Full opinion text
MEMORANDUM OPINION AND ORDER PETER C. ECONOMUS, District Judge. Presently pending before the Court is the Plaintiffs’ Motion for a Preliminary Injunction (Doc. 17). For the reasons that follow, the motion is GRANTED and the Court issues the preliminary injunctive relief specified herein. I. Plaintiffs the Ohio State Conference of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People; the League of Women Voters of Ohio; the Bethel African Methodist Episcopal Church; Omega Baptist Church; College Hill Community Church Presbyterian, U.S.A.; the A. Philip Randolph Institute; and Darryl Fairchild bring the instant action challenging the impact of a recent amendment to the Ohio Revised Code and directives issued by Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted to Ohio’s early in-person voting (“EIP voting”) scheme under the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The Defendants include Secretary Husted and Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, both sued in their official capacities. The Ohio General Assembly enacted the EIP voting scheme in 2005 as a result of the problems, including long lines and wait times, faced by voters during the 2004 presidential election. The scheme permits all voters to vote by absentee ballot either by mail or in person without having to provide an acceptable excuse as previously required for absentee voting. Ohio Rev. Code. § 3509.02(A). Each county Board of Elections (“Board”) is permitted to establish only one location for EIP voting. See Ohio Rev.Code § 3501.10(C). Prior to June 1, 2014, the Boards were required to provide absentee ballots for most voters for either EIP voting or mail-in voting starting on the 35th day before an election. Id. § 3509.01(B)(2) (2014) (as amended Feb. 25, 2014). As Ohio law requires citizens to be registered only thirty days prior to an election in order to be eligible to vote, Ohio Const. Art. 5, § 1; Ohio Rev. Code § 3503.01(A), prior to June 2014, a several day period existed wherein a citizen could register to vote and cast a ballot on the same day. The Plaintiffs refer to this period as “Golden Week.” On November 13, 2013, the Ohio Senate introduced Senate Bill 238 (“SB 238”), which was subsequently passed by the Ohio House of Representatives and Senate on February 19, 2014, and signed into law by Ohio Governor John Kasich on February 21st. SB 238 amended subsection 3509.01(B) to read in part that, “[f]or all voters who are applying to vote absent voter’s ballots in person, ballots shall be printed and ready for use beginning on the first day after the close of voter registration before the election.” Ohio Rev.Code § 3509.01(B)(3). This amendment, which the Plaintiffs now challenge, eliminates Golden Week and reduces the available days for EIP voting from 35 to 28. It became effective June 1, 2014. SB 238’s amendments thus apply to the 2014 general election, which is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2014. Races to be contested during the election include those for Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer, Auditor, seats for the United States House of Representatives, and seats in the General Assembly. The Plaintiffs also challenge recent directives issued by Secretary Husted setting uniform EIP voting hours for the entire state for future elections. On February, 25, 2014, Secretary Husted issued Directive 2014-06, which set hours for the 2014 primary and general elections but did not include EIP voting hours for the Sunday and Monday immediately preceding Election Day. (Pis. Ex. 36, Doc. 18-36.) Directive 2014-06 also did not include EIP voting hours for: Tuesday, September 30, 2014 through Monday, October 6th (days that could have been used for EIP voting but for the operation of SB 238); Saturday, October 11th; Sunday, October 12th; Monday, October 13th (Columbus Day); Saturday, October 18th; Sunday, October 19th; and Sunday, October 26th. (Pis. Ex. 36, Doc. 18-36.) Moreover, Directive 2014-06 does not include evening EIP voting hours on any day, instead setting typical hours of 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. for all weekdays and 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. for Saturday, October 25th and Saturday, November 1st. (Pis. Ex. 36, Doc. 18-36.) On June 11, 2014, this Court issued a permanent injunction in Obama for America et al. v. Husted et at, 2:12-cv-636, requiring Husted to restore EIP voting on the three days preceding all future elections and to set uniform voting hours for those days. Obama for Am. v. Husted, Case No. 2:12-cv-636, Doc. 90 at 2 (S.D.Ohio June 11, 2014). As a result, Secretary Husted issued Directive 2014-17, which superseded Directive 2014-06. (Pls. Ex. 37, Doc. 18-37.) Directive 2014-17 is apparently intended to set uniform EIP voting hours for all future elections and includes three categories of elections: (A) Presidential General Elections; (B) Presidential Primary Elections and Gubernatorial General Elections; and (C) Regular Municipal Elections, Primary Elections, and Special Elections. (See Pls. Ex. 37, Doc. 18-37.) The section covering Gubernatorial General Elections, which would include the 2014 General Election, sets identical EIP voting hours as Directive 2014-06 when applied to the 2014 voting season except that it adds voting hours on Sunday, November 2nd and Monday, November 3rd as required by the permanent injunction in Obama for America. (Pls. Ex. 37, Doc. 18-37.) Aside from the permanent injunction, which applies only to the final three days of early voting, Secretary Husted’s legal authority for requiring the individual Boards to adhere to uniform EIP voting hours is unclear as no Ohio statute requires uniform EIP voting hours throughout the state. Further, the Ohio Revised Code vests the Boards with general authority to set their own business hours, providing that: The board of elections in each county shall keep its offices, or one or more of its branch registration offices, open for the performance of its duties until nine p.m. on the last day of registration before a general or primary election. At all other times during each week, the board shall keep its offices and rooms open for a period of time that the board considers necessary for the performance of its duties. Ohio Rev.Code § 3501.10(B). Each Board is comprised of four members, and the Secretary of State is given the final authority to resolve tie votes or disagreements within individual Boards. Id. § 3501.11(X). However, the Plaintiffs in neither Obama for America nor the instant case have directly challenged Secretary Husted’s practice in attempting to set uniform voting hours, which began with the 2012 Presidential Election. (See Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶¶ 15,17, Doc. 62 at 3.) On May 1, 2014, the Plaintiffs filed their complaint stating claims under the Equal Protection Clause and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The Plaintiffs generally assert that SB 238’s amendments to Ohio election law and the current EIP voting schedule established by Directive 2014-06 (now 2014-17) impermissi-bly burden the right to vote of various groups including African Americans, lower income individuals, and the homeless. Specifically, the Plaintiffs argue that the voting opportunities for members of these' groups are disproportionately impacted by the elimination of Golden Week, the lack of evening voting hours during the EIP voting period, and the lack of EIP voting opportunities on any Sunday during the voting period except for the last Sunday before an election. On