Full opinion text
REENA RAGGI, Circuit Judge: In response to reports that China was enforcing its “one family, one child” population control policy through forced abortions and forced sterilizations, in 1996, Congress expressly extended the Immigration and Nationality Act’s definition of a political “refugee” to include persons who had “been forced to abort a pregnancy or to undergo involuntary sterilization, or who [had] been persecuted for failure or refusal to undergo such a procedure or for other resistance to a coercive population control program,” as well as persons who have “a well founded fear” that they “will be forced to undergo such a procedure or subject to persecution for such failure, refusal, or resistance.” 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42); see Ke Zhen Zhao v. U.S. Dep’t of Justice, 265 F.3d 83, 91-92 (2d Cir.2001) (discussing background to change in law). These three petitions involve Chinese nationals who have not claimed or credibly demonstrated that they had personally experienced or been threatened with any such persecution. Nevertheless, they assert that their fear of such future persecution is well founded because they have fathered or given birth to more children than are authorized under Chinese population control policies. We address these petitions in a single opinion because similar well-founded fear claims are now pending in hundreds of petitions for review to this court, and these three cases present us with the prece-dential responses from the Board of Immigration Appeals (“BIA”) to the common question raised in the different contexts of these cases: under what circumstances can a Chinese national rely on the birth of more than one child to demonstrate the well-founded fear of persecution necessary to qualify for asylum as a “refugee”? See In re J-H-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. 196 (B.I.A. 2007) (addressing issue on direct review with respect to children born in China); In re J-W-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. 185 (B.I.A. 2007) (addressing issue on direct review with respect to children born in United States); In re S-Y-G-, 24 I. & N. Dec. 247 (B.I.A.2007) (addressing issue on motion to reopen with respect to one child born in China and second child born in United States). The BIA has determined that the question admits no categorical answer, largely because of local variations in Chinese officials’ understanding and enforcement of their nation’s birth control policies. Thus, the Board has declined to construe the statutory term “refugee” to exclude or to include all Chinese nationals who have fathered or given birth to more than one child. Rather, it has determined that a case-by-case review is necessary to identify which Chinese nationals with two or more children demonstrate a fear of future persecution that is both subjectively genuine and objectively reasonable. See Jian Xing Huang v. INS, 421 F.3d 125, 128 (2d Cir.2005) (noting subjective and objective components of well-founded fear claim); Ramsameachire v. Ashcroft, 357 F.3d 169, 178 (2d Cir.2004) (same). No party before the court on these petitions challenges this flexible construction of the statute. Instead, each petitioner faults the BIA’s analysis of the evidence in his or her particular case, an analysis generally informed by a three-part inquiry: has petitioner (1) identified the government policy implicated by the births at issue, (2) established that government officials would view the births as a violation of the policy, and (3) demonstrated a reasonable possibility that government officials would enforce the policy against petitioner through means constituting persecution? Because we identify no legal error in this evidentia-ry framework and because substantial evidence supports the BIA’s findings that each of the petitioners failed to demonstrate that his or her stated fears of persecution on return to China were objectively reasonable, we deny these petitions for review. I. Background Athough the three petitions before us present a common issue, they do so in different factual and procedural contexts that we outline briefly at the outset: (1) in Jian Hui Shao’s case, the BIA reviewed (a) on direct appeal (b) an order of removal (c) against a male petitioner generally found not credible except for the fact that (d) he had fathered two children in China before fleeing to the United States; (2) in Ji Wen Shi’s case, the agency reviewed (a) on direct appeal (b) a grant of relief from removal (c) to a credible male applicant (d) who had married and fathered two children in the United States after fleeing China; and (3) in Show Yung Guo’s case, the agency considered (a) a motion to reopen (b) by a woman previously found not credible except for the fact that (c) she had given birth to two children, one in China and one in the United States, but who (d) now offered various documents from family planning authorities in her native province and town to support a claim of changed country conditions giving rise to a fear of future persecution based simply on the number of her children. The BIA’s initial rulings denying relief in each case prompted petitions for review in this court, each of which resulted in remands, in two cases by court order, see Jian Hui Shao v. BIA, 465 F.3d 497 (2d Cir.2006); Shou Yung Guo v. Gonzales, 463 F.3d 109 (2d Cir.2006), and in the case of Ji Wen Shi by stipulation of the parties. Preliminary to discussing the challenged precedential decisions prompted by these remands, we briefly recount the events leading to those decisions. A. Proceedings Leading to Prece-dential Decisions 1. Jian Hui Shao a. Initial Agency Proceedings In February 2002, Jian Hui Shao, a native of Fuzhou City in China’s Fujian Province, attempted to enter the United States unlawfully. In subsequent removal proceedings, Jian Hui Shao conceded re-movability but applied for asylum and withholding of removal under the Immigration and Nationality Act (“INA”), 8 U.S.C. § 1101 el seq., and for relief under the Convention Against Torture (“CAT”). Jian Hui Shao asserted that he feared forcible sterilization in China because he had fathered two daughters in that country and Chinese law prohibited him, a non-agricultural worker, from having more than one child. To demonstrate the reasonableness of his fear — and to explain his abandonment of his wife