Full opinion text
CARNES, Circuit Judge: This appeal involves an Equal Protection Clause challenge to three substantially identical affirmative action programs administered by Dade County, Florida. Those programs provide for the use of race-, ethnicity-, and gender-conscious measures in awarding County construction projects. Specifically, the programs establish preferences for construction enterprises owned and controlled by blacks, Hispanics, or women. The district court declared all three programs unconstitutional and permanently enjoined their operation. See Engineering Contractors Ass’n v. Metropolitan Dade County, 943 F.Supp. 1546 (S.D.Fla.1996). We affirm. I. BACKGROUND FACTS AND PROCEDURAL HISTORY The following summary of undisputed facts, as well as the procedural history of this case, is drawn primarily from the district court’s thorough opinion, see 943 F.Supp. at 1551-53. A. UNDISPUTED FACTS Three affirmative action programs enacted by the Dade County Board of Commissioners are at issue in this appeal: (1) the Black Business Enterprise (“BBE”) program, enacted in 1982 and most recently amended in 1994; (2) the Hispanic Business Enterprise (“HBE”) program, enacted in 1994; and (3) the Women Business Enterprise (“WBE”) program, enacted in 1994. For the sake of convenience, we adhere to the district court’s convention of referring to the programs collectively as the “MWBE” (Minority & Women Business Enterprise) programs. To qualify to participate in one of the MWBE programs, a business must be owned and controlled by one or more black, Hispanic, or female individuals, and it must have an actual place of business in Dade County. MWBE joint ventures must have at least, one member that is certified under one of the three MWBE programs. Additionally, each MWBE participant must demonstrate that it does not exceed the size limits for “small business concerns” as defined by the Small Business Administration of the United States Department of Commerce. However, an MWBE participant that exceeds the size limit may retain its certification if it demonstrates that “it continues to experience the kinds of racial [or gender] discrimination addressed by [the programs].” Metropolitan Dade County Code § 2-8.2(3)(e). The MWBE programs apply to certain classes of County contracts for which “participation goals” have been set. This ease concerns only construction contracts, which means that only the following three Standard Industry Classification (“SIC”) classes of County contracts are involved: (1) SIC 15: General Building Construction; (2) SIC 16: Heavy Construction other than Building Construction; (3) SIC 17: Specialty Trade Construction (including electrical, plumbing, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning). For the foregoing classes of contracts, the County has set participation goals of 15% for BBEs, 19% for HBEs, and 11% for WBEs. The participation goals apply to all construction contracts in excess of $25,000 that are funded in whole or in part by the County. The County is required to make every reasonable effort to achieve the participation goals, and may use any of the following five “contract measures” to do so: (1) Set Asides — Under this measure a contract is set aside for bidding solely among MWBEs. In general, the County may use the set-aside measure if there are at least three MWBE businesses available to perform the contract. However, the County also may waive competitive bidding if there are at least two MWBEs available, if neither of those MWBEs has been awarded a County contract for like goods or services in the last three years, and a price analysis is done to ensure the price is competitive. (2) Subcontractor Goals — This measure requires a prime contractor to subcontract a certain percentage of work to MWBEs. The percentage is determined on a case-by-ease basis. A waiver is available if the prime contractor can demonstrate that MWBEs are not available to do the work at a competitive price. However, the inability of an MWBE to obtain bonding is not considered grounds for a waiver. (3) Project Goals — With this measure, the County creates a pool of MWBE subcontractors from which it selects firms for specified types of work under County contracts. (4) Bid Preferences — This measure artificially “reduces” an MWBE bid price by as much as ten percent for purposes of determining the lowest bid. The actual price the County pays for the work is unaffected by this “reduction.” (5)Selection Factors — This measure is similar to a bid preference, but operates on factors other than price. For instance, when bid evaluation procedures assign weights to various factors, MWBE performance on those factors may be boosted by up to 10%. Once a contract is identified as being covered by a participation goal, it is submitted to a review committee for determination of whether a contract measure should be applied. The County Commission makes the final determination on that issue, and its decision is appealable to the County Manager. The County Manager’s decision is final, unless the County Commission exercises its discretion to review and override it. Annually, the MWBE programs are reviewed for their efficacy. Every five years, when the “Survey of Minority-Owned Business Enterprises” is published by the Census Bureau, the County Commission must decide whether to continue the programs. B. PROCEDURAL HISTORY The Dade County BBE program has been challenged before. In South Florida Chapter of Associated General Contractors v. Metropolitan Dade County, 723 F.2d 846 (11th Cir.1984), this Court upheld the program in its entirety. We did so applying the standard enunciated by Chief Justice Burger in the principal opinion in Fullilove v. Klutz-nick, 448 U.S. 448, 100 S.Ct. 2758, 65 L.Ed.2d 902 (1980), which was neither strict scrutiny nor any other traditional standard of equal protection review. Five years after we upheld Dade County’s BBE program, the Supreme Court pulled the props out from under our decision by abandoning the Fullilove standard insofar as state and local race-conscious remedial programs are concerned. Such programs must satisfy the exacting strict scrutiny standard, the Court held in City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson Co., 488 U.S. 469, 493-95, 109 S.Ct. 706, 721-22, 102 L.Ed.2d 854 (1989) (four-member plurality opinion); accord id. at 520, 109 S.Ct. at 735-36 (Scalia, J., concurring) (agreeing that “strict scrutiny must be applied to all governmental classifications by race”). The Croson decision prompted several non-minority plaintiffs to bring a second constitutional challenge to Dade County’s BBE program. That case was tried in federal district court in July 1992, but before the court rendered a final judgment the parties reached a settlement and stipulated to a dismissal with prejudice. That abortive litigation is not without effect on the present case, however, because by stipulation, the evidence from that settled case has been made a part of the record in this case. This case was filed in September 1994 by six trade associations whose members regularly perform work, either as prime contractors or subcontractors, on County projects. The complaint named only the County and certain related parties as defendants. However, three entities have intervened as party defendants: (1) the Black Business Association, Inc.; (2) the Allied Minority Contractors Association, Inc.; and (3) the Miami Dade Branch of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People. The