks.) Competition among systems plays a major role in determining the overall quality of the brand, encompassing system-level investments in brand advertising, the creation of new products and features and cost-saving increases in the efficiency of the electronic backbone of the networks. (See Schmalensee Dir. Test, at 126.) Competition among issuers largely determines the prices that consumers pay and the variety of card features they can obtain. Individual issuers in the associations also sometimes invest separately in their own advertising and in the creation of new products. Unlike the concentrated network market, no single issuer dominates the industry; the largest credit and charge card issuers have only small shares of total industry output. (See id. at 119 & Table 4.) American Express is the largest issuer of credit and charge cards in the United States as measured by transaction volume — $186 billion in fiscal year 1999. Consistent with the successful performance of its card business, American Express is highly profitable and it regularly meets its return on equity and earnings per share growth targets. (See Tr. 2468-70 (Chenault, American Express); Ex. D-1683 at VUTE0001671.) Discover entered the payment card business in 1985. Measured by transaction volume, Discover was the fifth largest issuer in 1999 with $70.98 billion outstanding. In 1999, measured by the number of cards outstanding (48 million), Discover placed among the top three issuers in the United States. (See Tr. 3028-31, 3057-58 (Nelms, Discover); Ex. D-1712; Ex. D-1859; Ex. D-4462.) It was not until the 1970’s that the growth of the payment card industry was significantly facilitated by the formation and growth of what would become the Visa and MasterCard associations. (See Schmalensee Dir. Test, at 132-133.) Before the existence of these joint ventures there were no national credit cards, and charge cards were available only from three national issuers: American Express, Diners Club and Carte Blanche. Even those cards could be used only at a limited group of merchants. Today, credit and debit cards that can be used nationally and internationally at millions of merchants are issued by thousands of association members. (See id. at 132-133.) Minimum financial qualifications required for a credit card have declined dramatically so that even consumers with lower incomes are readily able to obtain payment cards. (Id.) The percentage of households with credit and charge cards quadrupled from 16 percent in 1970 to 68 percent in 1998. And the share of consumer spending paid for with general purpose credit and charge cards has increased from less than three percent in 1975 to 18.5 percent in 1999. (See id. at 123.) Even without adjusting for the increased quality of services provided, prices to consumers have decreased 20 percent from 1984 to 1999. (See id. at 124 & n. 355.) The associations have also fostered rapid innovation in systems, product offerings and services. Technological innovations by the associations have reduced transaction authorization times to just a few seconds. (See Pindyck Dir. Test, at ¶¶ 9, 52; Rapp (Visa) Dir. Test, at 17-22; Schmalensee Dir. Test, at 124-25.) Fraud rates have also decreased through a number of technological innovations. Consumers have access to products that combine dozens of features available through the associations with features and services developed by the individual issuers. (See Tr. 4991-92, (Schall, Visa U.S.A.); Moore (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 173-76 (approximately 130 products offered by Visa to members); Tr. at 5554-55 (Selan-der, MasterCard).) Cardholders today can choose from thousands of different card products with varying terms and features, including a wide variety of rewards and co-branding programs and services such as automobile insurance, travel and reservation services, emergency medical services and purchase security/extended protections programs. (See Ex. D-4510; Pindyck Dir. Test, at ¶¶ 9 & 66; Rapp (Visa U.S.A.) Dir. Test, at 53; Schmalen-see Dir. Test, at 124-25.) Consumers in the United States also have extensive information available to them about card offerings and can readily switch cards and issuers. Information about fees, finance charges and card features is primarily available through direct mail solicitations. In 1999 alone, issuers sent out 2.9 billion direct mail solicitations to households in the United States, an average of 2.4 solicitations per month to each household. Additional information is available through newspapers, magazines, the Federal Reserve Board survey and the Internet. Card solicitations also offer consumers an easy way to switch credit card balances and issuers. In 1999, consumers in the United States transferred bank credit card balances of approximately $47 billion. Since most cards charge no annual fee, consumers can accept a new card without cost and without canceling existing cards. From 1994-1999, approximately 28 percent of