in China only weeks after discovering her second pregnancy — Jian Hui Shao testified that he had been beaten and jailed by Chinese officials after his wife missed a gynecological examination intended to ensure her compliance with family planning policies and he refused to disclose her whereabouts. Identifying various inconsistencies and implausibilities in Jian Hui Shao’s account, the immigration judge (“IJ”) found him not credible in all respects but one: the fact that he now had two children in China. See In re Jian Hui Shao, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ], at 14-15 (Immig. Ct. N.Y. City Feb. 27, 2003). The IJ denied petitioner relief from removal, a determination summarily upheld by the BIA on initial direct review. See In re Jian Hui Shao, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ] (B.I.A. June 28, 2004). b. Proceedings in this Court On Jian Hui Shao’s initial petition for review by this court, we concluded that the agency’s adverse credibility determination was supported by substantial evidence. See Jian Hui Shao v. BIA, 465 F.3d at 500-01. Nevertheless, we remanded the case for further agency consideration of the question “under what circumstances, if any, having two children in China is sufficient grounds for a well-founded fear of future persecution.” Id. at 501. In so ruling, we noted that, in Jian Xing Huang v. INS, this court had “expressed skepticism” as to whether an alien with two children born in the United States could demonstrate a well-founded fear of forced sterilization on removal to China “absent specific facts — beyond the general conditions in China — giving rise to his subjective fear.” Jian Hui Shao v. BIA 465 F.3d at 501 (citing Jian Xing Huang v. INS, 421 F.3d at 129). Nevertheless, because Jian Hui Shao’s children “were born in and live in China,” we considered the possibility that such circumstances might warrant a different assessment of the objective reasonableness of petitioner’s professed fear. Id. (emphasis added). Noting that the INA’s definition of a “refugee” did not clearly resolve the issue and that the BIA — the agency charged with the INA’s enforcement and thus entitled to deference with regard to the statute’s interpretation — had not previously considered the point, we decided to remand. See id. at 501-03 (citing Chevron U.S.A. Inc. v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc., 467 U.S. 837, 104 S.Ct. 2778, 81 L.Ed.2d 694 (1984); Shi Liang Lin v. U.S. Dep’t of Justice, 416 F.3d 184, 189-91 (2d Cir.2005)). In making that determination, we noted the far-reaching implications of any decision: Jian Hui Shao’s circumstances were shared by “innumerable potential asylum applicants” and the grant of asylum to all persons with more children than allowed by China’s family planning policies would raise “complicated” foreign and public policy questions. Id. at 502. Thus, we observed that “a precedential decision by the BIA— or the Supreme Court of the United States” was desirable to assure uniformity in such eases. Id. We anticipated that the remand question might not admit a single answer applicable throughout China. We observed that the BIA was “better prepared” than federal circuit courts “to evaluate whether different regions of China enforce divergent family planning policies and whether applicants from diverse locales should accordingly receive different treatment in asylum proceedings.” Id. 2. Ji Wen Shi a. Order of Removal In July 1992, Ji Wen Shi, a native of Changle City in Fujian Province, attempted to enter the United States unlawfully. Failing to appear for his removal proceedings in January 1993, Ji Wen Shi was initially ordered removed in absentia. b. Grant of Reopening and Relief from Removal In fact, Ji Wen Shi remained in this country illegally for several years, marrying another Chinese national in 1999 and fathering his first child, a son, in 2000. In May 2001, while his wife was pregnant with the couple’s second son, Ji Wen Shi moved to reopen his removal proceedings, attributing his 1993 absence to getting lost on the way to the immigration court as the result of taking the wrong bus. Because the agency granted the motion, we have no reason to consider Ji Wen Shi’s eight-year delay in proffering this explanation. We note only that, upon reopening, Ji Wen Shi applied for asylum, withholding of removal, and CAT relief based on a purported fear that, if he and his wife were to return to China, one or the other would be forcibly sterilized for having violated the country’s one-child policy. In addition, Ji Wen Shi claimed that he feared that he would be jailed, beaten, and tortured upon return to China because he had left the country without authorization. Finding Ji Wen Shi to have testified credibly, the IJ concluded that petitioner had established that he had a well-founded fear of being forcibly sterilized on return to China and granted him asylum. See In re Ji Wen Shi, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ] (Immig. Ct. N.Y. City May 16, 2003). c. Reversal of the Grant of Relief On appeal to the BIA, the government argued that, as a matter of law, Ji Wen Shi did not fit within the statutory definition of a “refugee” because he had not been subjected to any coercive measures and his fear of future mistreatment was merely speculative. In reversing the IJ’s grant of relief from removal, the BIA did not attempt to resolve the government’s legal challenge categorically. Instead, focusing on the record evidence developed in the particular case, the BIA ruled that, even if Ji Wen Shi had demonstrated a credible subjective fear of future sterilization, he had failed to adduce evidence demonstrating that his fear was objectively reasonable. See In re Ji Wen Shi, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ] (B.I.A. Sept. 14, 2004). The BIA particularly noted the lack of evidence of any national Chinese policy regarding the treatment of parents of foreign-born children. To the extent Ji Wen Shi attempted to fill this gap with an affidavit from demographer John Shields Aird indicating that persons returning to China from abroad with unauthorized children can “hardly expect” to be afforded leniency under the nation’s one-child policy, the BIA concluded that this evidence showed only that Ji Wen Shi may face “sanctions and penalties” upon return to China, not that those penalties would rise to