June 30, 2014, the Plaintiffs moved for a preliminary injunction enjoining the enforcement of SB 238 and requiring Secretary Husted “to set uniform and suitable in-person early-voting hours for all eligible voters that includes multiple Sundays and weekday evening hours.” (Doc. 17 at 61.) Following the completion of briefing and a hearing held on August 11, 2014, that motion is now ripe for consideration. In deciding the motion, the Court has duly considered: the briefs, authorities, and evidence submitted by the Parties; their arguments at the hearing; the briefs and exhibits submitted by Amici Curiae the Ohio General Assembly, Cuya-hoga County, Ohio, and the Ohio Senate Democratic Caucus and the Ohio House Democratic Caucus; and the statement of interest of the United States. II. As an initial matter, Secretary Husted argues that the Plaintiffs’ motion is barred by laches, pointing out that they filed the motion 98 days before early voting is to begin, 125 days after Directive 2014-06 was issued, and 60 days after they filed their complaint. Secretary Husted acknowledges that the Plaintiffs provided notice in their complaint that they intended to seek a preliminary injunction, but argues that the delay in filing the motion greatly prejudices the Defendants because they will have, to conduct unnecessarily expedited discovery. He asserts that the “Defendants have been forced to respond to the Plaintiffs’ 51-page motion and hundreds of pages of exhibits and reports in just three weeks and two days.” (Response, Doc. 41 at 48-50.) “It is well established that in election-related matters, extreme diligence and promptness are required. When a party fails to exercise diligence in seeking extraordinary relief in an election-related matter, laches may bar the claim.” McClafferty v, Portage Count Bd. of Elections, 661 F.Supp.2d 826, 839 (N.D.Ohio 2009) (internal citations and quotation marks omitted). “Laches is the ‘negligent and unintentional failure to protect one’s rights,’ ” and “[t]he doctrine is rooted in the notion that ‘those who sleep on their rights lose them.’ ” Id. at 840 (citations omitted). “To invoke ... laches, a party must show: (1) lack of diligence by the party against whom the defense is asserted, and (2) prejudice to the party asserting it.” Ford Motor Co. v. Catalanotte, 342 F.3d 543, 550 (6th Cir.2003) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). The Court finds that Secretary Husted has not shown such a lack of diligence. While the Defendants have been forced to respond quickly to a 51-page motion and voluminous exhibits, Defendant Husted does not demonstrate how such extensive materials should have been produced sooner by the Plaintiffs. The Court therefore rejects Secretary Husted’s argument regarding laches. III. The Court will now summarize the evidence submitted by the Parties and Amici Curiae and its factual findings. The Court will first discuss EIP voting opportunities as they existed during the 2008, 2010, and 2012 elections. Second, the Court will discuss the origins of and asserted justifications for SB 238 and Secretary Husted’s directives. Third, the Court will briefly discuss overall voting opportunities available to voters during the 2014 general election and the mechanics of voting by mail. Finally, the Court will consider the anecdotal and statistical evidence, including the opinions of the Parties’ experts, either supporting or refuting the Plaintiffs’ position that the combined effects of SB 238 and Directive 2014-17 disproportionately burden the voting rights of certain groups of Ohio voters. A. EIP Voting During the 2008, 2010, 2012 General Elections As noted in Section I supra, prior to the 2012 election, each Board exercised its discretion to set EIP voting hours and days. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 6, Doc. 62 at 2.) In the event that a Board reached a tie vote on voting hours, the Secretary of State broke such ties in favor of the Board’s normal business hours. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 6, Doc. 62 at 2.) As a result, the 2008 and 2010 elections presented a patchwork of available EIP voting days and hours throughout the State, especially with regard to the availability of weekend and evening voting hours. In the 2008 election, seven of Ohio’s 88 counties held EIP voting hours on the Sunday before the election, but not all were open for the same hours. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 7, Doc. 62 at 2.) During that election six counties—Cuyahoga, Franklin, Summit, Lucas, Trumbull, and Montgomery—allowed EIP voting on more than one Sunday during 'the EIP voting period, but, again, all were not open for the same hours. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶8, Doc. 62 at 2.) Further, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Summit, Greene, Delaware, Richland, Darke, Geau-ga, Montgomery, Harrison, Highland, Jackson, Lorain, Pickaway, Portage, and Trumbull Counties held voting hours on more than two Saturdays. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 9, Doc. 62 at 2.) The record also indicates that, during the 2008 election, eight counties— Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Jackson, Pickaway, Summit, and Trumbull—offered some weekday evening EIP voting hours in addition to being open until 9 p.m. on the last day of registration. (Doc. 65-2.) Finally, 67,408 voters cast in-person ballots during the first week of EIP voting, and 12,842 voters registered or updated their registration and voted at the same time. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 10, Doc. 62 at 3.) Turning to the 2010 election, which like the upcoming general election included the race for Governor but not President, five counties held EIP voting hours on the Sunday before the election, but all were not open for the same hours. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 11, Doc. 62 at 3.) Richland, Lorain, Geauga, Butler, Hamilton, Summit, and Greene Counties held EIP voting hours on more than two Saturdays. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 12, Doc. 62 at 3.) Additionally, 13 counties—Butler, Cuy-ahoga, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Henry, Highland, Lucas, Medina, Montgomery, Pickaway, Summit, and Lorain—held EIP voting past 5 p.m. on at least one day other than the last day of registration. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 13, Doc. 62 at 3; Doc. 65-3 at 5 (Lorain County).) During the 2010 election, 26,230 voters cast in-person ballots during the first week of the EIP voting period, and 1,651 voters registered to vote or updated their registration. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 14, Doc. 62 at 3.) A key issue in this case is the impact of SB 238 and Secretary Husted’s directives on African American voters. According to evidence submitted by the Plaintiffs, African' Americans make up 13.4% of Ohio’s population. (Doc. 18-9 at 1.) The majority live in urban areas, with nearly 4 out of 10 living in the cities of Columbus (Franklin County), Cleveland (Cuyahoga County), and Cincinnati (Hamilton County). (Id.) As of the 2010 census, the Ohio counties with the highest population of African Americans are, in order, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, Lucas, Summit, and Mahoning. (Id.) These counties also have the highest percentage of African Americans when measured in proportion to total population. (Doc. 18-9 at 1.) The Plaintiffs argue that the limitations on Sunday voting opportunities imposed by Directive 2014-17 will burden the African-American voting phenomenon known as “Souls to the Polls,” wherein African Americans have purportedly voted in person in large numbers following Sunday church services during the EIP voting period. The Defendants point out that, during the 2008 and 2010 elections, only a handful of Ohio’s 88 counties offered EIP voting on Sundays. (Damschroder Dec. ¶¶ 36-37, Doc. 41-9 at 7.) However, the record reflects that the counties that did so include the very .counties with the highest African American populations in the State. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 8, Doc. 62 at 2 (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Lucas, Montgomery, Summit, and Trumbull Counties were open on more than one Sunday in 2008); Doc. 65-3 (Cuy-ahoga, Franklin, Lucas, Montgomery, and Summit Counties held Sunday voting in 2010); Doc. 18-9 at 1 (population statistics).) Also at issue in this case is the impact on certain groups of voters of Directive 2014-17’s lack of weekday evening voting hours during the EIP voting period. For purposes of this Memorandum Opinion and Order, the Court defines evening hours as voting hours after 5 p.m. The Court notes that during the 2010 election, the 13 counties offering some weekday evening EIP voting hours in addition to being open until 9 p.m. on the last day of registration included Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Lucas, Montgomery, and Summit; the six Ohio counties with the largest African American populations. (Doc. 65-3 (voting hours); Doc. 18-9 (population statistics).) As stated in Part I supra, for the 2012 Presidential Election, Secretary Husted set uniform hours for EIP voting to be followed by all Boards. Directives 2012-35 (applicable to all but the final three days of the EIP voting period) and 2012-50 established the following schedule during the five weeks of the period: on the first week, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Tuesday through Friday; on the second week, on which Monday was Columbus Day, 8 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Tuesday (the last day of voter registration) and 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Wednesday through Friday; on the third week, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Monday through Friday; on the fourth week, 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Monday through Friday; on the fifth week, 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Monday through .Thursday, 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Friday, and 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Saturday; and on the week of Election Day, 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. on Sunday and 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Monday. (Docs. 18-34, 18-35.) Thus, the 2012 EIP voting period included only one Saturday and one Sunday of voting but ten days with evening voting hours not counting the second Tuesday of the period, which was the last day of registration. According to evidence submitted by the Defendants, during Golden Week before the 2012 election, 89,224 voters voted in person and 5,844 voters registered and voted on the same day. (Levenson Dec. 7/30/2014 ¶ 52, Doc. 53-3 at 3.) B. SB 238 and Directive 2014-17 The EIP voting period schedule resulting from SB 238 and Directive 2014-17 largely mirrors recommendations made by the Ohio Association of Election Officials (“OAEO”) in a report titled “Report and Recommendations for Absentee Voting Reform.” (See Doc. 41-19.) The background section of the report states that: In 2010, the [OAEO] began exploring possible ways to reform our absentee voting statutes by commissioning a task force of six members from different political parties and different sized counties. In 2012, the Task Force was reconstituted to include eight members, four from each political party, with adequate representation from small, medium and large counties. This Task Force made a series of recommendations that were amended and passed by our bipartisan legislative committee. The amended recommendations were then ratified by the trustees of the OAEO. Our board of trustees is comprised of 20 members, equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, equal numbers of board members and staff, and representative of different sized counties. (Id. at 2.) According to the report, “the courts have recently held that equal protection issues arise when absentee voters are treated differently. Thus, the association entered into discussions with the ultimate goal of creating uniform rules for absentee voters across the state.” (Id.) The report’s recommendations regarding EIP voting are to “[standardize hours of early in-person absentee voting from county to county,” “[d]ifferentiate between the various types of elections,” and “[t]reat early in-person absentee voters the same as Election Day voters rather than the same as mail-in absentee voters.” (Id. at 3.) The report then goes on to propose standard hours for three categories of elections that are very similar to those adopted by Secretary Husted in Directive 2014-17. (See Id. at 4.) Finally, with regard to Golden Week, the report states that “OAEO feels that the overall time frame should be shortened to eliminate ‘Golden Week[.]’ ” (Id. at 4.) The justifications behind the OAEO’s recommendation to eliminate Golden Week were explained by Aaron Ockerman, Executive Director of the OAEO in testimony before the Senate State Government Oversight and Reform Committee. Concerning the overall reduction in EIP voting days, Ockerman testified that: While we understand that reducing the number of days of absentee voting may not be “politically correct,” my members are not concerned about the politics of this proposal, but rather the policy reasons it makes sense. First, Ohio is an outlier in the days it allows for absentee voting to be conducted. Some states do not allow any in-person voting, while most allow 10 or 15 days of in-person voting. Those states that do allow in-person early voting presumably understand and accept what Ohio’s election officials also recognize to be true; absentee voting is a good thing, if reasonable parameters are put in place. (Doc. 41-20 at 2-3.) According to Ocker-man, “despite [the convenience of Ohio’s EIP voting scheme], our voter turnout numbers have dropped not risen, while the cost of administering elections has skyrocketed.” (Id. at 3.) Thus, “reasonably shortening] the period for casting absentee ballots” would provide a way for Boards to “continue to be ultra-customer friendly and reduce lines on Election Day while being more efficient with our tax payer [sic] dollars.” (Id. at 4.) Regarding the elimination of Golden Week, Ockerman testified that: A second reason for shortening the absentee voting period is to close what has come to be known as “Golden Week[.]” ... While this unique confluence of laws has existed on the books for some time, it was greatly exacerbated when Ohio moved to no-fault absentee voting. Ohio law does not allow for this activity known as “same day registration” to occur on Election Day and a statewide ballot attempt to allow for this was resoundingly rejected by voters when it was put before them. Ohio has a registration system and a registration deadline for very clear purposes, namely so that we can confirm that a voter is who they say they are before they cast a ballot. The overlap between the close of registration and the beginning of early in-person absentee voting places this system of checks and balances in jeopardy. I have had first hand conversations with election