households with a general purpose credit or charge card acquired an additional card each year. (See Schmalen-see Dir. Test, at 122-123.) II. SHERMAN ACT ALLEGATIONS A. RELEVANT MARKETS In order to analyze defendants’ conduct for the antitrust violations alleged in this case, the court must first determine the relevant product market. (See Capital Imaging Assocs., P.C. v. Mohawk Valley Med. Assocs., Inc., 996 F.2d 537, 543 (2d Cir.1993).) A relevant product “market is composed of products that have reasonable interchangeability,” in the eyes of consumers, with what the defendant sells. (United States v. E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., 351 U.S. 377, 404, 76 S.Ct. 994, 100 L.Ed. 1264 (1956); see also Eastman Kodak Co., Inc. v. Image Tech’l Servs., 504 U.S. 451, 482, 112 S.Ct. 2072, 119 L.Ed.2d 265 (1992).) The assessment takes account of the factors that influence consumer choices, including product function, price, and quality (du Pont, 351 U.S. at 404, 76 S.Ct. 994); but the object of the inquiry in defining the market is to identify the range of substitutes relevant to determining the degree, if any, of the defendants’ market power. (See Rothery Storage & Van Co. v. Atlas Van Lines, 792 F.2d 210, 218-19 (D.C.Cir.1986); see also Eastman Kodak, 504 U.S. at 469 n. 15, 112 S.Ct. 2072; U.S. Anchor Mfg., Inc. v. Rule Industries, Inc., 7 F.3d 986, 995-96 (11th Cir.1993); U.S. Healthcare, Inc. v. Healthsource, Inc., 986 F.2d 589, 598-99 (1st Cir.1993); Home Placement Service, Inc. v. Providence Journal Co., 682 F.2d 274, 280 (1st Cir.1982).) Accordingly, for goods or services to be in the same market as the defendants’, substitutability in the eyes of consumers must be sufficiently great that the defendants’ charging of supracompetitive prices for its product would drive away not just some consumers but a large enough number to make such pricing unprofitable (and hence induce the defendant to restore the competitive price). (See du Pont, 351 U.S. at 394-95, 76 S.Ct. 994; Rothery, 792 F.2d at 218.) In other words, a market is properly defined when a hypothetical profit-maximizing firm selling all of the product in that market could charge significantly more than a competitive price, i.e., without losing too many sales to other products to make its price unprofitable. (See, e.g., Coastal Fuels of Puerto Rico, Inc. v. Caribbean Petroleum Corp., 79 F.3d 182, 197-98 (1st Cir.1996); State of New York v. Kraft Gen. Foods, Inc., 926 F.Supp. 321, 361 (S.D.N.Y.1995); Dep’t of Justice and Fed’l Trade Commission Horizontal Merger Guidelines (Apr. 2, 1992) at § 1 (product market is a “product or group of products such that a hypothetical profit-maximizing firm that was the only present and future seller of those products (monopolist) likely would impose at least a ‘small but significant [generally 5 percent] and non-transitory’ increase in price”).) The court adopts the market definitions of the Government’s expert economist, Professor Michael Katz, and finds that the general purpose card network services market and the general purpose card market are the relevant markets for antitrust analysis in this case. Although the defendants argue that the relevant market is one which includes all methods of payment including cash, checks and debit cards, the defendants’ own admissions and evidence of consumer preferences support Prof. Katz’ opinion and demonstrate the existence of a general purpose card market separate from other forms of payment and a card network market comprised of the suppliers of services to the general purpose card issuers. 1. General Purpose Cards Constitute A Relevant Product Market Professor Katz employed the price sensitivity test articulated in the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission Horizontal Merger Guidelines to determine the relevant markets. (See Dep’t of Justice and Fed’l Trade Commis sion Horizontal Merger Guidelines (Apr. 2, 1992) at § 1.) First, based upon price data from Visa U.S.A. for 1998, Professor Katz estimated the prevailing price-cost margin in general purpose cards to be about 26 percent. Then he conservatively estimated that a 5 percent increase in general purpose card prices would have to reduce general purpose card output by over 16 percent in order to make such a price increase unprofitable. All of the experts found the use of consumer survey data to determine whether and how many consumers would in fact switch from credit or charge cards to cash, check or debit in the face of such a price increase extremely difficult. This is because cardholders do not face or observe consistent prices or costs for obtaining or using their credit or charge cards. Some consumers (known in the industry as revolvers) pay interest monthly; others (known as transactors) pay their entire bill monthly and thus have no monthly credit cost. Some consumers enjoy a positive benefit from the use of their card by obtaining mileage rewards or “cash back” while also obtaining the monthly