the level of persecution. Id. at 2. The BIA further determined that the possibility of Ji Wen Shi and his wife having another child was too speculative to warrant relief from removal. See id. As to Ji Wen Shi’s assertion that he feared incarceration in light of his illegal departure from China, the BIA concluded that petitioner had failed to demonstrate that any punishments imposed would, in fact, amount to torture under the CAT, or be based on any of the enumerated protected grounds under the INA. See id. at 1-2. d.Stipulated Remand from the Petition for Review Ji Wen Shi petitioned this court for review but, in January 2006, before the case was heard, the parties stipulated to a remand to allow the BIA (1) to address evidence accompanying the Aird affidavit, (2) to explain further its conclusion that Ji Wen Shi had not demonstrated an objectively reasonable fear of forced sterilization if returned to China, and (3) to consider Ji Wen Shi’s claim in light of this court’s recent decision in Jian Xing Huang v. INS, 421 F.3d 125. 3. Show Yung Guo a.The Agency Proceedings Resulting in an Order of Removal Show Yung Guo, another native of Chan-gle City in Fujian Province, attempted to enter the United States illegally in October 1992. In her initial airport interview, she stated that she had two children and feared forced sterilization were she to return to China. In March 1993, however, she applied for asylum and relief from removal on the ground that she feared forced sterilization in China based on her violation of that country’s one-child policy because she had given birth to one child in China and wished to have more children with her husband. By the time Show Yung Guo testified at a merits hearing in January 1996, she could point to the birth of another child in the United States as further support for her claim, and testified she had a total of three children, one of whom she had adopted in China. Further, Show Yung Guo testified to past persecution in China in the form of mandatory IUD implants, despite adverse health effects, and a forced abortion and threatened sterilization. Identifying numerous inconsistencies among Show Yung Guo’s airport interview, her asylum application, and her hearing testimony, and taking note of her unconvincing demeanor, the IJ found petitioner not credible except to the extent she had demonstrated that she had given birth to one child in China and one in the United States. See In re Show Yung Guo, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ], at 7-9 (Immig. Ct. N.Y. City Jan. 25, 1996). Finding no credible evidence of past persecution in China, the IJ concluded that Show Yung Guo had not demonstrated a well-founded fear of future forced sterilization on removal to that country because she offered no evidence that the birth of a second child in the United States would be deemed a violation of Chinese policy. See id. at 10-11. Accordingly, the IJ ordered removal. The BIA upheld this ruling on direct appeal, see In re Show Yung Guo, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ] (B.I.A. Aug. 21, 1997), and Show Yung Guo did not petition this court for review. b. First Motion to Reopen In June 1999, Show Yung Guo moved the BIA to reopen her removal proceedings, indicating that she wished to apply for CAT relief. Reiterating her claim that she had a total of three children, Show Yung Guo asserted that her past experiences with Chinese family planning authorities convinced her that she would be forcibly sterilized if returned to her native country. The BIA denied the motion in June 2002, noting that Show Yung Guo had not challenged the agency’s prior adverse credibility determination, much less explained the record inconsistencies informing that determination. See In re Show Yung Guo, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ] (B.I.A. June 11, 2002). Her failure credibly to demonstrate past persecution or a well-founded fear of future persecution thus not only defeated her INA claims for asylum and withholding of removal, but also precluded her from showing the likelihood of future torture necessary to secure CAT relief. See id. at 2. c. Second Motion to Reopen In September 2003, Show Yung Guo again moved to reopen, this time claiming changed country conditions with respect to the enforcement of China’s population control policies against nationals returning from abroad. In support, petitioner presented two documents issued by Changle City and Fujian Province family planning authorities that responded to an inquiry about the application of population policy limits to an individual named Zheng Yu He, whose wife had given birth to a second child while traveling in the United States. Both authorities indicated that population limits were enforceable against Chinese nationals who violated family planning regulations while abroad unless the national had acquired legal permanent residence or three years’ legal temporary residence in the foreign country. See May 22, 2003 Administrative Opinion On Sanctions Against Family-Planning Violations, issued by the Changle City Family-Planning Administration (“2003 Changle City Administrative Opinion”) ¶ 2; 2003 Administrative Decision on Request for Directive from Fuzhou City Administration on Family-Planning in Connection with Birth of a Second Child by Zheng Yu He of Changle City Municipal Bureau of Construction and His Spouse in USA, issued by the Fujian Province Department of Family-Planning Administration (“2003 Fujian Province Administrative Decision”) ¶2. While these two documents did not reference any particular enforcement method that might apply in the circumstances at issue, Show Yung Guo offered a third document indicating that sterilization was “mandatory” in Changle City upon the birth of a second child. See Q & A for Changle City Family-Planning Information Handbook (July 1999) (“1999 Q & A Handbook”) ¶ 16. The BIA summarily denied Show Yung Guo’s second motion to reopen, finding that the documents at issue were “new” but insufficient to show the “changed circumstances” required by the applicable regulation. In re Show Yung Guo, No. [ A XX XXX XXX ] (B.I.A. Jan. 22, 2004); see 8 C.F.R. § 1003.2(c)(3)(ii). d. Proceedings in this Court On Show Yung Guo’s petition for review of the denials of her motions to reopen, this court ruled that the BIA had acted within its discretion in denying the first motion