plaintiffs challenge the County’s MWBE programs only as they apply to the construction industry, i.e., only with respect to SIC 15,16, and 17. The district court held a four-day bench trial in December 1995 and heard closing arguments on April 18,1996. On September 17,1996, the district court entered a comprehensive opinion containing findings of fact and conclusions of law. Engineering Contractors Ass’n v. Metropolitan Dade County, 943 F.Supp. 1546 (S.D.Fla.1996). Applying strict scrutiny, the district court found that the County lacked the requisite “strong basis in evidence” to support the race- and ethnicity-conscious measures contained in the BBE and the HBE programs. Applying intermediate scrutiny to the WBE program, the district court found that the County had presented insufficient probative evidence to support its stated rationale for implementing a gender preference. Therefore, the district court concluded that the County had failed to demonstrate a “compelling” interest in remedying race or ethnicity discrimination in the Dade County construction market (for the BBE and HBE programs), and that it likewise had failed to demonstrate an “important” interest in remedying gender discrimination through its WBE program. In a separate analysis, the district court assumed the existence of a sufficient evidentiary basis to support the existence of the MWBE programs in order to examine whether the programs were sufficiently related to the interests they purported to serve. The court held that the BBE and HBE programs were not narrowly tailored to serve a compelling governmental interest in remedying past or present discrimination on the basis of race or ethnicity, even if sufficient evidence to support the existence of those programs had been demonstrated. Likewise, the district court held that the WBE program was not substantially related to an important governmental interest in remedying past or present discrimination, even if the evidence had been sufficient to support the existence of that program. The district court followed its opinion with a final judgment that enjoined the County from continuing to operate its MWBE programs for construction work. This appeal followed. II. ISSUES Despite the evidentiary complexity of this case, this appeal presents only four major issues. The standards of review applicable to those issues are set out in Part III of this opinion, but before we get there we will briefly outline in this Part what those issues are and describe our organizational approach for considering them. The first issue is whether the plaintiffs have standing. For the reasons discussed in Part IV, we conclude that they do, which necessitates that we address the remaining issues, i.e., the merits issues. We begin addressing the merits with a discussion in Part V of the legal standards for scrutinizing affirmative action programs of the type involved in this case. That leads into Part VI of this opinion, which involves the second and third major issues presented in this appeal. The second major issue is whether the district court erred in finding that the County 'lacked a “strong basis in evidence” to justify the existence of the BBE and HBE programs. Similarly, the third major issue is whether the district court erred in finding that the County lacked a sufficient probative basis in evidence to justify the existence of the WBE program. To the extent practicable, we discuss concurrently the evidence related to those two issues, because much of the statistical evidence in this case is derived from studies related to more than one MWBE program. As we review that evidence, we will separately consider each MWBE program in light of the standard of review applicable to it. Finally, the fourth major issue, which we discuss in Part VII, is whether the MWBE programs are adequately tailored to the interests they are purported to serve. Because we conclude that the district court did not clearly err in finding that the MWBE programs lack a constitutionally sufficient evidentiary foundation, our analysis of this issue is limited to the most obvious problems associated with the County’s tailoring of the MWBE programs. As will be seen, there are several. Our conclusion is contained in Part VIII. III. STANDARDS OF REVIEW The legal standards by which a race-, ethnicity-, or gender-conscious affirmative action program is to be evaluated are discussed in Part V of this opinion. Applying those standards in the first instance is within the province of the district court, not this Court. Our province is to review the decisions and judgment of the district court, but our authority to do so is confined by the standards of review. We examine them below, separately discussing the standard of review applicable to each of the four major issues in this appeal. A. STANDING Standing is a jurisdictional question. “The federal courts are under an independent obligation to examine their own jurisdiction, and standing ‘is perhaps the most important of [the jurisdictional] doctrines.’” FW/PBS, Inc. v. City of Dallas, 493 U.S. 215, 231, 110 S.Ct. 596, 607, 107 L.Ed.2d 603 (1990) (quoting Allen v. Wright, 468 U.S. 737, 750, 104 S.Ct. 3315, 3324, 82 L.Ed.2d 556 (1984)) (alteration in FW/PBS). As with all jurisdictional issues, this Court reviews standing de novo. See, e.g., McKusick v. City of Melbourne, Fla., 96 F.3d 478, 482 (11th Cir.1996) (citation omitted). B. EVIDENTIARY FOUNDATION OF THE BBE AND HBE PROGRAMS Both the Supreme Court and this Court have held that a district court makes a factual determination when it determines whether there exists a sufficient evidentiary basis justifying affirmative action on the basis of race or ethnicity. See Wygawt v. Jackson Bd. of Educ., 476 U.S. 267, 277, 106 S.Ct. 1842, 1849, 90 L.Ed.2d 260 (1986) (“[T]he trial court must make a factual determination that the employer had a strong basis in evidence for its conclusion that remedial action was necessary.”); Ensley Branch, NAACP v. Seibels, 31 F.3d 1548, 1565 (11th Cir.1994) (same); Howard v. McLucas, 871 F.2d 1000, 1007 (11th Cir.1989) (same). We review a district court’s factual findings only for clear error. See Fed.R.Civ.P. 52(a) (mandating that “[findings of fact shall not be set aside unless clearly erroneous”). The Supreme Court has provided considerable guidance on how the appellate courts are to apply the clearly erroneous standard. Because this appeal is concerned chiefly with whether the district court clearly erred in finding that the County had failed to demonstrate a sufficient evidentiary foundation to justify the existence of the MWBE programs, a detailed review of the Supreme Court’s guidance on the clearly erroneous standard is warranted. We cannot hold a district court’s finding of fact clearly erroneous unless, in view of the entire record, we are “left with a definite and firm conviction that a mistake, has been committed.” Anderson v. City of Bessemer City, 470 U.S. 564, 573, 105 S.Ct. 1504, 1511, 84 L.Ed.2d 518 (1985) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). That is an exacting standard, purposefully designed to restrict second guessing in the factfinding arena. As the Supreme Court has explained: This standard plainly does not entitle a reviewing court to reverse the finding of the trier of fact simply because it is convinced that it would have decided the case differently____ If the district court’s account of the evidence is plausible in light of the record viewed in its entirety, the court