grace period before paying in full when they receive their bill. Many pay no fee for obtaining a card; some pay small or even substantial annual fees for cards (e.g., an American Express Platinum card) with extensive services offered. Consequently, it is essentially impossible to make a definitive calculation of consumer price sensitivity or elasticity of demand via survey. (See Schmalensee Dep. at 122-27, 272-73; see also M. Katz Dir. Test. ¶¶ 116-122.) Despite these difficulties, the court is persuaded by Prof. Katz’ analysis and finds that it is highly unlikely that there would be enough cardholder switching away from credit and charge cards to make any such price increase unprofitable for a hypothetical monopolist of general purpose card products. This conclusion is buttressed by the fact that (1) few, if any, cardholders actually can or do observe price increases, including interchange rate increases and increases in service fees charged by issuing banks; and (2) the burden of such increases is at least partly passed on by merchants and so is shared by consumers who use other means of payment. (See M. Katz Dir. Test. ¶ 131.) Professor Katz’ market definition is further supported by evidence of consumer preferences. In many circumstances, consumers strongly prefer to use credit and charge cards rather than cash or checks, because they generally do not want to carry large sums of cash to make large purchases, and checks generally have much lower merchant acceptance than either cash or general purpose cards. (See Schmidt (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 70; Tr. 5971-72 (Schmalensee); M. Katz Dir. Test. ¶¶ 113-14.) Also, consumers benefit from the general purpose card’s credit function, which allows for the choice to purchase now and pay later. (See Schmalensee Dep. at 381-82; Schmidt Dep. at 69-72) Indeed, defendants’ member issuers do not view cash or checks as “competitive” with general purpose cards. (Armentrout (Crestar) Dep. at 100.) Because proprietary cards, such as a Sear’s or Macy’s card, are accepted only at a single merchant consumers do not believe that proprietary cards are substitutes for general purpose cards and therefore they should not be included in the relevant market. 9See Krumme (JOB) Dep. atl53-54; M. Katz Dir. Test. ¶ 102; Schmalensee Dep. at 131, 244.) Consumers also do not consider debit cards to be substitutes for general purpose cards. Due to their relative lack of merchant acceptance, their largely regional scope, and their lack of a credit function, on-line debit cards, which require a pin number, are not adequate substitutes for general purpose cards. Similarly Visa and MasterCard research demonstrates that consumers do not consider off-line debit cards to be an adequate substitute for general purpose cards, even though they have attained widespread merchant acceptance. Knowledgeable industry executives agree with these conclusions. (See Tr. 742, 746^47, 965 (McCurdy, American Express); Tr. 2996-97 (Nelms, Discover); Krumme (JCB) Dep. at 156.) Since the merchants’ demand for general purpose cards is derived from consumers’ demand to use these cards, their attitudes also reflect consumer attitudes. Some merchants, including large, prominent, national retail chain stores, such as Target and Saks Fifth Avenue, believe that if they were to stop accepting Visa and MasterCard general purpose cards they would lose significant sales. Consequently, these merchants believe they must accept Visa and MasterCard, even in the face of very large price increases. (See Scully (Target Stores) Dep. at 65-67; Rodgers (Saks) Dep. at 49-50, 58-59.) Even merchants that have profit margins as low as three percent, such as Publix Supermarkets, feel compelled to accept general purpose cards. (See Tr. 378, 399-400 (Woods, Publix).) In setting interchange rates paid by merchants to issuers (through the merchants’ acquiring banks), both Visa and MasterCard consider, and have considered, primarily each other’s interchange rates, and secondarily the merchant discount rates charged by Discover and American Express. (See Heuer (MasterCard) Dep. at 55-57; Fairbank (Capital One) Dep. at 50-52; Boardman (Visa Int’l) Dep. at 158-59; Ex. P-0717 at VU0282142; Ex. P-0514 at MET003814.) The costs to merchants of accepting cash, checks, debit, or proprietary cards were not a factor. (See Heasley (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 99-100.) In addition, general purpose card networks also track each other’s merchant charges. (See Ex. P-0827; Sheedy (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 47.) And when tracking “competitors,” defendants look to the major general purpose card networks, not to other payment methods. (See, e.g., Ex. P-1110 at MC51959; Ex. P-1169.) Although the defendants seek here to define the market more broadly, large numbers of defendants’ documents explicitly recognize the existence of a separate general purpose card market. For example, Visa research showed that