because petitioner had failed to support her proposed CAT claim with any “additional evidence beyond the story deemed false in the asylum hearing.” Shou Yung Guo v. Gonzales, 463 F.3d at 114. At the same time, however, we identified error in the BIA’s assessment of the evidence Show Yung Guo marshaled in support of her second motion. Id. at 115. We noted first that the proffered official documents were obviously “not available” at the time of petitioner’s removal hearing because they all post-dated those proceedings. Id. We further characterized the documents as “unquestionably” material to the issue of whether conditions in China had changed to expose returning Chinese nationals with two children to forced sterilization. Id. Concluding that “[i]t is not apparent to us that the BIA ever really paid any attention to the documents,” we remanded the case to the BIA with directions “to consider Guo’s evidence of changed circumstances” and to determine “whether, in light of any such eircum-stances, she can establish a well-founded fear of persecution.” Id. B. The Challenged Precedential Decisions With this background to how the BIA came to afford each of these three cases further review, we summarize the challenged precedential decisions. 1. Jian Hui Shao a. The Need for Case-by-Case Analysis to Identify Aliens Who Demonstrate a Wellr-Founded Fear of Future Persecution Based on the Birth of More than One Child On June 7, 2007, a three-member panel of the BIA addressed the question posed by this court in its remand order: is “having two children in China ... sufficient grounds for a well-founded fear of persecution”? Jian Hui Shao v. BIA, 465 F.3d at 501. The BIA determined that the question admitted no categorical answer; it could be resolved only on a case-by-ease basis. [A]n alien who has established that he or she has had two children in China may qualify as a refugee if the evidence presented establishes, on a case-by-case basis, that the births violated family planning policies in that alien’s local province, municipality, or other locally-defined area, and that current local family planning enforcement efforts would give rise to a well-founded fear of perse- ' cution because of the violation. In re J-H-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. at 197-98 (emphasis added). The response, which presumes an alien’s demonstration of a genuine subjective fear of future persecution, focuses on the showing necessary to demonstrate that such a fear is sufficiently objectively reasonable to allow the alien to claim refugee status. The BIA concluded that the objective reasonableness of such a fear could be best determined by reviewing the record evidence in three steps. The first step, or “starting point for determining whether there is objective evidence supporting this fear [of future persecution,] is proof of the details of the family planning policy relevant to each individual case.” Id. at 198. The BIA explained that this step is necessary because, “[although in general China’s family planning policy has been termed a ‘one child’ policy,” id., “in practice it is apparent that deviations from the general rule of ‘one child’ persist,” id. For example, “certain geographic and ethnic factors” may prompt “exceptions to the ‘one child’ policy.” Id. at 199. Thus, the petitioner first had to “establish! ] the details of the specific ‘policy’ applicable in his or her case.” Id. At the second step of analysis, the agency would consider “whether the facts in the record establish that the alien violated the policy” applicable to his circumstances. Id. By way of illustration, the BIA noted that if, at the first step, an alien established that no exceptions to the “one child” policy applied in the particular case, the second step inquiry reduced to whether the alien had demonstrated that he or she had, in fact, fathered or given birth to “more than one child, in violation of that policy.” Id. This latter burden could be carried by introducing birth certificates or other documents evidencing the children’s births. See id. The BIA specifically noted that, although it identified these first two steps of analysis in a case involving children born in China, the inquiries were especially relevant in cases where the alien seeking relief from removal relied on the birth of children in the United States. See id. Assuming that an alien could satisfy the “policy” and “violation” steps of analysis, a third step required him to “establish that the violation of the family planning policy would be punished in the local area in a way that would give rise to an objective fear of future persecution.” Id. The BIA explained that this was necessary because “enforcement of the [one-child] policy varies greatly” in China, “depending on locality.” Id. at 200. The BIA further noted that while “incentives and pressure” were used to achieve compliance with birth control limitations, id. at 200, national policy proscribed the use of physical force, id. at 203. Thus, it was an alien’s burden to adduce some evidence showing “that he or she personally faces a well-founded fear of persecution — generally, forced abortion or sterilization,” id. at 200 (emphasis added), or economic sanctions so “severe” as to “rise to the level of persecution,” id. at 200-01 (noting that determination of when economic sanctions are so severe as to constitute persecution is issue best “addressed on a case-by-case basis” (citing Chian Shan Liao v. U.S. Dep’t of Justice, 293 F.3d 61, 67, 70 (2d Cir.2002))). Having explained its reasoning, the BIA summarized its response to the remand’s legal query as follows: In sum, the question whether the birth of two children in China gives rise to a well-founded fear of persecution depends on the facts of each case, including, in particular, the details of local family planning policies, proof that an alien violated such policies, and evidence that local enforcement efforts against the violation will rise to the level of persecution. Evidence bearing on all of these factors must, taken together, establish that a reasonable person in the respondent’s circumstances would fear persecution if he returned to his home country. Id. at 201 (citing, inter alia, INS v. Cardoza-Fonseca, 480 U.S. 421, 107 S.Ct. 1207, 94 L.Ed.2d 434 (1987)). b. Jian Hui Shao’s Failure to Demonstrate an Objective Fear of Future Persecution Based on the