of appeals may not reverse it even though convinced that had it been sitting as the trier of fact, it would have weighed the evidence differently. Where there are two permissible views of the evidence, the fact-finder’s choice between them cannot be clearly erroneous. Id. at 573-74, 105 S.Ct. at 1511 (citations omitted). Furthermore, our scope of review is no less circumscribed when the district court’s factfindings rest on physical or documentary evidence instead of credibility determinations. See id. at 574, 105 S.Ct. at 1511—12. The Supreme Court has explained with unmistakable clarity our duty in evaluating the district court’s factfindings in this ease. That duty most emphatically is not to decide whether we agree with the district court’s view of the evidence. Instead, we must determine only whether the district court’s view of the evidence, as reflected in its factfindings, is a permissible one, ie., a plausible one in light of the entire record. C. EVIDENTIARY FOUNDATION OF THE WBE PROGRAM Neither the Supreme Court nor this Court has squarely held that a district court makes a factual determination when it determines whether there exists a sufficient evidentiary basis justifying affirmative action on the basis of gender. Although we have had occasion to review the evidentiary foundation of gender-conscious affirmative action, we have conducted that review without specifically explaining whether we were reviewing the evidence de novo or instead reviewing the district court’s view of the evidence for clear error. For example, in Ensley Branch, 31 F.3d at 1581, we reviewed the evidentiary foundation of a gender-conscious affirmative action program and concluded that “[t]he record before us contains substantial anecdotal and statistical evidence of past discrimination against women.” Although we did not explain specifically in that case that we were reviewing the district court’s evidentiary factfindings, instead of reviewing the evidence de novo, a close reading of the opinion reveals the nature of our review. We examined the district court’s findings that “[f]or many years announcements for positions as police patrolman and firefighter were restricted to males only” and that “women were grossly underrepresented in a variety of City positions.” Id. (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). After reviewing those factual findings, we concluded: “These and related findings by the district court justify the district court’s finding that there is more than ample reason for the Personnel Board and the City of Birmingham to be concerned that they would be in time held liable for discrimination.” Id. (emphases added) (citations and internal quotation marks omitted). As a close look at our Ensley Branch opinion reveals, when we review the evidentiary basis of a gender-conscious affirmative action program, we do not review the evidence de novo. Instead, we review the evidence to determine whether it can “justify the district court’s finding” that the gender-conscious affirmative action program is or is not rooted in evidence of current or past discrimination in the relevant economic sphere. In other words, the same clearly erroneous standard gwerns our review of the evidentiary sufficiency issue involving gender-conscious programs that governs our review of the evidentiary sufficiency issue involving race- or ethnicity-conscious programs. That is true even though, as we will explain in more detail later, gender-conscious affirmative action programs may rest safely on a weaker evidentiary foundation than race- or ethnicity-conscious programs. For gender-conscious programs, we decide if the district court clearly erred in determining whether the government had a sufficient probative basis in evidence to justify affirmative action. For race- or ethnicity-conscious programs, we decide if the district court clearly erred in determining whether the government had a strong basis in evidence to justify affirmative action. Because in both circumstances the district court makes the same basic type of determination (factual), it would be illogical to apply a different standard of review. We review both determinations under the clearly erroneous standard. D. “NARROW TAILORING” AND “SUBSTANTIAL RELATIONSHIP” A district court applies law to the facts when it determines whether a race- or ethnicity-conscious remedy is narrowly tailored to serve a compelling government interest, and whether a gender-conscious remedy bears a substantial relation to an important governmental interest. After identifying the factual predicate for the affirmative action program in question, the district court makes a legal determination about whether the program’s terms are sufficiently tied to its legitimate goals to pass constitutional muster. This Court reviews de novo a district court’s application of law to the facts. See Simmons v. Conger, 86 F.3d 1080, 1084 (11th Cir.1996). We now apply the foregoing standards of review to the issues in this appeal, beginning with the standing issue. IY. STANDING The intervenors’ have mounted a two-pronged attack on the plaintiffs’ standing. First, the intervenors argue that because the plaintiffs failed to put on any evidence that they were or would be affected by each of the MWBE programs, they had no standing to challenge each program. We disagree. The undisputed facts reveal that the plaintiffs are six trade associations whose members regularly perform work for the County. There are a number of companies within each association, and the intervenors stipulated that the County “will likely exclude in the future — based on racial, ethnic and sexual criteria — plaintiffs’ non-[MWBE] members from bidding for certain contracts.” That stipulation covered all three programs, and relieved plaintiffs of the duty to put on any evidence that they would be affected by any or all of the three programs. The very purpose of a stipulation is to relieve a party of the burden it would otherwise have of introducing evidence to prove a fact. See Fed.R.Civ.P. 16(c)(3) (providing that at the pretrial conference the district court may take action directed toward “obtaining admissions of fact and of documents which will avoid unnecessary proof’). As this Court recently explained, parties may not stipulate to jurisdiction, but they may stipulate to facts that bear on our jurisdictional inquiry. See West Peninsular Title Co. v. Palm Beach County, 41 F.3d 1490, 1492 n. 4 (11th Cir.), cert. denied,—U.S.