the “source of volume for [the] New Premium Product” was MasterCard, Discover, and American Express. (Ex. P-0822 at VU 1371788.) There was no indication that the new premium card would displace consumer spending on cash, checks, debit cards or private label cards. In these documents, defendants calculate their “market” shares among general purpose card networks only. No percentages for cash, checks, debit or store cards are included in these calculations and pie charts. Finally, although it is literally true that, in a general sense, cash and checks compete with general purpose cards as an option for payment by consumers and that growth in payments via cards takes share from cash and checks in some instances, cash and checks do not drive many of the means of competition in the general purpose card market. In this respect, Prof. Katz’s analogy of the general purpose card market to that for airplane travel is illustrative. Prof. Katz argues that while it is true that at the margin there is some competition for customers among planes, trains, cars and buses, the reality is that airplane travel is a distinct product in which airlines are the principal drivers of competition. Any airline that had monopoly power over airline travel could raise prices or limit output without significant concern about competition from other forms of transportation. The same holds true for competition among general purpose credit and charge cards. (See M. Katz Dir. Test. ¶¶ 11,127.) Accordingly, because card consumers have very little sensitivity to price increases in the card market and because neither consumers nor the defendants view debit, cash and checks as reasonably interchangeable with credit cards, general purpose cards constitute a product market. 2. General Purpose Card Network Services Constitute a Relevant Product Market More importantly, general purpose card network services also constitute a product market because merchant consumers exhibit little price sensitivity and the networks provide core services that cannot reasonably be replaced by other sources. General purpose card networks provide the infrastructure and mechanisms through which general purpose card transactions are conducted, including the authorization, settlement, and clearance of transactions. (See Tr. 3197 (B. Katz, Visa U.S.A./Visa Int’l); Afriek (MasterCard) Dep. at 11-12, 14-19.) Merchant acceptance of a card brand is also defined and controlled at the system level and the merchant discount rate is established, directly or indirectly, by the networks. (See Tr. 6134-35 (Pindyck, MasterCard); Tr. 2218-19 (Saunders, Household/Fleet); Flanagan (MasterCard) Dep. at 50-51.) These basic or core functions are indispensably done at the network level. (-See Tr. 5979-80; 5984-85 (Schmalensee).) Professor Katz also used the Merger Guidelines price sensitivity test to confirm the existence of a network services market. He noted that because costs attributable to system services are less than two percent of total credit card issuing costs, a ten percent increase in system service prices would translate to less than a 0.2 percent increase in issuers’ total costs. Since issuers — the buyers of systems services — earn margins of about 26%, a 0.2 percent increase in their total costs would have a negligible effect on the profitability of issuing credit and charge cards. I adopt Prof. Katz’s opinion that there would be no loss to network transaction volume in the face of even a 10% increase in price for network services — both because banks cannot provide the core system services themselves and it is implausible that they would exit the profitable credit and charge card market in response to such a small increase in price. Professor Katz recognized that theoretically an increase in network service prices could also lead to a reduction in network transaction volume if issuers passed the price increase to downstream consumers of credit cards, who then responded by switching to other means of payment. However, since the 0.2% price increase to issuers would result in an even smaller percentage increase in the prices charged to cardholders, cardholders would have to have an unrealistically high level of price sensitivity before the system service price increase would become unprofitable to a hypothetical network monopolist. Accordingly, the Guidelines price test confirms the existence of a credit card network services market. Moreover, Visa and MasterCard do not dispute that they participate in the general purpose card network services market, or that in that market they compete against American Express and Discover as networks. As Visa has explained, “[Discover] and American Express perform precisely the same ‘system’ functions as Visa and MasterCard, they just happen to do it themselves. That hardly means that there is no competition at that level.” (Ex. P-1187H at 24, n.47; Defs.’ Proposed Conclusions of Law ¶ 148.) In fact, Visa identified a network market of intersystem competition as a relevant market for antitrust purposes in the Mountain West litigation and admitted that such competition impacts consumer welfare, stating “[l]est there be any confusion, the ultimate impact of any harm to system level competition is felt by cardholders and merchants who use or accept general purpose charge cards.” Both former Visa CEO Bennet Katz and Visa’s primary expert, Dean Schmalensee, agree that that position remains true today. (See Ex. P-1245 at 48; Tr. 3190-91 (B. Katz, Visa U.S.A./Visa Int’l); id. at 5985-87 (Schmalensee).) MasterCard also confirmed that systems competition affects consumer welfare. Professor Pindyck, its expert economist, testified that the exit of MasterCard from the systems market would result in significant consumer harm. (See Tr. 6108, 6113-16, 6120 (Pindyck, MasterCard).) 3. The United States is the Relevant Geographic Market The United States is the appropriate geographic scope for the general purpose card product market and the general purpose card core systems services market for several reasons. (See Tr. 3187-88 (B. Katz, Visa U.S.A./Visa Int’l); id. at 1459 (Hart, Advanta/MasterCard); Ex. P-1235 at ¶ 143.) First, the exclusionary rules at issue are specific to the United States. Second, many other important decisions affecting the United States, including pricing, are made by the associations’ U.S. Region Board and committees. (See Williamson (Visa Int’l) Dep. at 103-04.) Third, the national card base and acceptance network are critical assets that a system must possess to compete, because consumers principally purchase from merchants in the same country. Fourth, significant competition among issuers — the buyers of system services — occurs at the national level. Lastly, there is a national media market and systems pursue national promotional strategies. (See M. Katz. Aff. ¶ 154.) B. Defendants Have Market Power in the Network Market The Government claims that defendants have market power in the market for general purpose card network services because they have the power to raise prices and lower output and/or innovation, either jointly or separately. Market power is defined as the “power to control prices or exclude competition.” (du Pont, 351 U.S. at 391, 76 S.Ct. 994, see Kodak, 504 U.S. at 481, 112 S.Ct. 2072, id. at 464, 112 S.Ct. 2072 (“ability of a single seller to raise price and restrict output”) National Collegiate Athletic Ass’n v. Board of Regents of the Univ. of Olda., 468 U.S. 85, 109 n. 38, 104 S.Ct. 2948, 82 L.Ed.2d 70 (1984) (“Market power is the ability to raise prices above those that would be charged in a competitive market.”); see also K.M.B. Warehouse Distribs. v. Walker Mfg. Co., 61 F.3d 123, 129 (2d Cir.1995) (“the ability to raise price significantly above the competitive level without losing all of one’s business”).) Market power may be shown by evidence of “specific conduct indicating the defendant’s power to control prices or exclude competition.” (K.M.B. Warehouse, 61 F.3d at 129.) In this regard, plaintiff has proven through the testimony of merchants that they cannot refuse to accept Visa and MasterCard even in the face of significant price increases because the cards are such preferred payment methods that customers would choose not to shop at merchants who do not accept them. (See Scully (Target stores) Dep. at 83-85; Rodgers (Saks) Dep. at 49-50, 58-59, 133; Tr. 692 (Zyda, Amazon.com); id. at 399-400 (Woods, Publix stores).) In addition, both Visa and MasterCard have recently raised interchange rates charged to merchants a number of times, without losing a single merchant customer as a result. (See Ex. P-1036 at DOJTE000242 (Visa U.S.A. interrogatory response stating that it was aware of no merchant that had discontinued accepting Visa cards since January 1998 “due, in whole or in part, to an increase in [Visa U.S.A.’s] interchange rates or an increase in a merchant discount as a result of an increase in interchange.”); Schmidt (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 102; Schall (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 86; Beindorff (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 90; Heuer (MasterCard) Dep. at 52, 57-60; Pascarella (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 286-87; Shailesh Mehta (Providian) Dep. at 78-79, 163-64.) Defendants’ ability to price discriminate also illustrates their market power. Both Visa and MasterCard charge differing interchange fees based, in part, on the degree to which a given merchant category needs to accept general purpose cards. (See Ex. P-0024 at 0685656 (adopting an interchange strategy under which “[h]igher increases are recommended in [merchant] segments where the strategic value of bankcards is higher.”); see also Schmidt (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 100-02, 117-20 (Visa’s interchange pricing strategy considers the price sensitivities of different merchant segments); Pascarella (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 