Birth of Two Children in China Applying these principles to Jian Hui Shao’s claim, the BIA determined that the record did not permit reliable resolution of the first two steps of analysis. Evidence indicated that where, as in petitioner’s case, a couple’s first child is a girl, Chinese family planning policies sometimes permitted the couple to have a second child. Because Jian Hui Shao had failed to testify credibly as to the circumstances surrounding the birth of his second child, the agency could not determine whether he had ever sought such permission or whether local authorities would, in fact, have viewed his wife’s second pregnancy as a violation of family-planning policies. See id. at 202. Even if the “policy” and “violation” steps of analysis were resolved in Jian Hui Shao’s favor, however, the BIA concluded that his claim for relief failed at the final “enforcement” step of analysis because the record did not contain “persuasive evidence that this birth [of a second child] would trigger enforcement activity in Fujian Province” amounting to persecution. Id. In reaching this conclusion, the BIA pointed to State Department Country Profiles reporting on the unevenness and laxity of enforcement of the one-child policy both in Fujian Province and in China. Id. at 200, 202-03 (citing 1998 Profile at 21, 28; 2007 Profile ¶ 87). While acknowledging that, in the State Department’s 2006 Country Report for China, reference was made to unattributed “reports” of forced sterilization in Fujian Province, see id. at 200, 202 (citing 2006 Country Report § lffl), the BIA decided that such reports were insufficient to establish the objective reasonableness of Jian Hui Shao’s professed fear of sterilization in light of evidence that the use of force was prohibited by Chinese law and State Department interviews with visa applicants from Fujian Province in 2006 “yielded ‘no evidence’ of forced abortions.” Id. at 203 (quoting 2007 Profile ¶ 99). Although the documents prompting remand in Shou Yung Guo v. Gonzales, 463 F.3d at 113, see supra at [146-47], had not been part of the record at Jian Hui Shao’s removal proceedings, the BIA nevertheless considered the possibility that this evidence might support an “enforcement” finding favorable to petitioner at the third step of analysis. The BIA concluded that it did not because, although one document referenced mandatory sterilization in Changle City after the birth of a second child, nothing in the record indicated that the mandate was carried out through proscribed forced sterilization as opposed to China’s “well-documented system of offering incentives to obtain compliance with birth control limits.” In re J-H-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. at 203 (noting that “[o]n balance, the evidence suggests that physical coercion to achieve compliance with family planning goals is uncommon and unsanctioned by China’s national laws, and that the overall policy is much more heavily reliant on incentives and economically-based penalties”). The BIA thus concluded that, “[a]s a whole, the record lacks persuasive evidence to prove that the mere birth of two children in China would trigger family planning enforcement efforts that would rise to the level of persecution under the circumstances of this case.” Id. Accordingly, it dismissed Jian Hui Shao’s petition for relief from removal, ruling that he had failed to carry his burden to demonstrate a well-founded fear of persecution in China based simply on the birth of his two children in that country. 2. Ji Wen Shi On the same day that the BIA concluded that Jian Hui Shao was not entitled to relief from removal based on his having fathered two children in China, another BIA panel determined that Ji Wen Shi was not entitled to such relief based on the birth of his two children in the United States. Assuming the genuineness of Ji Wen Shi’s subjective fear of forced sterilization if returned to China, the BIA indicated that the determinative question was whether petitioner had “met his burden of demonstrating an objectively reasonable fear of persecution.” In re J-W-S- 24 I. & N. Dec. at 188. Although the J-W-S panel did not specifically reference the three-part analysis identified in J-H-S-, it appears to have concluded that Ji Wen Shi had carried his burden at the “policy” and “violation” steps and, thus, focused its attention almost exclusively on the question of whether petitioner had demonstrated a reasonable possibility of enforcement amounting to persecution on return to China. In deciding this question, the BIA noted that both parties had submitted numerous documents on remand pertaining to China’s national “one-child” policy and the delegation of the policy’s enforcement from the national government to provincial and local authorities. To the extent these documents included State Department Country Reports and Profiles, the BIA took administrative notice of the more recent versions of these documents issued since the parties’ submissions. As in J-H-S-the BIA determined that this record, viewed in its entirety, revealed a “wide variation in the manner and strictness with which the ‘one-child’ policy is enforced in the various provinces.” Id. at 189. Whether Ji Wen Shi’s claimed fear of persecution was considered as to China generally or Fujian Province in particular, the panel concluded that the record did not indicate that such a fear was objectively reasonable. Focusing first on whether the evidence demonstrated “that the Chinese Government has a national policy of requiring forced sterilization of parents who return with a second child born outside of China,” the BIA concluded that it did not. Id. at 192. In so ruling, the BIA decided to accord greater weight to State Department reports than to the Aird affidavits referenced in the remand stipulation. While the Aird affidavits stated that Chinese nationals returning with more than one child could expect to face the same punishment as their countrymen who violated the one-child policy in China, the BIA observed that the affidavits and the attached documents on which they relied pointed to “no incidents of forced sterilization of parents who return to China with children born abroad.” Id. at 190. It deemed the omission significant because the State Department’s China Profile for 2005 stated that American diplomats in China were unaware of any such sterilizations. See