-, 116 S.Ct. 338, 133 L.Ed.2d 237 (1995). When the record contains such stipulations, we look to the record to determine whether “the stipulated facts give rise to jurisdiction.” Id. (emphasis omitted). Here, the parties’ stipulation that the plaintiffs likely will be excluded from performing future contracts with the County due to the race-, ethnicity-, and gender-conscious criteria of the MWBE programs is the end of the inquiry as to whether the plaintiffs likely will be adversely affected by all three affirmative action programs at issue in this case. The second prong of the intervenors’ attack on the plaintiffs’ standing is similar to the first. The intervenors contend that because the plaintiffs failed to establish — by stipulation or evidence — which of the five “contract measures” likely will adversely affeet them, they lack standing to challenge the MWBE programs in toto. We disagree. The existence of each of the programs, including all of its component parts, must withstand the appropriate level of constitutional scrutiny if that program is to be upheld. Either a program is grounded on a proper evidentiary factual predicate or it is not. If it is, then that program sails on to the next stage of the analysis, where each component contract measure is tested against the “narrow tailoring” and “substantial relationship” requirements. On the other hand, if a program is not grounded on a proper evidentiary basis, then all of the contract measures go down with the ship, irrespective of any narrow tailoring or substantial relationship analysis. By stipulation, the plaintiffs’ members are competing with MWBEs for County construction contracts, and because of the MWBE programs they do not compete on an equal basis. When the government loads the dice that way, the Supreme Court says that anyone in the game has standing to raise a constitutional challenge. “The injury in cases of this kind is that a discriminatory classification prevent[s] the plaintiff from competing on an equal footing.” Adarand Constructors, Inc. v. Pena, 515 U.S. 200, 211, 115 S.Ct. 2097, 2105, 132 L.Ed.2d 158 (1995) (alteration in original) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). “To establish standing, therefore, a party challenging a set-aside program ... need only demonstrate that it is able and ready to bid on contracts and that a discriminatory policy prevents it from doing so on an equal basis.” Northeastern Florida Contractors v. City of Jacksonville, 508 U.S. 656, 666, 113 S.Ct. 2297, 2303, 124 L.Ed.2d 586 (1993). We are satisfied that the plaintiffs have standing to challenge the constitutionality of the MWBE programs, and we turn now to the merits of that challenge. V. LEGAL STANDARDS FOR SCRUTINIZING AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PROGRAMS A. RACIAL AND ETHNIC PREFERENCES Because the BBE and HBE programs create preferences based on race and ethnicity, the relevant constitutional standard applicable to those programs is the strict scrutiny test articulated in City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson Co., 488 U.S. 469, 109 S.Ct. 706, 102 L.Ed.2d 854 (1989). That test requires a “searching judicial inquiry” into the justification for the preference, because without that kind of close analysis “there is simply no way of determining what classifications are ‘benign’ or ‘remedial’ and what classifications are in fact motivated by illegitimate notions of racial inferiority or simple racial politics.” Id. at 493, 109 S.Ct. at 721. Accordingly, strict scrutiny is designed both to “ ‘smoke out’ illegitimate uses of race by assuring that the legislative body is pursuing a goal important enough to warrant use of a highly suspect tool” and to “ensure[] that the means chosen ‘fit’ this compelling goal so closely that there is little or no possibility that the motive for the classification was illegitimate racial prejudice or stereotype.” Id. Under strict scrutiny, an affirmative action program must be based upon a “compelling governmental interest” and must be “narrowly tailored” to achieve that interest. E.g., Ensley Branch, 31 F.3d at 1564 (citations omitted). As we have observed: In practice, the interest that is alleged in support of racial preferences is almost always the same — remedying past or present discrimination. That interest is widely accepted as compelling. As a result, the true test of an affirmative action program is usually not the nature of the government’s interest, but rather the adequacy of the evidence of discrimination offered to show that interest. Id. at 1565 (citations and internal quotation marks omitted). If a race- or ethnicity-conscious affirmative action program is to be upheld, “the district court must make a factual determination that [there exists] a strong basis in evidence” to support the conclusion that remedial action is necessary. Id. (citation and internal quotation marks omitted); see also Croson, 488 U.S. at 500, 109 S.Ct. at 725 (plurality opinion). As we explained in Ens ley Branch, “[c]ertain aspects of this inquiry are well established.” 31 F.3d at 1565. A “strong basis in evidence” cannot rest on “an amorphous claim of societal discrimination, on simple legislative assurances of good intention, or on congressional findings of discrimination in the national economy.” Id. (citing and applying Croson) (internal quotation marks omitted). However, a governmental entity can “justify affirmative action by demonstrating ‘gross statistical disparities’ between the proportion of minorities hired ... and the proportion of minorities willing and able to do the work.” Id. (citations omitted). “Anecdotal evidence may also be used to document discrimination, especially if buttressed by relevant statistical evidence.” Id. (citation omitted). Accordingly, “if the [County] could show that it had essentially become a ‘passive participant’ in a system of racial exclusion practiced by elements of the local construction industry,” the Supreme Court has made it “clear that the [County] could take affirmative steps to dismantle such a system.” Croson, 488 U.S. at 492, 109 S.Ct. at 721 (plurality opinion). Here, the district court reviewed the evidence and made a factual determination that the County lacked the requisite strong basis in evidence to support the County’s conclusion that race- and ethnicity-conscious remedial action is necessary. 943 F.Supp. at 1584. As previously explained, our role in re-reviewing that evidence is limited. Our task is not to determine whether the district court’s factfinding is “correct” in the sense of ultimate truth. Instead, under the clearly erroneous standard, our duty is to examine the record solely to determine whether the district court’s view of the evidence is a permissible one, a plausible one in light of the entire record. B. GENDER PREFERENCES 1. The Effect of the VMI Decision At first blush, the relevant constitutional standard to be applied to the WBE program is not entirely clear. Traditionally, gender-based affirmative action programs have been governed by intermediate scrutiny, meaning that “[t]o withstand constitutional challenge, ... classifications by gender must serve important governmental objectives and must be substantially related to achievement of those objectives.” Craig v. Boren, 429 U.S. 190, 197, 97 S.Ct. 451, 456-57, 50 L.Ed.2d 397 (1976). That has been the standard for two full decades, and the district court applied it to this case. See 943 F.Supp. at 1556. The district court was concerned, however, by the Supreme Court’s recent decision in United States v. Virginia,-—U.S.