282-83, 285-86.) Transactions with catalog and Internet merchants, for example, which rely almost completely on general purpose cards, have higher interchange fees than ‘brick and mortar’ merchants. Defendants rationalize this difference by pointing to increased fraud in these merchant categories, but this explanation is belied by the fact that the Internet merchant, not Visa/MasterCard or their member banks, bears virtually all the risk of loss from fraudulent transactions. (See Tr. 686-87, 694 (Zyda, Amazon.com).) Even today, Amazon’s fraud rate is lower than mail-order companies, yet it is charged (indirectly, through the merchant discount) the same interchange fee as these mail order companies. The reality is that Visa and MasterCard are able to charge substantially different prices for those hundreds of thousands of merchants who must take credit cards at any price because their customers insist on using those cards. As will be discussed below, there is also evidence that the exclusionary rules adopted by the associations reduce output and consumer choice by denying American Express and Discover the opportunity to issue cards through bank issuers who issue Visa and MasterCard. Of course, even if direct evidence of the ability to raise prices and reduce output or innovation were absent, it may be presumed that a firm with a large share of a highly concentrated market with high barriers to entry possesses market power. (See Kodak, 504 U.S. at 464, 112 S.Ct. 2072 (Market power “ordinarily is inferred from the seller’s possession of a predominant share of the market.”)); FTC v. Staples, Inc., 970 F.Supp. 1066, 1081-82 (D.D.C.1997) (evidence of market share and entry barriers have commonly been central to market power analysis.) At least in the absence of countervailing circumstances, market power exists when market share is sufficiently high and there are significant enough barriers to entry or expansion that the defendant can charge supracompetitive prices without loss of so many customers that the pricing becomes unprofitable. (See, e.g., Southern Pacific Co. v. AT & T, 740 F.2d 980, 1001 (D.C.Cir.1984); cf. Ryko Mfg. Co. v. Eden Servs., 823 F.2d 1215, 1232 (8th Cir.1987) (market power analysis); Ball Memorial Hospital, Inc. v, Mutual Hospital Ins., Inc., 784 F.2d 1325, 1335-36 (7th Cir.1986) (same).) In this case, even a cursory examination of the relevant characteristics of the network market reveals that whether considered jointly or separately, the defendants have, market power. Visa and MasterCard both have large market shares in a highly concentrated network market with only four significant competitors. In 1999 Visa members accounted for approximately 47% of the dollar volume of credit and charge card transactions and MasterCard members for approximately 26%. American Express accounted for approximately 20% and Discover for approximately 6%. Visa and MasterCard together control over 73 percent of the volume of transactions on general purpose cards in the United States. In terms of cards issued, they control about 85 percent of the market. (See Ex. D-4118.) Furthermore, there are significant barriers to entry into the general purpose card network services market. Visa’s CEO described starting a new network as a “monumental” task involving expenditures and investment of over $1 billion. (See Tr. 5224 (Pascarella, Visa U.S.A.); see also Dahir (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 200-01 (building a global brand and acceptance network would cost between $2 and $5 billion).) In addition to the high costs of establishing a network and developing a brand name a new entrant must also solve the so-called “chicken-and-egg” problem of developing a merchant acceptance network without an initial network of cardholders who, in turn, are needed to induce merchants to accept the system’s cards in the first place. The difficulties associated with entering the network market are exemplified by the fact that no company has entered since Discover did so in 1985. Both AT & T and Citibank conducted entry analyses, but decided it would be unprofitable. (See M. Katz Dir. Test. ¶ 181.) John Reed, then co-CEO of Citibank, concluded that an entrant would need to capture a 20 to 25 percent market share to be successful. (See Reed Dep. at 38-41.) Although the defendants argue that non-traditional .companies, such as AT & T, America Online, Microsoft and others, including companies offering Internet-based alternative currencies, should be seen as potential entrants, the evidence shows otherwise. Visa and MasterCard do not regard these firms as competitors. Rather they are viewed by the associations as potential allies and partners, posing no significant threat to defendants’ market share in general purpose card transactions. (See Fehringer (Visa Int’l) Dep. at 28-29; Ailworth (Visa U.S.A.) Dep. at 90-93,105-06.) The higher the barriers to entry, and the longer the lags before new entry, the less likely it is that potential