id. at 191 (citing 2005 Profile at 24). Even assuming identical penalties for population control violations occurring outside and within China, the BIA concluded that Ji Wen Shi had not convincingly demonstrated an objectively reasonable fear of forced sterilization. While noting that the 2006 Country Report stated that the “incentives and pressure” used to achieve compliance with China’s family-planning policies “ ‘sometimes left women with little practical choice but to undergo abortion or sterilization,’ ” id. at 190, the BIA declined to infer that the referenced pressure included “physical or mental coercion” because the “context” for the quoted observation was a discussion of various “economic” rewards and penalties, id. (emphasis in original). The BIA acknowledged “isolated reports of forced sterilization in the documents of record.” Id. at 190; see also id. at 193 n. 8, 194 (citing 2002 Country Report § 1(f); 2006 Country Report § 1(f)). Nevertheless, it determined that isolated reports were insufficient to “indicate that the applicant would be singled out for this treatment upon his return to China,” nor did they demonstrate a “pattern or practice of persecution that would provide the applicant a basis for a well-founded fear of persecution in China on account of the birth of two children in the United States while he was outside of China for nearly 15 years.” Id. at 190. Rather, the BIA concluded that the enforcement action that a returning Chinese national might reasonably fear in such circumstances consisted of economic fines and penalties. See id. at 191 (and evidence cited therein). Noting that Ji Wen Shi had not argued that he faced stricter enforcement action in his native Fujian Province, the BIA nevertheless considered that possibility in light of evidence pertaining to that province and particularly to Changle City. The BIA focused first on two documents that were also included in the record in Shou Yung Guo: the 2003 Changle City Administrative Opinion and the 2003 Fujian Province Administrative Decision. These documents indicated that Chinese citizens who violated their country’s population limits abroad were subject to the same punishments as citizens whose violations occurred in China. Nevertheless, the BIA observed that “[njeither document referred] to sterilization, much less forced sterilization,” as a possible punishment. Id. at 192. To the extent petitioner urged such an inference from an additional Chan-gle City document, referencing mandated sterilization after the birth of a second child, see Changle City Family Planning Policy Leading Team, Opinions in Administering the Family Planning Subjects with Early Marriage and Out of Plan Pregnancy (June 27, 1995) (“1995 Changle City Opinion”), the BIA was not persuaded because “central government policy prohibits physical coercion to compel persons to submit to family planning enforcement,” id. at 193, and no evidence had been adduced indicating that Changle City officials nevertheless “implemented” the sterilization mandate “through physical force or other means that would amount to persecution,” id. at 192. As in J-H-S-, the BIA cited to State Department reports indicating that family-planning enforcement in Fujian Province was generally “lax” and “uneven,” id. at 193, at the same time that it acknowledged the Country Reports’ references to “reports” of forced sterilization of women in Fujian Province, id. at 193 n. 8, 194 (citing 2002 Country Report § 1(f); 2006 Country Report § 1(f)). Again, the BIA accorded the unspecified reports little weight in light of other evidence indicating that visa applicants from Fujian Province in 2006 had made no mention of forcible abortions and that economic penalties were the general means of enforcement. See id. at 194. Finding that the evidence “[a]t most ... suggests that the applicant and his wife may face ‘sanctions and penalties’ upon returning to China because of the births of their United States citizen children” not “ris[ing] to the level of persecution,” the BIA determined that Ji Wen Shi had not persuasively demonstrated that his fear of forced sterilization was objectively reasonable. Id. Accordingly, the BIA ruled that Ji Wen Shi had failed to carry his burden of proof in seeking relief from removal. 3. Show Yung Guo On August 2, 2007, approximately two months after its decisions in J-H-S- and J-W-S-, the BIA issued its precedential opinion declining to reopen Show Yung Guo’s removal proceedings. See In re S-Y-G-, 24 I. & N. Dec. 247. In so ruling, the BIA considered not only the three documents referenced in this court’s remand order, but additional materials submitted by the parties. See id. at 248-49 n. 1 (identifying documents). The BIA further considered Show Yung Guo’s argument urging reopening pending resolution of an asylee relative petition filed on her behalf by her husband. Adapting the evidentiary framework articulated in In re J-H-S- to a motion to reopen based on changed country conditions, the BIA stated that an alien “may successfully reopen his or her asylum case if, on a case-by-case analysis, the genuine, authentic, and objectively reasonable evidence proves that (1) a relevant change in country conditions occurred, (2) the applicant has violated family planning policy as established in that alien’s local province, municipality, or other relevant area, and (3) the violation would be punished in a way that would give rise to a well-founded fear of persecution.” Id. at 251 (footnote omitted) (citing In re J-H-S- 24 I. & N. Dec. 196). Mindful that Show Yung Guo’s failure to appeal the 1997 BIA dismissal of her asylum claim meant that “the Immigration Judge’s credibility determination remain[ed] the law of the case,” id. at 250, the BIA construed the remand issue as limited to the following question: had Show Yung Guo “produced enough evidence to show changed country conditions in China evidencing both that her two children (a son born in 1988 in China and a daughter born in 1995 in the United States) would be viewed as exceeding birth control limits in her local province, and that the sanctions applicable for such a violation would rise to the level of persecution.” Id. at 251. Preliminary to reviewing the record evidence relevant to this question, the BIA noted (1) the law’s general inclination to view motions to reopen with disfavor, see id. at 252 (citing