-, 116 S.Ct. 2264, 135 L.Ed.2d 735 (1996) (invalidating maintenance of single-sex education program at Virginia Military Institute) (hereinafter “VMI”). In VMI, the Court held that “[p]arties who seek to defend gender-based government action must demonstrate an ‘exceedingly persuasive justification’ for that action.” Id. at-, 116 S.Ct. at 2274 (citations omitted). The phrase “exceedingly persuasive justification” permeates the Court’s VMI opinion, id. at--,-,-,-,-, 116 S.Ct. at 2271, 2274, 2276, 2282, 2287] and that phrase connotes more intense scrutiny than do customary descriptions of intermediate scrutiny. See id. at -, 116 S.Ct. at 2294 (Scalia, J., dissenting) (suggesting that the majority had effectively adopted a form of strict scrutiny for gender classifications). Nevertheless, the VMI Court expressly disclaimed “equating gender classifications, for all purposes, to classifications based on race or national origin.” Id. at-, 116 S.Ct. at 2275 (majority opinion). The district court assumed without deciding that traditional intermediate scrutiny still applies to gender-conscious affirmative action programs. See 943 F.Supp. at 1556. Finding that the WBE program lacked a sufficient evidentiary foundation to withstand traditional intermediate level scrutiny, the district court found it unnecessary to decide whether the VMI decision raised the constitutional hurdle over which gender-conscious affirmative action programs must leap. See id. We conclude that the district court was correct to apply intermediate scrutiny to the WBE program. First, although the phrase “exceedingly persuasive justification” has more linguistic verve than conventional descriptions of intermediate scrutiny, it does not necessarily follow that a new constitutional standard for judging gender preferences is embodied in that phrase. Concurring in VMI, Chief Justice Rehnquist suggested that the “phrase is best confined, as it was first used, as an observation on the difficulty of meeting the applicable test, not as a formulation of the test itself.” VMI,—U.S. at-, 116 S.Ct. at 2288 (Rehnquist, C.J., concurring). Similarly, Justice Sealia suggested that the answer to whether the justification for a gender classification is “exceedingly persuasive” is properly derived from considering whether the classification serves important governmental objectives and is substantially related to their achievement. Id. at-, 116 S.Ct. at 2294 (Sealia, J., dissenting). That is an attractive resolution of the issue — especially in view of the fact that the majority opinion in VMI recites the time-honored intermediate scrutiny standard with approval even as it explains how a district court must evaluate whether the proffered justification for a gender classification is “exceedingly persuasive.” See id. at-. 116 S.Ct. at 2275 (majority opinion). Moreover, a holding that the Supreme Court has abandoned traditional intermediate scrutiny in favor of a more restrictive formulation would mean that the Court has overruled sub silentio its long line of precedents applying intermediate scrutiny to gender classifications. See id. at-, 116 S.Ct. at 2288 (Rehnquist, C.J., concurring) (listing Supreme Court precedents applying traditional intermediate scrutiny). Even if the VMI case portends a major change in the Supreme Court’s approach to gender classifications, “we are not at liberty to disregard binding case law that is so closely on point and has been only weakened, rather than directly overruled, by the Supreme Court.” Florida League of Prof'l Lobbyists v. Meggs, 87 F.3d 457, 462 (11th Cir.1996). The Supreme Court has cautioned us that “[i]f a precedent of this Court has direct application in a case, yet appears to rest on reasons rejected in some other line of decisions, the Court of Appeals should follow the case which directly controls, leaving to this Court the prerogative of overruling its own decisions.” Rodriguez de Quijas v. Shear-son/American Express, Inc., 490 U.S. 477, 484, 109 S.Ct. 1917, 1921-22, 104 L.Ed.2d 526 (1989); see also Agostini v. Felton,—U.S.-,--, 117 S.Ct. 1997, 2017, 138 L.Ed.2d 391 (1997) (reaffirming that holding of Rodriguez de Quijas). Of course, we take that admonition seriously. See, e.g., Brisentine v. Stone & Webster Eng’g Corp., 117 F.3d 519,-(11th Cir.1997); Scala v. City of Winter Park, 116 F.3d 1396, 1399 n.2 (11th Cir.1997). There is a long line of directly applicable Supreme Court precedents applying traditional intermediate scrutiny to gender classifications. More specifically, the Supreme Court held in Mississippi University for Women v. Hogan, 458 U.S. 718, 724, 102 S.Ct. 3331, 3335, 73 L.Ed.2d 1090 (1982), that intermediate scrutiny was the appropriate test to apply to a gender-based classification favoring women, which is the same type of classification created by the County’s WBE program. Instead of overruling Mississippi University for Women, the VMI Court cited that case as “immediately in point” and the “closest guide” for the VMI decision itself. VMI,—U.S. at -, -, 116 S.Ct. at 2275, 2271. The Supreme Court is not in the practice of overruling its own precedents by citing them with approval, and we decline to hold that the Court did so in the VMI ease. Unless and until the Supreme Court tells us otherwise, intermediate scrutiny remains the applicable constitutional standard in gender discrimination cases, and a gender preference may be upheld so long as it is substantially related to an important governmental objective. 2. The Requisite Evidentiary Showing In attempting to satisfy the important governmental objective prong of the intermediate scrutiny test, the County contends that the objective of the WBE program is to “redress discrimination against women.” That stated objective is typical, and it is unquestionably a sufficiently “important” one to sustain a gender-conscious affirmative action program. See Califano v. Webster, 430 U.S. 313, 318, 97 S.Ct. 1192, 1195, 51 L.Ed.2d 360 (1977) (upholding affirmative action in the calculation of Social Security retirement benefits where “[t]he challenged statute operated directly to compensate women for past economic discrimination”); see also, e.g., Ensley Branch, 31 F.3d at 1580 (holding that “the government interest prong of the inquiry can be satisfied by a showing of societal discrimination in the relevant economic sector”). Therefore, as in the racial analogue, “the true test of an affirmative action program is usually not the nature of the government’s interest, but rather the adequacy of the evidence of discrimination offered to show that interest.” Id. at 1565 (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). Although it is clear that both gender-conscious and race- or ethnicity-conscious programs must be tested for evidentiary sufficiency, the measure of the evidence required is less clear in the gender context. The Supreme Court has not addressed the question explicitly, and there is a similar dearth of guidance in the reported decisions of other federal appellate courts. As the Third Circuit has observed, “Few cases have considered the evidentiary burden needed to satisfy intermediate scrutiny in this context and there is no Croson analogue to provide a ready reference point.” Contractors Ass’n v. City of Philadelphia, 6 F.3d 990, 1010 (3d Cir.1993). The Supreme Court has told us plainly that race- and ethnicity-conscious programs must be tested for a “strong basis in evidence,” and a body of appellate jurisprudence has developed to provide that label with meaningful content. See, e.g., Croson, 488 U.S. at 499-504, 109 S.Ct. at 724-27 (identifying factors that cannot form a “strong basis in evidence”); Ensley Branch, 31 F.3d at 1565 (citing and applying Croson). In the gender context, however, we must work without an analogous evidentiary label from the Supreme Court, and the jurisprudence is less developed. Regardless of what label might be affixed to the standard, it is clear to us that a gender-conscious affirmative action program can rest safely on something less than the “strong basis in evidence” required to bear the weight of a race- or ethnicity-conscious program. We agree with the Third Circuit that “[l]ogically, a [local government] must be able to rely on less evidence in enacting a gender preference than a racial preference because applying Croson’s evidentiary standard to a gender preference would eviscerate the difference between strict and intermediate scrutiny.” Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1010; see also Peter Lurie, Comment, The Law as They Found It: Disentangling Gender-Based Affirmative Action Programs from Croson, 59 U. Chi. L.Rev. 1563, 1584-89 (1992) (concluding that “[t]he factual predicate required cannot be equal to that needed to support a racial classification” because “[appending a Croson-style factual predicate to the standard disingenuously transforms” intermediate scrutiny into strict scrutiny). While there is a difference between the evidentiary foundation necessary to support a race- or ethnicity-conscious affirmative action program and the evidentiary foundation necessary to support a gender preference, that difference is one of degree, not of kind. In both circumstances, the test of the program is the adequacy of evidence of discrimination, but in the gender context less evidence is required. The difficulty, of course, is in determining how much less. Thus far, the Third Circuit is the only federal appellate court that has explicitly attempted to clarify the evidentiary requirement applicable to gender-conscious programs. In Contractors Association, it announced that the intermediate scrutiny standard “requires the [government] to present probative evidence in support of its stated rationale for the gender preference, discrimination against women-owned contractors.” Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1010 (emphasis added). After announcing the “probative evidence” standard, the Contractors Association court went on to hold that the evidence of discrimination against women that the government had offered was “insufficient to create an issue of fact.” Id. at 1011. It reached that conclusion even though the government had offered some evidence of discrimination against women, including a statistical study, an affidavit, and the testimony of a witness who had appeared at a city council hearing. See id. Plainly, the evidence offered by the government in Contractors Association was “probative” as that word is commonly understood, because it tended, at least to some extent, to prove discrimination against women. See, e.g., Black’s Law Dictionary 1203 (6th ed.1990) (defining “probative evidence” as evidence “tending to prove” or which “contributes toward proof’). The probative evidence in Contractors Association was nonetheless judged “insufficient.” We think that the court’s holding in Contractor’s Association is more helpful than the “probative evidence” standard the opinion articulates. Under the Third Circuit’s holding, evidence offered in support of a gender preference must not only be “probative,” it must also be “sufficient.” We agree with the Third Circuit’s de facto requirement that a proponent of a gender-conscious affirmative action program must present not only probative evidence of discrimination, but sufficient probative evidence of it. Of course, that formulation begs the question of when the evidence becomes “sufficient,” but no more so than the Supreme Court’s requirement of a “strong basis in evidence” in the racial analogue begs the question of when the evidence becomes “strong.” In both contexts, the evidentiary standards necessarily are tautological when the words alone are considered and must draw meaning from an evolving body of case law that will define them. Although the difference between the “strong basis in evidence” standard applicable to race- or ethnicity-conscious programs and the less stringent “sufficient probative evidence” standard applicable to gender-conscious programs cannot be measured or described with scientific precision, we have previously recognized two principal guidelines that mark the boundaries of intermediate scrutiny evidentiary analysis. First, “[u]nder the intermediate scrutiny test, a local government must demonstrate some past discrimination against women, but not necessarily discrimination by the government itself.” Ensley Branch, 31 F.3d at 1580. Indeed, “[o]ne of the distinguishing features of intermediate scrutiny is that, unlike strict scrutiny, the government interest prong of the inquiry can be satisfied by a showing of societal discrimination in the relevant economic sector.” Id. (citations omitted). Thus, to be sufficient the evidence need not be about governmental discrimination. Second, the intermediate scrutiny evidentiary review is not to be directed toward mandating that gender-conscious affirmative action is used only as a “last resort,” Hayes v. North State Law Enforcement Officers Ass’n, 10 F.3d 207, 217 (4th Cir.1993) (racial discrimination case), but instead to ensuring that the affirmative action program is “a product of analysis rather than a stereotyped reaction based on habit,” Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1010 (quoting Metro Broadcasting, Inc. v. FCC, 497 U.S. 547, 582-83, 110 S.Ct. 2997, 3018-19, 111 L.Ed.2d 445 (1990)). Nevertheless, any ‘“analysis’ that rests upon unsupported factual premises cannot possibly be ‘reasoned,’ and an untrue and widely-held generalization about men or women is by definition a ‘stereotype.’ ” Lamprecht v. FCC, 958 F.2d 382, 393 n. 3 (D.C.Cir.1992) (Thomas, Circuit Justice). That is why the intermediate scrutiny evidentiary “inquiry turns on whether there is evidence of past discrimination in the economic sphere at which the affirmative action program is directed.” Ensley Branch, 31 F.3d at 1581. Unsupported generalizations will not suffice. Although suffieiency-of-the-evidence standards may elude precise formulation, we believe the foregoing two guidelines will assist courts in determining when a government has presented sufficient probative evidence in support of its stated rationale for enacting a gender preference, i.e., when the evidence is sufficient to show that the preference rests on evidence-informed analysis rather than on stereotypical generalizations. Under those guidelines, the government must satisfy an “intermediate” standard—less stringent than the “strong basis in evidence” standard associated with strict scrutiny, yet more demanding than merely any probative evidence. The Third Circuit’s actual holding in Contractors Association that the evidence there was insufficient, a holding with which we agree, provides some guidance to bench and bar. We hope our decision about whether the district court clearly erred in finding that the specific evidentiary showing in this case is insufficient will provide additional guidanee. Future eases may serve to clarify further the evidentiary standard applicable to gender-conscious affirmative action programs, but for the time being we need only decide whether the district court clearly erred in finding that Dade County failed to meet its evidentiary burden in this case. In this case, the district court reviewed the evidence that the County offered in support of the WBE program, and it made a factual determination that the evidence was “insufficient to provide the factual predicate to support the County’s state[d] rationale for its gender preference program.” 