officials who have had votes count by people who fraudulently registered during this period, because the election officials could not confirm their registration status before Election Day. Only after their ballot was counted did they discover that the registration was fraudulent, but by then it was too late to do anything about it. People from both political parties who led reform efforts in 2009 and 2010 understood that this was an issue. Bills sponsored by members of both parties passed their respective chambers with provisions to remedy this included. (Doc. 41-20 at 4-5.) The record contains other testimony offered in support of SB 238. Chris Long, President of the Ohio Christian Alliance, testified that the creation of Golden Week was a legislative oversight and that the “obvious problem was that no time was allowed to vet the registration of the voter.” (Young Dec. Ex. 1, Doc. 54-3 at 5-6.) Dana Walch, Deputy Director of the Franklin County Board, testified that eliminating Golden Week would help to prevent fraud because, “[u]nder the current scenario, boards of elections must go through a lengthy process of holding a ‘Golden Week’ ballot until we gain confirmation that the newly registered person truly is who they say they are.” (Id. at Ex. 2; Doc. 54-3 at 8, 9.) Mary Siegel, one of the founders of the Ohio Voter Integrity Project also testified that Golden Week should be eliminated because of the potential for fraud—citing the case of a voter named “The God Devine Refinement Allah” who apparently registered and remained a registered voter (but did not cast a ballot) in Hamilton County between October 3, 2012 and October 2013. (Id. at Ex. 3; Doc. 54-3 at 12-13.) Ronald Koeh-ler, former Deputy Director, then Director, of the Summit County Board, testified that during Golden Week, only few voters voted, which served as a drain on resources. (Id. at Ex. 4; Doc. 54-3 at 15.) He also suggested that eliminating Golden Week would help reduce voter fraud. (See ■ id.) Finally, Senator Frank LaRose testified that “[s]ame day registration and voting has created a situation where boards of elections do not have adequate time to properly verify a registration application.” (Keeran Dec. Ex. 2; Doc. 54-4 at 10.) Brian Davis, Director of Community Organizing for the Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless, was among those testifying before the Ohio House of Representatives in opposition to SB 238. According to Davis, “[t]he value of Golden week is that those who struggle with identification can register and vote at the same time, and the Board of Elections has 30 days to verify if this individual is a legitimate voter in Ohio.” (Doc. 18-31 at 1-2, 4.) Davis further testified that: Allowing 35 days to vote and that overlap with Golden Week allows low income people to participate. Very low income citizens move their primary residence a great deal, and since the housing crisis swept the United States, this has only exacerbated the displacement of low income residents. Homeless people have an especially difficult time proving their residency since most of the acceptable forms of identification are tied to where you live. (Doc. 18-31 at 2.) Additionally, Secretary Husted submitted the declaration of Dana Walch. According to Walch, “[i]n general, expanding absentee voting requires additional funding because expanding the number of days the Board is open drives up costs. We have to provide for the extra staffing, extra security, facility costs, etc. Expanding hours has the same effect, that is, more hours means more money.” (Walch Dec. ¶ 8, Doc. 41-18 at 3.) Walch also stated that Franklin County’s early-voting center employed a staff of between 50 to 70 people during the 2012 election. (Id. at ¶ 13, Doc. 41-18 at 4.) Similarly, Matthew Dam-schroder, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and State Elections Director, and former director of the Franklin County Board, states that: In order to facilitate additional evening and weekend in person absentee voting, boards of elections must ensure adequate staffing during those hours. This can be burdensome and costly for boards that are already operating under tight budgetary restrictions. In addition, these staff cannot complete other necessary tasks while tending to in person absentee voters. (Damschroder Dec. ¶ 34, Doc. 41-9 at 2, 7.) According to Koehler, the elimination of Golden Week “will save [Boards] 20% of the cost of extra temporary workers, since they will be working four weeks instead of five.” (Young Dec. Ex. 4; Doc. 54-3 at 15.) As exhibits to its brief, Amicus Curiae the Ohio General Assembly has submitted several declarations, including those of Alex Triantafilou, Timothy Ward, and Mark Munroe. According to Triantafilou, a member of the Hamilton County Board, the reinstatement of Golden Week for the 2014 election would likely “cost the Board an estimated $8,000 to $12,000 in staffing costs alone.” (Triantafilou Dec. ¶¶ 1, 10, Doc. 68-4 at 1, 3.) Ward, Director of the Madison County Board, states that if Golden Week is reinstated, it will cost the Board-at least $933.20, which the Board has not budgeted. (Ward Dec. ¶¶ 1, 12, Doc. 68-2 at 1, 5.) Ward also states that increased hours during the 2012 election resulted in overtime costs of $5,027.36. (Id. at ¶ 15, Doc. 68-2 at 6.) Munroe, Chairman of the Mahoning County Board, estimates that reinstating Golden Week during the 2014 election season would cost approximately $3,490.88. (Munroe Dec. ¶¶ 1, 3, Doc. 68-5 at 1.) The Ohio Revised Code requires election officials to verify absentee ballots before they are counted. For instance, an absentee ballot may not be counted if the signature on the ballot’s identification envelope does not match the signature appearing on a voter’s registration card. Ohio Rev.Code §§ 3509.06(D)(1), 3509.07(B), 3509.09(C)(1). Further, Husted’s Directive 2012-36 provided procedures used during the 2012 election for ensuring that EIP votes cast during Golden Week would be properly counted. Pursuant to this directive, if “the [registration] application is complete and valid, the Board must permit such voters to cast an absent voter’s ballot following the board’s normal in person absentee voting procedures” and “the Board must segregate the ballots from all others cast by voters who were previously qualified electors of the county prior to applying for an absent voter’s ballot.” (Doc. 53-10 at 1.) Then, the Board is required to send a voter acknowledgement card to the voter’s address by non-forwardable mail on the same day that the voter had registered and voted. (Id. at 2.) If the card is not returned to the Board as undeliverable, the registration is presumably deemed valid. (See id. at 2.) C. Voting Opportunities During the 2014 General Election and Voting by Mail On Election Day 2014, the polls will be open for voting between 6:30 a.m. and 7:30 p.m. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 25, Doc. 62 at 4.) Further, Ohio voters wishing to vote absentee during the election may do so by (1) requesting an absentee ballot and returning it by mail or in person during the 28 days before Election Day, or by returning the ballot in person on Election Day, or (2) voting in-person during the 28 day period on the days and during the hours established by Directive 2014-17. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 26, Doc. 62 at 4.) Voters were permitted to request absentee ballots for the coming election beginning on January 1, 2014. (Parties’ Joint Statement of Undisputed Facts ¶ 26, Doc. 62 at 4.) The Ohio Revised Code does not distinguish between the application process for obtaining an absentee ballot in person or by mail. Pursuant to § 3509.03, the application must include the following information: (A) The elector’s name; (B) The elector’s signature; (C) The address at which the elector is registered to vote; (D) The elector’s date of birth; (E) One of the following: (1) The elector’s driver’s license number; (2) The last four digits of the elector’s social security number; (3) A copy of the elector’s current and valid photo identification, a copy of a military identification, or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document, other than a notice of voter registration mailed by a board of elections under section 3503.19 of the Revised Code, that shows the name and address of the elector. (F) A statement identifying the election for which absent voter’s ballots are requested; (G) A statement that the person requesting the ballots is a qualified elector; (H) If the request is for primary election ballots, the elector’s party affiliation; (I) If the elector desires ballots to be mailed to the elector, the address to which those ballots shall be mailed. Ohio Rev.Code. § 3509.03. If the director of elections determines that the application contains all required information, the director is required either to deliver the absentee ballot to the voter or to mail the absentee ballot, as applicable. Id. § 3509.04(B). If the director determines that the application is missing required information, the director shall “promptly” notify the voter of what additional information is required. Id. § 3509.04(A). The Boards are prohibited from providing postage for the return of an absentee ballot application or for the return of an absentee ballot itself. Ohio Rev.Code §§ 3509.03 (“A board of elections that mails an absent voter’s ballot application to an elector under this section shall not prepay the return postage for that application.”); 3509.04 (“A board of elections that mails or otherwise delivers absent voter’s ballots to an elector under this section shall not prepay the return postage for those ballots.”). D. Evidence of the Potential Impact of SB 238 and Directive 2014-17 1. Plaintiffs’ Testimonial Evidence The Plaintiffs have submitted various declarations in support of their motion for a preliminary injunction, including those of Ray Wood, Carrie Davis, Dale Snyder, Plaintiff Darryl Fairchild, Jamie Simpson, Robert E. Jones, Delores Freeman, David Morgan, Gerald Cooper, Joseph Copeland, Shawn Braxton, Jack Freeh, Josh Spring, Erik Crew, Georgine Getty, Glorianne Leek, and Mark Freeman. Ray Wood, who is African American, is president of the NAACP’s Toledo Chapter and was involved in “get-out-the-vote efforts” in 2008, 2010, and 2012. (Wood Dec. ¶¶ 2, 8, 12-13, 15, Doc. 18-10 at 1-2.) According to Wood, while transportation to the polls was provided on Saturdays in the get-out-the-vote efforts he was involved with in Toledo, Sundays were a bigger focus: Traditionally, in the Toledo African-American community, Sunday has always been the day of the week when everyone gets together. Many older and elderly African Americans simply do not leave the house all week except on Sundays. Many generations of African Americans get together for church, and then gather together for the Sunday meal. (Id. at ¶ 24, Doc. 18-10 at 3.) Wood states that “Sunday was a focal point also because many churches already provide transportation to take people to church, and carpools are also arranged so that everyone is together.” Wood reported that he personally observed long lines of African Americans waiting to vote on Sundays during the 2008 early-voting period. (Id. at ¶¶ 25-26, Doc. 18-10 at 4.) According to Wood, voting by mail is “not acceptable” to many African Americans he has spoken with because they do not believe their votes will be counted— rather, “[w]hen they go to a machine, they can actually feel like their vote is counted.” (Wood Dec. ¶ 30, Doc. 18-10 at 4.) In 2008, when multiple Sundays were available for voting in Lucas County, it was much easier to coordinate the Souls to the Polls efforts among the 80 to 90 churches involved; in 2012, with only one Sunday of .voting, Wood felt “a lot more pressure.” (Id. at ¶ 32, Doc. 18-10 at 5.) Wood also states that evening voting hours are important, as many people who work hourly wage jobs simply cannot vote during lunch breaks or before work in the morning. (Id. at ¶ 33, Doc. 18-10 at 5.) Regarding Golden Week, Wood states that the NAACP provided transportation to the polls so that people could register and vote on the same day, and that efforts were made in lower income areas to raise awareness of the possibility. (Wood Dec. ¶ 34-35, Doc. 18-10 at 5.) Further, Wood states that people in the African-American community in Toledo move frequently, especially since the 2008 recession. (Id. at ¶ 36, Doc. 18-10 at 5-6.) Carrie Davis is the Executive Director of Plaintiff, the League of Women Voters of Ohio, which directs voter education efforts toward individuals under 25, women, and racial and ethnic minorities, many of whom also tend to be lower-income and working-class. (Davis Dee. June 24, 2014 ¶¶ 2, 11, Doc. 18-11 at 1, 3.) According to Davis, women will be negatively impacted by reductions in non-traditional voting times, as they are likely to have family caretaking responsibilities. (Id. at ¶ 42, Doc. 18-11 at 11.) Dale Snyder has been the Senior Pastor at Plaintiff Bethel African Methodist Episcopal Church (“Bethel AME”) in Columbus since 2007. (Snyder Dec. ¶ 4, Doc. 18-12 at 1.) The church’s congregation is predominantly African American and it is located in a predominantly African-American neighborhood with very high rates of poverty. (Id. at ¶¶ 10-11, Doe. 18-12 at 2-3.) The church believes strongly in encouraging African Americans in its community to vote and has engaged in get-out-the-vote efforts, including registering voters during Golden Week and Souls to the Polls. (See id. at ¶¶ 14, 17, 18, Doc. 18-12 at 2.) Plaintiff Darryl Fairchild is an ordained Elder in the United Methodist Church and a community organizer who has been involved with get-out-the-vote efforts and work with lower-income populations and persons with disabilities in Dayton, which is located in Montgomery County. (Fair-child Dec. ¶¶ 2, 4-10, Doc. 18-13 at 1.) He states that multiple Sundays are important to people from lower-income backgrounds because they “often have irregular working hours” and “have less stable and more unpredictable lives.” (Id. at ¶ 22, Doc. 18-13 at 4.) He also states that “multiple Sundays are also important for people with disabilities” because “[t]here are some days when a person with a disability wakes up and doesn’t have the energy to move, or there might be something else wrong physically,” so “they need multiple Sundays in case something goes wrong on that day.” (Id. at ¶ 23, Doc. 18-13 at 5.) Jamie Simpson is a member of Plaintiff Omega Baptist Church in Dayton, often speaks to students in predominantly African-American high schools about the importance of voting, and has worked on the church’s Souls to the Polls efforts. (Simpson Dec. ¶¶ 6-7, 10, Doc. 18-14 at 1-2.) She states that she “[doesn’t] know how we will continue to coordinate transportation without Sunday voting.” (Id. at ¶ 20, Doc. 18-14 at 3.) As for voting by mail, she states that “many people in my community are scared to vote by mail and are very apprehensive about it,” “can be confused by the [unfamiliar] forms,” and “do not believe that their vote will be counted if they vote by mail.” She states that she “encountered many people who were apprehensive about voting by mail who[m] I drove to the polls.” (Id. at ¶ 26, Doc. 18-14 at 4.) Robert E. Jones served as a pastor at Plaintiff College Hill Community Church Presbyterian, U.S.A. (“College Hill”) until his retirement in March 2014. (Jones Dec. ¶¶ 6-7, Doc. 18-15 at 2.) College Hill “advocates for issues that relate to social and economic justice” and “has taken part in efforts to encourage early voting and helped transport voters to the polling place during early voting periods.” (Id. at ¶ 13, Doc. 18-15 at 3.) He states that, “[i]f Sunday voting is eliminated, we will lose voters,” and that it was easier “to take people to the polls on Sunday because many churches already have drivers [who] take people to the Sunday service.” (Id. at ¶ 17,19, Doc. 18-15 at 4.) Delores Freeman is the President of the Youngstown Chapter of Plaintiff the A. Philip Randolph Institute (“APRI”) and treasurer of the Greater Youngstown Community Mobilization Coalition, a group “consist[ing] of about 16 organizations committed to increasing political awareness and assisting individuals in exercising their right to vote.” (Delores Freeman Dec. ¶¶ 8-9, Doc. 18-16 at 1-2.) The APRI Youngstown Chapter has been involved in get-out-the-vote efforts for about five or six years. (Id. at ¶ 10, Doc. 18-16 at 2.) During the early-voting period, these efforts involved driving voters to the polls, and during the 2012 election and 2014 primary election, most of the people who requested rides were African American. (Id. at ¶¶ 19, 21, Doc. 18-16 at 3.) During the 2004 Election, Freeman witnessed voters leave polling places without having voted due to long lines. (Id. at ¶¶ 27-30, Doc. 18-16 at 4.) David Morgan has been a member of the Trumbull County Chapter of the APRI for over 40 years and is a past President of the APRI in Ohio. (Morgan Dec. ¶¶ 6-8, Doc. 18-17 at 1.) According to Morgan, the APRI Trumbull County chapter has a long history of involvement with get-out-the-vote efforts, and individuals who have registered to vote and been provided transportation to the polls have been predominately African American. (Id. at ¶¶ 9, 17, Doc. 18-17 at 1, 3.) Gerald A. Cooper is the pastor at Dayton’s Wayman Chapel African Methodist Episcopal Church, which is predominantly African American. (Cooper Dec. ¶¶ 3-4, Doc. 18-19 at 1.) The church participates in get-out-the-vote efforts and he encourages his congregation to vote and to vote early, and emphasizes the importance of Golden Week. (Id. at ¶¶ 5-7, Doc. 18-19 at 1-2.) He states that “[o]ne Sunday for Souls to the Polls is not enough for people in my community” due to inflexible work schedules; he also predicts that a single Souls to the Polls day “will also pose a logistical challenge” due to “many variables including the number of people to take, how long the lines are and when to leave the polls to get back in time for another group.” (Id. at ¶¶ 10-11, Doc. 18-19 at 3.) Joseph Copeland has served as the Associate Minister of The Greater New Hope Missionary Baptist Church in Cincinnati for 20 years and helped coordinate Souls to the Polls efforts in the Cincinnati area in 2011 and 2012. (Copeland Dec. ¶¶ 3-5, Doc. 18-20 at 1.) In 2012, the efforts involved 12 to 15 churches, 80% of which were African'American. (Id. at ¶5, Doc. 18-20 at 1.) Shawn Braxton is the Pastor at New Life Cathedral in East Cleveland and has worked with African-American churches on get-out-the-vote efforts for approximately four years. (Braxton Dec. ¶¶ 4-5, Doc. 18-21 at 1.) These efforts included Souls to the Polls and helping voters vote during evening voting hours. (Id. at ¶ 6, Doc. 18-21 at 1.) Jack Freeh has been the Director of the Athens County Department of Job & Family Services for over 30 years. (Freeh Dec. ¶ 1, Doc. 18-22 at 1.) His department serves “the poor and working-class families and individuals in Athens County,” and is required to provide voter registration opportunities for its clients. (Id. at ¶¶ 4, 9, Doc. 18-22 at 1-2.) According to Freeh, his department’s clients overwhelmingly register to vote when given the opportunity to do so in person, but almost never do so when given the opportunity over the telephone or by mail as “day-to-day life is chaotic and focused on survival. Taking the time to fill out a voter registration form and then finding transportation to get to a post office is simply not going to happen for many of our clients.” (Id. at ¶¶ 11-13, Doc. 18-22 at 2-3.) Further, many of Freeh’s clients are distrustful of government and the mail, and are fearful that filling out a form or failing to fill out a form and send it in the mail could lead to a denial of benefits. (See id. at ¶¶ 14-16, Doc. 18-22 at 3.) Freeh declares that, “[a]l-though we are in a sparsely populated, rural county, the poor people in our county need these evening[] and Sunday voting opportunities just as much as the poor in more populated counties need them.” (Id. at ¶ 32, Doc. 18-22 at 6.) Josh Spring is the Executive Director of the Greater Cincinnati Coalition for the Homeless (“GCCH”). (Spring Dec. ¶ 6, Doc. 18-23 at 2.) The population served by GCCH in Cincinnati is disproportionately African American, and one study suggested that 66% of Cincinnati homeless are African American, although, according to Spring, the study likely underestimates that percentage. (Id. at ¶ 11, Doc. 18-23 at 3-4.) Erik Crew is employed by the Ohio Justice & Policy Center and has been involved in helping people register and vote during Golden Week. (Crew Dec. ¶¶ 4, 6, Doc. 18-24 at 1-2.) According to Crew, the people experiencing homelessness taken to register and vote during the 2008 Golden Week were predominantly African American. (See id. at ¶ 20; Doc. 18-24 at 4.) Georgine Getty is the former Executive Director of the GCCH. (Getty Dec. ¶ 3, Doc. 18-25 at 1.) Glorianne Leek was a precinct committee member working at the Wick Park, polling place in Youngstown during the 2004 election. (Leek Dec. ¶ 5, Doc. 18-26 at 1.) She states that approximately 51% of the voters at the polling place were African American, and she personally observed individuals leave the voting line without voting because of the length of the wait. (Id. at ¶¶ 5, 7, 9, Doc. 18-26 at 1-2.) Mark Freeman is the former superintendent of the Shaker Heights City School District in the Cleveland Area. (Mark Freeman Dec. ¶ 1, Doc. 18-27 at 1.) He personally witnessed the long voting lines at facilities owned by the school district during the 2004 election, and estimates that between a quarter to a third of those standing in the long lines were African American. (See Mark Freeman Dec. ¶¶ 2-9, Doc. 18-27 at 1.) The remaining relevant testimony of the declarants regarding Golden Week, Souls to the Polls, weekend voting hours, evening voting hours, voting by mail, the difficulties generally encountered by lower-income voters, and the effects of EIP voting in Ohio is summarized below: Golden Week: • It is Davis’ understanding that same-day registration is effective and boosts voter participation among lower-income voters; same-day registration is also important to people who frequently move. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶¶ 24, 26, Doc. 18-11 at 6.) • Golden Week is important to lower income people who are more transient; lower income people also tend to have lower education and are unaware of requirements for updating registration, or registration deadlines. (Fairchild Dec. ¶ 12, Doc. 18-13 at 3.) • According to Snyder, Golden Week is important to people in Be-thel AME’s neighborhood because they are typically very transient and voter registrations need to be updated whenever a voter moves. (See Snyder Dec. ¶ 17, Doc. 18-12 at 2.) • In each of 2010 and 2011, Fairchild helped about 25 to 40 first-time student voters to register and vote on the same day during Golden Week. (Fairchild Dec. ¶¶ 16-17, Doc. 18-13 at 3.) • Registration and voting on the same day is important because it is a one step process for people who “spend their days looking for housing, jobs, social services, and meeting with caseworkers.” (Spring Dec. ¶ 21, Doc. 18-23 at 6.) • According to Crew, “[b]eing able to register and vote at the same time was especially helpful for people experiencing homelessness because of their more transient lifestyle, where their address might change frequently or they may have no address at all. Such individuals need to update their registration frequently.” (Crew Dec. ¶ 14, Doc. 18-24 at 3; see also Getty Dec. ¶ 15, Doc. 18-25 at 3.) Souls to the Polls/Weekend Voting: • Many people can vote in person only during the weekends. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 34, Doc. 18-11 at 9.) • The League of Women Voters of Ohio believes that the limited weekend voting schedule established by Directive 2014-17 for the 2014 general election will result in very long lines during weekend voting. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 35, Doc. 18-11 at 9.) • “ ‘Souls to the Polls’ is important to the African Americans in [Snyder’s] congregation and community. It is a way for family members across 2 and 3 generations to vote together. As we take bus rides to the polls, we share the stories of the sacrifices that people have made to give us the right to vote. We share with the younger generation of voters what Jim Crow was like. We sing freedom songs on the way to the polls. It is a sense of pride and honor that most of our young people don’t get to experience living here in America. Many of our young people are discouraged and won’t participate in the electoral process unless older generations encourage them.” (Snyder Dec. ¶ 24, Doc. 18-12 at 5; see also Jones Dec. ¶ 18, Doc. 18-15 at 4 (“Sunday voting has become a communal event”).) • “ ‘Souls to the Polls’ [has been] critical to helping African Americans in [Snyder’s] congregation and community to vote. Many of them cannot vote during regular business hours because they cannot get off of work”; without Souls to the Polls, many people around Bethel AME and poor neighborhoods would not be able to exercise their right to vote because of lack of transportation, babysitting, and lack of information. (Snyder Dec. ¶¶ 20, 22, Doc. 18-12 at 4.) • Snyder saw long lines of predominantly African American voters on the only Sunday of early voting before the 2012 election. (See Snyder Dec. ¶ 21, Doc. 18-12 at 4; see also Simpson Dec. ¶ 17, Doc. 18-14 at 3 (long lines in Montgomery County); Copeland Dec. ¶ 8, Doc. 18-20 at 2 (long lines in Hamilton County).) • Fairchild observed very long voting lines on the final Sunday before the 2008 election when a high number of African Americans voted; in 2010, he was involved with efforts that provided transportation to the polls on Sundays during the early-voting period for hundreds of voters. (Fairchild Dec. ¶¶ 19-20, Doc. 18-13 at 4.) • Because there can be only one location for EIP voting per county and because Sunday hours are usually limited, lines for Sunday voting can be long. (Morgan Dec. ¶21, Doc. 18-17 at 3; see also Cooper Dec. ¶¶ 10-11, Doc. 18-19 at 3 (one Sunday of early voting is not enough).) Evening Voting Hours: • Lack of evening voting hours can impact the ability of working-class individuals to vote. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 37, Doc. 18-11 at 10; Fairchild Dec. ¶ 26, Doc. 18-13 at 5.) • Evening voting hours have helped members of Snyder’s congregation vote who work during the day and who cannot use vacation or sick time to vote. (See Snyder Dec. ¶ 27, Doc. 18-12 at 5; see also Freeman Dec. ¶ 24, Doc. 18-16 at 3.) • In Fairchild’s experience, during the early-voting period, workers at the Montgomery County Board would be processing absentee ballots after hours even when no in-person voting was allowed for that evening. (Fairchild Dec. ¶ 28, Doc. 18-13 at 6.) Voting By Mail: • Some voters do not trust voting by mail. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 30, Doc. 18-11 at 8; Delores Freeman Dec. ¶ 26, Doc. 18-16 at 4; Copeland Dec. ¶ 14, Doc. 18-20 at 2; Spring Dec. ¶ 24, Doc. 18-23 at 6-7 (voters experiencing homelessness).) • “Some [voters] take pride in going to the booth and pulling the lever” and “for some, as in the African-American community, [voting] is a cultural tradition because it is a right that was fought hard for and they want to experience it in person.” (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 30, Doc. 18-11 at 8; see also Morgan Dec. ¶25, Doc. 18-17 at 4.) • According to Davis, Senate Bill 205 prohibits prepaid postage for ballots and requires all fields on the ballot envelope to be completed. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 31, Doc. 18-11 at 8.) • According to Fairchild, “[m]any of the people from lower-income backgrounds that I’ve worked with do not trust voting by mail. Even organizers do not encourage it because it is a multi-step process where you must find postage, mail-in an absentee ballot request, then find postage again, and mail in the absentee ballot. Lower-income people with less educational attainment are often living chaotic lives and are often unable to understand this process.” (Fairchild Dec. ¶ 29, Doc. 18-13 at 6.) • According to Braxton, “ Vote-by-Mail’ is not a sufficient alternative to [EIP] voting. First, most of the people I interact with regularly do not even pay their bills by mail anymore, so many people overlook traditional mail as a means to cast their vote since it is not a traditional medium for voting. And, second, minority communities I have worked with distrust the vote-by-mail system and want to see their ballots actually processed.” (Brax-ton Dec. ¶ 15, Doc. 18-21 at 2-3.) Difficulties Encountered by Lower Income Voters: • According to Davis, “many working-class people in Ohio rely on public transportation,” and use of public transportation to get to polling places can entail a large time commitment; “this time commitment is usually compounded with other concerns working-class people face and manage daily, including family obligations, work and health care.” (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 27, Doc. 18-11 at 7; see also Braxton Dec. ¶ 12, Doc. 18-21 at 2.) • Long voting lines can present challenges to voters with health problems, those relying on others for transportation, and those with family obligations. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 36, Doc. 18-11 at 9-10.) • Cuts in early-voting opportunities negatively impact those with lower education because they may not learn of the changes. (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 40, Doc. 18-11 at 10-11.) Effects of EIP Voting in Ohio: • “[D]ue to early voting, counties do not need as many precincts on Election Day and are consolidating precincts”; “these changes can benefit [Boards] and save them money and resources.” (Davis Dec. June 24, 2014 ¶ 33, Doc. 18-11 at 9; see also Fairchild Dec. ¶ 31, Doc. 18-13 at 6-7.) 