INS v. Doherty, 502 U.S. 314, 323, 112 S.Ct. 719, 116 L.Ed.2d 823 (1992)); (2) the Board’s “broad discretion over motions to reopen,” id.; (3) its disinclination to exercise that discretion favorably in the case of an alien, such as petitioner, “who was previously found to have offered incredible testimony to gain immigration benefits,” id. at 251; and (4) the movant’s burden, in any event, to “ ‘establish prima facie eligibility for asylum, i.e., a realistic chance that [s]he will be able to establish eligibility,’ ” id. (alteration in original) (internal quotation marks omitted) (quoting Poradisova v. Gonzales, 420 F.3d 70, 78 (2d Cir.2005)). Focusing on the last point, the BIA concluded that the Changle City and Fujian Province documents relating to Zheng Yu He did not convincingly demonstrate that Fujian authorities would view the birth of Show Yung Guo’s second child in the United States as a violation of Chinese law. First, there was a longer interval between the births of Show Yung Guo’s children (“more than 7 years”) than between the births of Zheng Yu He’s children (5 /£ years), a potentially relevant factor because “provincial law indicates that married couples may apply to have a second child within certain time frames that are being increasingly relaxed.” Id. at 256 (citing 2005 Profile at 21). Further, the sanctions referenced in the Changle City and Fujian Province documents were to be levied pursuant to a directive governing penalties for those who, like Zheng Yu He, were government employees and Communist Party members. Show Yung Guo did not claim to be either. See id. Even if these documents had allowed Show Yung Guo to carry her burden at the violation step of analysis, the BIA concluded that they did not provide “any basis” for petitioner “fearing sanctions that would rise to the level of persecution.” Id. To the extent these documents referenced “sanctions” generally, the BIA determined that the word was reasonably understood to refer to prescribed “economic ones, as descriptions of those types of sanctions abound in published reports,” rather than to proscribed forcible ones. Id. (noting that in J-H-S- and J-W-S-, the BIA had referenced State Department reports describing sanctions “as involving job loss and demotion, loss of promotions, expulsion from the Communist Party and attendant loss of employment, and destruction of property”). The BIA reached the same conclusion with respect to the Fujian Province Q & A Handbook. The BIA was not convinced that the document’s reference to mandatory sterilizations on the birth of a second child reflected any change in policy. See id. at 257. In addition, the BIA observed that the Q & A Handbook gave no indication “that forcible sterilizations are mandated in Fujian Province after the birth of a second child.” Id. (emphasis in original). The BIA viewed the “distinction” as “key” because, “under the relevant portions of the Act, refugee protection extends only to instances of ‘forced’ abortions or sterilizations,” id. (citing 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42)), and “documentation on family planning enforcement indicates that efforts are aimed primarily at encouraging compliance with birth limits through incentives, education, and other [non-forcible] methods,” id. (citing Population and Family Planning Law (P.R.C.) (promulgated by the Standing Comm. Nat’l People’s Cong., Dec. 29, 2001, effective Sept. 1, 2002), reprinted in 2005 Profile app. A at 38-46). As in J-H-S- and J-W-S-, the BIA acknowledged unattributed reports of occasional forced sterilizations. It concluded that “the mere mention of such incidents, without details as to when, where, and how often this occurred, does not, on this record, indicate that it is widespread enough to find that the applicant has met her burden of submitting sufficient evidence to warrant reopening of the proceedings.” Id. at 256. II. Discussion A. Resolving Petitioners’ Arguments by Reference to Their Asylum Claims Before discussing the various challenges petitioners raise to the BIA’s precedential decisions in their cases, we note that petitioners frame those arguments, in the first instance, by reference to their claims for asylum. This makes sense because, to secure asylum, petitioners need demonstrate only that their professed fear of future persecution in China in the form of forced sterilization is “well founded,” see 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42), a lighter burden of proof than showing that such persecution is “more likely than not,” the standard necessary to secure withholding of removal or CAT relief. See INS v. Cardoza-Fonseca, 480 U.S. at 440, 107 S.Ct. 1207; accord Yi Long Yang v. Gonzales, 478 F.3d 133, 141 (2d Cir.2007); see also 8 C.F.R. § 208.16(b)(2) (providing that alien seeking withholding of removal must establish that it is more likely than not that his life or freedom would be threatened in his country of origin on one of specified protected grounds); id. § 208.16(c)(2) (requiring alien seeking CAT relief to show it is more likely than not that he would be tortured on removal). Thus, if the BIA properly concluded that petitioners each failed to demonstrate a well-founded fear of future persecution, it follows that they cannot carry the heavier burden necessary to secure withholding of removal or CAT relief. Because we identify no error in the BIA’s asylum ruling, we need not discuss these other forms of relief from removal. B. The Unchallenged Issue of Statutory Interpretation To secure asylum, an alien must demonstrate that he qualifies as a “refugee” within the meaning of the INA because he has suffered past persecution on account of “race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion,” or that he has a well-founded fear of future persecution on such grounds. 