943 F.Supp. at 1584. As with the racial and ethnicity preference programs, we have a limited role to play in evaluating that factfinding. We will not review the evidence to determine whether we would have reached a different conclusion if we had been sitting as the trier of fact. Instead, we will review the evidence only to determine whether the district court’s view of the evidence is a permissible one, a plausible one in light of the entire record. VI. THE EVIDENCE The County put forward two types of evidence in support of its MWBE programs: (1) statistical evidence and (2) nonstatistical or “anecdotal” evidence. Because much of the statistical evidence is derived from studies related to more than one MWBE program, we will review the statistical evidence for all three of the programs simultaneously, bearing in mind that a less stringent standard of review applies to the WBE program. After reviewing the statistical evidence, we will review the anecdotal evidence, which is focused almost exclusively on the BBE program. Before turning to the evidentiary details, however, we address an issue that bears on much of the analysis that will follow. With respect to the BBE program, most of the statistical evidence presented by the County is “post-enactment” evidence, i.e. evidence based on data related to years following the County’s initial enactment of the BBE program in 1982. As we and a number of other circuits have held, the use of that kind of evidence is permissible: Although Croson requires that a public employer show strong evidence of discrimination when defending an affirmative action plan, the Supreme Court has never required that, before implementing affirmative action, the employer must have already proved that it has discriminated. On the contrary, formal findings of discrimination need neither precede nor accompany the adoption of affirmative action. Ensley Branch, 31 F.3d at 1565; see also Concrete Works v. City & County of Denver, 36 F.3d 1513, 1521 (10th Cir.1994), cert. denied, 514 U.S. 1004, 115 S.Ct. 1315, 131 L.Ed.2d 196 (1995); Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1003-04 (3d Cir.1993); Harrison & Burrowes Bridge Constructors, Inc. v. Cuomo, 981 F.2d 50, 60 (2d Cir.1992); Coral Constr. Co. v. King County, 941 F.2d 910, 920 (9th Cir.1991). Without repeating everything we had to say in Ensley Branch on this subject, it warrants emphasis that consideration of post-enactment evidence is appropriate when affirmative action programs are scrutinized, because “[a] violation of federal statutory or constitutional requirements does not arise with the making of a finding; it arises when the wrong is committed.” Wygant v. Jackson Bd. of Educ., 476 U.S. 267, 289, 106 S.Ct. 1842, 1855, 90 L.Ed.2d 260 (1986) (O’Connor, J., concurring). Therefore, if the County can demonstrate that, notwithstanding its affirmative action efforts, it remains a “ ‘passive participant’ in a system of racial exclusion practiced by elements of the local construction industry,” Croson, 488 U.S. at 492, 109 S.Ct. at 721 (plurality opinion), there is no justification for invalidating the County’s voluntary efforts to dismantle that exclusionary system, at least to the extent that those efforts are narrowly tailored to accomplishment of that goal. This is particularly true in light of the fact that the relief granted to the plaintiffs by the district court is a permanent injunction against the continued operation of the MWBE programs. See Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1004 (observing that “[bjecause injunctions are prospective only, it makes sense to consider all available evidence ... including the post-enactment evidence”). Although post-enactment evidence is admissible to determine whether an affirmative action program is constitutional, such evidence carries with it the hazard that the program at issue may itself be masking discrimination that might otherwise be occurring in the relevant market. In view of that hazard, the County contends that the district court erred when it “failed to consider that the 12 year pre-existing BBE program caused the foregoing [statistical] measures of participation to understate disparity for Black participation.” On that point, the County is mistaken, because the district court did consider that possibility. In fact, the district court observed that the County’s use of post-enactment evidence was “skewed by the challenged affirmative action program,” 943 F.Supp. at 1558, even though the court nevertheless considered in detail the post-enactment evidence that the County itself chose to present. What the district court did not do is speculate about what the data might have shown had the BBE program never been enacted. We find no fault in that approach, because a strong basis in evidence can never arise from sheer speculation. Government actors are free to introduce post-enactment evidence in defending affirmative action programs, but if that evidence fails to meet the applicable evidentiary burden, a federal court cannot simply presume that, absent the programs, sufficient BBE: 1989-91 evidence of discrimination would have been found. Like the district court, we take the County’s evidence as we find it, or rather as the County presented it. A THE STATISTICAL EVIDENCE The County presented five basic categories of statistical evidence to the district court: (1) County contracting statistics; (2) County subcontracting statistics; (3) marketplace data statistics; (4) The Wainwright Study; and (5) The Brimmer Study. Below, we describe and summarize each of those categories of statistical evidence in turn. 1. County Contracting Statistics The heart of the County’s statistical analysis is a study that compares the following three factors for County nonprocurement construction contracts: (1) the percentage of bidders that were MWBE firms; (2) the percentage of awardees that were MWBE firms; and (3) the proportion of County contract dollars that have been awarded to MWBE firms. The study makes those comparisons for two time periods: 1989-91 and 1993. Fiscal year 1992 was not included in the study, because of the extraordinary expenditures associated with Hurricane Andrew. The statistics for the years that were included may be summarized as follows: At least one thing is fairly obvious from the foregoing statistics. For the BBE and HBE statistics, there are no consistently negative disparities between the bidder and the awardee percentages. In fact, by 1993, the BBE and HBE bidders are being awarded more than their proportionate “share” of the total number of County contracts in every SIC category, when the bidder percentages are used as the baseline for predicting those shares. There are a couple of exceptions to that observation, but in general it is true. Therefore, as an initial matter, we certainly cannot conclude that the district court clearly erred by failing to find a strong basis in evidence of discrimination against BBEs and HBEs from disparities between bidder and awardee percentages. For WBEs, the bidder/awardee results are decidedly mixed. For SIC 17, WBEs consistently have been awarded more than then-proportionate share of County contracts. For SIC 15 and SIC 16 in years 1989-91, the difference between the WBE bidder and awardee percentages is small, but disfavorable to the WBEs. For those same categories in 1993, however, the difference between WBE bidders and awardees is more disfavor-able to WBEs — at the same time the favorable disparity in SIC 17 has also increased. Without further analytical refinement, we cannot say that the district court clearly erred by failing to find in the mixed picture presented by the WBE bidder/awardee disparities a sufficiently probative basis in the evidence of discrimination in the relevant economic sector to justify the County’s use of a gender preference. The County’s study refined the foregoing statistical analysis by bringing into the mix the percentage of County construction