entrants would be able to enter the market in a timely, likely, and sufficient scale to deter or counteract any anticompetitive restraints. (See Dep’t of Justice and Fed’l Trade Commn. Merger Guidelines, § 3.0.) Where barriers to entry are high, such as here, “a monopolist would find it easier to raise prices because it would be unlikely that a competitor would, or could, enter the market.” (Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. v. May Dept. Stores, 881 F.Supp. 860, 876 (W.D.N.Y.1994); see also Kelco Disposal Inc. v. Browning-Ferris Indus. of Vermont, Inc., 845 F.2d 404, 408 (2d Cir.1988) (high barriers to entry shown by fact that only two companies entered market in eleven year period and significant costs to enter impeded new entrants); Fineman v. Armstrong World Indus., 980 F.2d 171, 201-03 (3d Cir.1992).) Finally, Dean Schmalensee’s own description of the network market characteristics aptly makes the point that “[t]here are, at most, five viable system competitors within the general purpose charge card market and entry of a new system is quite difficult.” (Tr. 5987-88; see also Ex. P-1040 at DOJTE000289.) Because Visa and MasterCard have large shares in a highly concentrated market with significant barriers to entry, both defendants have market power in the general purpose card network services market, whether measured jointly or separately; furthermore plaintiff has demonstrated that both Visa and MasterCard have raised prices and restricted output without losing merchant customers. C. The Rule of Reason and Unreasonable Restraints of Trade A showing of market power in the relevant market does not alone establish a Sherman Act violation; rather a showing of market power must be associated with some form of abusive conduct. In this case the abusive conduct alleged is the impeding of the competitive process by the associations’ dual governance structure and their exclusionary rules. According to the plaintiff, dual governance affects the incentives of directors whose banks have a substantial interest in the other association, thereby causing less than vigorous competition between the two largest general purpose card networks in a highly concentrated market with only a handful of participants. Plaintiff also alleges that defendants’ exclusionary rules restrain the competitive abilities of the networks that their members do not own, which not only limits their competitiveness but also allows the associations and their members to temper the competitive vitality of network and issuer-level competition. Plaintiff alleges that as a result of these restraints on the competitive process, consumers are denied the benefits of full competition, namely innovative and varied products and services as well as a marketplace responsive to consumer preferences. Although the Sherman Act, by its terms, prohibits every agreement “in restraint of trade,” it is clear “that Congress intended to outlaw only unreasonable restraints.” (State Oil Co. v. Khan, 522 U.S. 3, 10, 118 S.Ct. 275, 139 L.Ed.2d 199 (1997).) Certain agreements, like price-fixing or market-division agreements, are condemned as unreasonable per se. (See id., at 10, 118 S.Ct. 275; Palmer v. BRG of Georgia, Inc., 498 U.S. 46, 111 S.Ct. 401, 112 L.Ed.2d 349 (1990); United States v. Topco Associates, Inc., 405 U.S. 596, 92 S.Ct. 1126, 31 L.Ed.2d 515 (1972); United States v. Socony-Vacuum Oil Co., 310 U.S. 150, 60 S.Ct. 811, 84 L.Ed. 1129 (1940).) Other agreements are analyzed under the rule of reason. Plaintiff and defendants agree that analysis of the defendants’ agreements as to dual governance and their exclusionary rules involves application of the rule of reason. That rule seeks to “determine whether the restraints in the agreement are reasonable in light of their actual effects on the market and their procompetitive justifications.” (Clorox Co. v. Sterling Winthrop, Inc., 117 F.3d 50, 56 (2d Cir.1997).) Any agreement is unlawful (under the rule of reason) if its restrictive effect on competition is not reasonably necessary to achieving a “legitimate procompetitive objective, i.e., an interest in serving consumers through lowering costs, improving products, etc.” (National Soc’y of Prof'l Eng’rs v. United States, 435 U.S. 679, 691, 98 S.Ct. 1355, 55 L.Ed.2d 637 (1978).) The most full-fledged rule of reason analysis requires that “the factfinder weigh [ ] all of the circumstances of a case ...