2. Expert Opinions and Other Statistical Evidence Before discussing the report of Plaintiffs’ statistical expert, Dr. Daniel A. Smith, the Court notes that some significant limitations exist regarding the available ejection data. Ohio’s 88 county Boards use five different election management software systems and adopt their own policies for using these systems to track election data. (Damschroder Dec. ¶ 18, Doc. 41-9 at 4.) Thus, statistics of when absentee votes are cast or whether a voter cast an EIP vote or actually voted by mail, may possibly not be consistently tabulated from county to county making county to county comparisons or statewide totaling difficult. Further, statistics such as when votes are actually counted during the early-voting period may not be accurate at all. As an example, when an absentee ballot requested in person is taken home but returned by mail, some counties may count that as an EIP vote, while others may count it as an absentee vote by mail. (Id.) Conversely, an absentee vote requested by mail and returned in person may be counted differently by different counties. (Id.) As another example, counties vary on whether they count an EIP vote as recorded on the date it is cast versus the date on which the registration is verified. (Id.) Furthermore, statistics from Franklin County suggest that voters do not consistently cast ballots during the same portion of the EIP voting period from election to election. For instance, “of the 8,534 in person absentee voters during ‘golden week’ in 2008, only 259 (or 3.35%) voted in person during ‘golden week’ in 2012.” (Damschroder Dec. ¶ 39, Doc. 41-9 at 7.) Further, “only 61 electors in Franklin County [ ] voted in person absentee during ‘golden week’ in each of the last three federal general elections (2008, 2010, and 2012).” (Id.) Of the 15,432 Franklin County EIP voters during the last five days prior to the 2008 election, only 2,326 voted during the last five days before the 2012 election. (Id.) a. Plaintiffs’ Expert, Dr. Daniel A. Smith Plaintiffs’ primary expert, Dr. Daniel A. Smith, Professor of Political Science and University of Florida Research Professor, is a nationally renowned expert on electoral processes and the effect of political institutions on political behavior. He has extensive research, consulting, and academic experience in his field and has been widely cited, including by the U.S. Supreme Court. (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 2.) He submitted an expert report titled “Analysis of Effects of Senate Bill 238 and Directive 2014-06 On Early In-Person (EIP) Absentee Voting By Blacks and Whites in Ohio” (Doc. 18-1) and an expert rebuttal declaration (Doc. 53-11), and. the record contains his deposition taken on August 1, 2014 (Doc. 64-3). Plaintiffs’ counsel asked Smith “to assess whether reductions in EIP absentee voting resulting from the passage of [SB 238] in 2014 and Secretary of State Jon Husted’s Directive 2014-06 are likely to have differential effects on black and white voters in Ohio.” Because the Smith Report “was largely written prior to June 11, 2014, when the court ordered Secretary Husted to set uniform hours including the last two days of the early voting period,” its “analysis therefore includes the last two days of the early voting period.” (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 1, n. 1.) Drawing on public data sources and using standard statistical methods, Smith concludes that: there is strong empirical evidence in Ohio that a greater proportion of blacks not only cast EIP absentee ballots than whites but do so on early voting days that have been eliminated by SB 238 and Directive 2014-06. As such, blacks in Ohio will likely be disproportionately and negatively affected in 2014 by the reduction in EIP absentee voting days caused by SB 238 and Directive 2014-06. (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 4.) Smith compares usage of EIP voting by African-American Ohioans to white Ohioans in the 2010 midterm and 2012 presidential elections. For his analysis of the 2012 election, Smith includes data from 84 of Ohio’s 88 counties; for the 2010 election, he includes data from the five most populous counties: Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit. (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 7, 10, App’x A1.) He had insufficient time to include more complete data because the “considerable heterogeneity across the state’s 88 [Boards] with respect to their data collection, data formatting, and public access, mak[e] the collection and subsequent analysis of EIP absentee voting records fairly arduous.” (Id. at App’x Al.) Defendants’ expert argues that these five counties “are so unrepresentative of the state in terms of several factors such as racial composition, partisanship, urban density, [that he does] ... not believe that inferences from the 2010 data about the effects of SB 238 and Directive 2014-06 statewide are valid.” (McCarty Report, Doc. 41-4 at 3, n. 1.) Nonetheless, Smith argues, and the Court agrees, that the findings from these five counties, which account for over one-third of the state’s population and nearly 73% of Ohio’s African-American population, are highly probative. (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 10; Smith Rebuttal, Doc. 53-11 at 23.) Because Ohio does not record voters’ races, Smith “use[d] U.S. Census data to determine the geographic breakdown of the Ohio voting age population [“YAP’], by race, at the census block level-—the smallest geographic unit for which the Census Bureau reports data.” (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 12.) Smith “[uses] a combination of aggregate-level and individual-level data, ... rely[ing] on three standard ecological inference techniques to draw inferences about the EIP absentee voting rates of blacks and whites in Ohio.” (Smith Rebuttal, Doc. 53-11 at 2.) He asserts that “[e]ach of these methods is sound and appropriate,” and his “findings across these different methods are consistent, reinforcing their validity and reliability.” (Id.) Bivariate correlation. Smith first examines the bivariate correlation between the percentage of the African-American VAP in a particular census block to the percentage of EIP votes cast in that block. (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 13.) Smith found that, the greater the percentage of the African-American VAP, the greater the percentage of EIP votes that were cast. (Id. at 13-15, Fig. 1 (2012 election), 22-23, Fig. 7 (2010 election).) The same is true of votes cast on the eliminated days. (Id. at 15-16, Fig. 2, 23-24, Fig. 8.) Homogeneous area analysis. In the 2012 election, looking at only racially homogeneous census blocks, that is, census blocks comprised either entirely of African Americans or entirely of whites, Smith found that “the rate of EIP absentee ballots cast in 100% black census blocks was more than twice the comparable rate in 100% white census blocks.” (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 17-18, Fig. 3.) “[I]n homogenous black census blocks, roughly one in five voters ... cast an EIP absentee ballot,” while “fewer than one in 10 votes cast by voters living in 100% white census blocks ... was an EIP absentee ballot.” (Id.) Finally, “in homogenous black census blocks, the rate [of EIP absentee ballots] was two to four times the rate in homogenous white census blocks during the first week of early voting.” (Id.) As for the 2010 election, Smith found that, in racially homogeneous census blocks, the EIP absentee voting rate was higher in black census blocks than in white census blocks on nearly every day of EIP absentee voting, and “blacks ... were more likely than comparable whites to utilize EIP absentee voting.” (Smith Report, Doc. 18-1 at 24-25, Fig. 9.) “Specifically, the EIP absent