contract dollars actually being awarded to MWBEs. To do that, the study calculated “disparity indices” for each program and SIC code. In colloquial terms, a disparity index compares the amount of contract awards a group actually got to the amount we would have expected it to get based on that group’s bidding activity and awardee success rate. More specifically, a disparity index measures the participation of a group in County contracting dollars by dividing that group’s contract dollar percentage by the related bidder or awardee percentage, and multiplying that result by 100%. The closer the resulting index is to 100%, the greater the measured group’s participation in the contracting dollars. For instance, if the BBEs represented 10% of bidders, and were awarded 10% of contract dollars, the bidder disparity index would be: (Contract Dollar % h- Bidder %) x 100% = (10% - 10%) x 100% = 1 x 100% = 100% or “full participation” Similarly, if the BBEs represented 10% of awardees, but were awarded only 5% of contract dollars, the awardee disparity index would be: (Contract Dollar % h- Awardee %) x 100% = (5% -h 10%) x 100% = .5 x 100% = 50% or “half participation” The utility of disparity indices or similar measures to examine the utilization of minorities or women in a particular industry has been recognized by a number of federal circuit courts. See Concrete Works, 36 F.3d at 1523 n. 10 (10th Cir.1994) (employing disparity index); Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1005 (3d Cir.1993) (employing disparity index); Associated Gen. Contractors v. Coalition for Economic Equity, 950 F.2d 1401, 1414 (9th Cir.1991) (employing similar statistical data); see also Stuart v. Roache, 951 F.2d 446, 451 (1st Cir.1991) (employing similar statistical data); Cone Corp. v. Hillsborough County, 908 F.2d 908, 915-16 (11th Cir.1990) (employing similar statistical data). In general, and as the district court recognized, disparity indices of 80% or greater, which are close to full participation, are not considered indications of discrimination. For instance, the EEOC’s disparate impact guidelines use the 80% test as the boundary line for determining a prima facie case of discrimination. 29 C.F.R. § 1607.4D. Additionally, none of the circuits that have explicitly endorsed the use of disparity indices have indicated that an index of 80% or greater might be probative of discrimination. See Concrete Works, 36 F.3d at 1524 (10th Cir.1994) (crediting disparity indices ranging from 0% to 3.8%); Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1005 (3d Cir.1993) (crediting disparity index of 4%). The district court did not consider disparity indices of 80% or greater to be probative of discrimination. In light of the foregoing authority, including the EEOC’s guidance on the subject, we cannot say that view of the evidence was clearly erroneous. After calculation of the disparity indices, the County’s study tested the statistical significance of the results through the application of standard deviation analysis. The standard deviation figure describes the probability that the measured disparity is the result of mere chance. As we previously have recognized: Social scientists consider a finding of two standard deviations significant, meaning there is about one chance in 20 that the explanation for the deviation could be random and the deviation must be accounted for by some factor other than chance. Peightal v. Metropolitan Dade County, 26 F.3d 1545, 1556 n. 16 (11th Cir.1994) (quoting Waisome v. Port Authority, 948 F.2d 1370, 1376 (2d Cir.1991)). The disparity indices for the County’s contracting statistics, together with their corresponding standard deviation values, are as follows: In the absence of further refinement, the foregoing statistics would indicate statistically significant underutilization of BBEs in County construction contracting. With the exception of SIC 17 for 1993, there are substantial and statistically significant unfavorable disparities for County contract dollars— in terms of bidder participation, awardee participation, or both. For SIC 17 in 1993, there is a substantial unfavorable disparity with respect to both bidder and awardee participation, but neither figure is statistically significant. With HBEs, the results are less dramatic. For 1989-91, there are substantial and statistically significant unfavorable disparities for County contract dollars in all three SIC categories. However, by 1993, there are no statistically significant unfavorable disparities, and in SIC 17 the disparity (albeit statistically insignificant) is favorable toward Hispanics. For WBEs, the picture is mixed. For 1989-91, there is a substantial and statistically significant unfavorable disparity only in SIC 15. However, with standard deviation values of 1.9 for both bidder and awardee participation, the substantial unfavorable disparity in SIC 17 very closely approaches statistical significance. On the other hand, the disparities for SIC 16 in 1989-91 during the same time frame are favorable to WBEs. Turning to 1993, the only category with a statistically significant unfavorable disparity is SIC 15. For SIC 16, the disparity for awardee participation is insubstantial, and for bidder participation is substantial but statistically insignificant. For SIC 17, the disparities (though statistically insignificant) are favorable toward WBEs. As this circuit and others have recognized, when the proponent of an affirmative action plan produces sufficient evidence to support an inference of discrimination, the plaintiff must rebut that inference in order to prevail. See Concrete Works, 36 F.3d at 1522 (10th Cir.1994); Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1006 (3d Cir.1993); Howard v. McLucas, 871 F.2d 1000, 1007 (11th Cir.1989). As we explained in Howard, which involved public employment, once the proponent of affirmative action: introduces its statistical proof as evidence of its remedial purpose, thereby supplying the [district] court with the means for determining that [it] had a firm basis for concluding that remedial action was appropriate, it is incumbent upon the nonminority [employees] to prove their case; they continue to bear the ultimate burden of persuading the [district] court that the [public employer’s] evidence did not support an inference of prior discrimination and thus a remedial purpose, or that the plan instituted on the basis of this evidence was not sufficiently “narrowly tailored.” Id. at 1007 (quoting Wygant v. Jackson Bd. of Educ., 476 U.S. 267, 293, 106 S.Ct. 1842, 1856, 90 L.Ed.2d 260 (O’Connor, J., concurring in part and concurring in the judgment)). Typically, when statistical evidence is sufficient to support an inference of discrimination, plaintiffs have at their disposal at least three methods of rebutting that inference with a “neutral explanation.” Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1007. Plaintiffs may do so by: “(1) showing that the statistics are flawed; (2) demonstrating that the disparities shown by the statistics are not significant or actionable; or (3) presenting contrasting statistical data.” Coral Constr., 941 F.2d at 921 (citation omitted); Contractors Ass’n, 6 F.3d at 1007 (listing same methods). We need not decide whether the foregoing statistical analysis was sufficient to support an inference of discrimination such that the plaintiffs were required to rebut that inference, because the plaintiffs did produce sufficient evidence to establish a neutra