(Continental T.V., Inc. v. GTE Sylvania, Inc., 433 U.S. 36, 49, 97 S.Ct. 2549, 53 L.Ed.2d 568 (1977); see also State Oil, 522 U.S. at 10, 118 S.Ct. 275 (rule of reason analysis takes into account a variety of factors)) The Supreme Court’s decision in Chicago Board of Trade v. United States, 246 U.S. 231, 38 S.Ct. 242, 62 L.Ed. 683 (1918), still remains “[t]he classic articulation of how the rule of reason analysis should be undertaken.” (Capital Imaging Assocs., P.C. v. Mohawk Valley Med. Assoc., Inc., 996 F.2d 537, 543 (2d Cir.1993).) According to the Chicago Board of Trade ease: [t]he true test of legality is whether the restraint imposed is such as merely regulates and perhaps thereby promotes competition or whether it is such as may suppress or even destroy competition. To determine that question the court must ordinarily consider the facts peculiar to the business to which the restraint is applied; its condition before and after the restraint was imposed; the nature of the restraint and its effect, actual or probable. The history of the restraint, the evil believed to exist, the reason for adopting the particular remedy, the purpose or end sought to be attained, are all relevant facts. This is not because a good intention will save an otherwise objectionable regulation or the reverse; but because knowledge of intent may help the court to interpret facts and to predict consequences. (City of Chicago, 246 U.S. at 234, 38 S.Ct. at 245; see also North American Soccer League v. National Football League, 670 F.2d 1249, 1259 (2d Cir.1982)) Importantly, the broad sweep of the rule of reason “does not open the field of antitrust inquiry to any argument in favor of a challenged restraint that may fall within the realm of reason.” (National Soc’y of Prof'l Eng’rs, 435 U.S. at 688, 98 S.Ct. 1355.) Rather, the rule of reason “focuses directly on the challenged restraint’s impact on competitive conditions.” (Id.; see also id. at 691, 98 S.Ct. 1355 (“the inquiry mandated by the Rule of Reason is whether the challenged agreement is one that promotes competition or one that suppresses competition”).) The extent of the required analysis, however, depends on the type and circumstances of the restraint at issue. (See California Dental Ass’n v. FTC, 526 U.S. 756, 780, 119 S.Ct. 1604, 143 L.Ed.2d 935 (1999).) For example, where “the great likelihood of anticompetitive effects [from the restraint at issue] can easily be ascertained,” an elaborate examination of market circumstances is not required. (See California Dental Ass’n, 526 U.S. at 770-71, 119 S.Ct. 1604; FTC v. Indiana Fed’n of Dentists, 476 U.S. 447, 459, 106 S.Ct. 2009, 90 L.Ed.2d 445 (1986); NCAA v. Board of Regents, 468 U.S. 85, 110, 104 S.Ct. 2948, 82 L.Ed.2d 70 (1984); National Soc’y of Prof. Eng’rs, 435 U.S. at 692-93, 98 S.Ct. 1355.) Under this so-called “quick look” analysis, where “an observer with even a rudimentary understanding of economics could conclude that the arrangements in question would have an anticom-petitive effect on customers and markets,” a “quick look analysis carries the day.” (California Dental Ass’n, 526 U S. at 770, 119 S.Ct. 1604.) The court need not consider whether this case could have been decided based on a “quick look” rule of reason analysis. As a practical matter, the parties and the court have already undertaken a thorough analysis of the alleged restraints and their impact on the relevant markets; it would make little sense for the court to disregard any of the evidence presented. The core of Section 1 inquiry is whether the challenged restraint is “unreasonable,” i.e., whether its anticompetitive effects outweigh its procompetitive effects (Atlantic Richfield Co. v. USA Petroleum Co., 495 U.S. 328, 342 & n. 12, 110 S.Ct. 1884, 109 L.Ed.2d 333 (1990)) and, therefore, “whether the challenged agreement is one that promotes competition or one that suppresses competition.” (National Soc’y of Prof. Eng’rs, 435 U.S. at 691, 98 S.Ct. 1355); see California Dental Ass’n, 526 U.S. at 772-73, 119 S.Ct. 1604 (Section 1 condemns agreements with “net anticom-petitive effect”; agreement would be “anti-competitive, not procompetitive” unless “any costs to competition associated with the elimination of across-the-board advertising will be outweighed by gains to consumer information (and hence competition)” from restrictive rule). Identifying “anticompetitive effects” under the rule of reason involves analysis of whether the competitive process itself has been harmed. (See Sullivan v. National Football League, 34 F.3d 1091, 1096-97 (1st Cir.1994) (defining “anticompetitive effects” as “injury to competition” or “harm to the competitive process”).) “Restraints on competition [do not constitute antitrust violations unless they] have or [are] intended to have an effect upon prices in the market or otherwise ... deprive purchasers or consumers of the advantages which they derive from free competition.” (Apex Hosiery Co. v. Leader, 310 U.S. 469, 500-01, 60 S.Ct. 982, 84 L.Ed. 1811 (1940); United States v. Brown Univ., 5 F.3d 658, 668 (3d Cir.1993) (identifying “reduction in output, ... increase in price [and] deterioration in quality” as anticompetitive effects in rule of reason analysis); Tunis Bros. Co. v. Ford Motor Co., 952 F.2d 715, 728 (3d Cir.1991) (“An antitrust plaintiff must prove that challenged conduct affected the prices, quantity or quality of goods or services.”); Wilk v. American Med. Ass’n, 895 F.2d 352, 360-62 (7th Cir.1990) (finding that impeding consumers’ free choice and raising costs of some health care providers w