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42). Government-ordered forced abortions or sterilizations are statutorily recognized as political persecution. See id. On these petitions for review, no party challenges the BIA’s decision to construe 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42) to recognize the possibility that, on a case-by-case analysis, some Chinese nationals with two or more children might be able to demonstrate a well-founded fear of future forced sterilization based on general population control policies without any evidence of past persecution or threats of persecution to themselves as individuals. Having ourselves identified ambiguity in the statutory language as it might apply in such circumstances, see Jian Hui Shao v. BIA, 465 F.3d at 501-02, we now accord Chevron deference to the BIA’s statutory construction, which rejects a categorical application of the “well-founded fear” provision to such claims in favor of case-by-case review. See Chevron U.S.A. Inc. v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc., 467 U.S. 837, 104 S.Ct. 2778, 81 L.Ed.2d 694. The BIA’s construction finds support in INS v. Cardoza-Fonseca, 480 U.S. 421, 107 S.Ct. 1207, 94 L.Ed.2d 434. In that case, the Supreme Court indicated that a “reasonable possibility” of persecution could be sufficient to support a well-founded fear, see id. at 440, 107 S.Ct. 1207, and cited approvingly to a one-in-ten example of persecution to illustrate the sort of “reasonable possibility” that would demonstrate a “well-founded fear,” see id. (“ ‘Let us ... presume that it is known that in the applicant’s country of origin every tenth adult male person is either put to death or sent to some remote labor camp.... In such a case it would be only too apparent that anyone who has managed to escape from the country in question will have a “well-founded fear of being persecuted” upon his eventual return.’” (quoting 1 A. Grahl-Madsen, The Status of Refugees in International Law 180 (1966))). At the same time, however, the Court declined to attempt any further interpretation of the well-founded fear standard, observing that “[t]here is obviously some ambiguity in a term like ‘well-founded fear’ which can only be given concrete meaning through a process of case-by-case adjudication.” Id. at 448, 107 S.Ct. 1207 (citing Chevron in noting that, as to “any gap left, implicitly or explicitly, by Congress, the courts must respect the interpretation of the agency to which Congress has delegated the responsibility for administering the statutory program” (internal quotation marks omitted)). Accordingly, we accept the BIA’s decision to apply case-by-case review to Chinese nationals’ claimed fears of future persecution based on the births of two or more children, and we review in turn its conclusion that none of the three petitioners in these cases convincingly demonstrated that their professed fears were well founded. C. The Challenged Conclusions that No Petitioner Demonstrated an Objectively Reasonable Fear of Future Persecution Each petitioner argues that the BIA erred in concluding that he or she had failed to demonstrate an objectively reasonable fear of future forced sterilization if removed to China. To the extent petitioners challenge the Board’s assessment of competing evidence and its ultimate findings of fact, our review is necessarily deferential. “[W]e will not disturb a factual finding if it is supported by ‘reasonable, substantial, and probative’ evidence in the record when considered as a whole.” Wu Biao Chen v. INS, 344 F.3d 272, 275 (2d Cir.2003) (quoting Diallo v. INS, 232 F.3d 279, 287 (2d Cir.2000)); accord Manzur v. U.S. Dep’t of Homeland Sec., 494 F.3d 281, 289 (2d Cir.2007). Indeed, Congress has specified that “administrative findings of fact are conclusive unless any reasonable adjudicator would be compelled to conclude to the contrary.” 8 U.S.C. § 1252(b)(4)(B). Thus, when a petitioner bears the burden of proof, his failure to adduce evidence can itself constitute the “substantial evidence” necessary to support the agency’s challenged decision. See generally Zhou Yun Zhang v. INS, 386 F.3d 66, 78-79 (2d Cir.2004) (holding that adverse credibility determination by itself can “constitute substantial evidence to support the conclusion that [the petitioner] failed to carry his burden of proof on his persecution claim,” in absence of other corroborative evidence), overruled in part on other grounds by Shi Liang Lin v. U.S. Dep’t of Justice, 494 F.3d 296 (2d Cir.2007) (en banc). Moreover, when a petitioner challenges “the factual findings underlying the immigration court’s determination that [the petitioner] has failed to satisfy his burden of proof’ on the issue of past persecution or a well-founded fear of future persecution, we will not disturb the BIA’s ruling unless we conclude that “no reasonable fact-finder could have failed to find” in favor of petitioner. Wu Biao Chen v. INS, 344 F.3d at 275 (internal quotation marks omitted). That conclusion is not warranted in any of the three cases at issue. 1. Jian Hui Shao In petitioning this court for review of the BIA’s precedential decision in his case, Jian Hui Shao challenges neither the agency’s response to the statutory interpretation question posed on remand by this court, nor the three-step evidentiary framework identified by the BIA as useful to determining when a claimed fear of future sterilization on removal to China is well founded. Further, petitioner raises no objection to the BIA (as opposed to an IJ) weighing the record evidence or making factual determinations in his case. Instead, the singular focus of Jian Hui Shao’s petition is factual. Petitioner argues that the BIA erred in finding that he failed to demonstrate persuasively that (1) his second child’s birth would be viewed as a violation of family planning regulations in Fujian Province, see Jian Hui Shao Br. at 1, and (2) he “would face a reasonable possibility of persecution if removed,” id. at 8. Because we conclude that substantial evidence supports the BIA’s findings and that the record does not compel contrary determinations, we reject Jian Hui Shao’s challenge as without merit. a. Petitioner’s Failure to Adduce Credible Evidence as to the Circumstances of His Wife’s Second Pregnancy Supports the BIA’s Finding that He Failed to Carry His Burden at the Violation Step of Analysis Petitioner submits that, at the violation step of analysis, the BIA erred in noting record evidence of various exceptions to China’s one-child policy without making further inquiry to determine if Jian Hui Shao qualified for any of these exceptions. We are not persuaded. The argument ignores the very point made by the BIA: the burden was on Jian Hui Shao to demonstrate that Chinese officials would view his wife’s second pregnancy after the birth of their first daughter as a violation of family planning policy. Record evidence showed that second pregnancies might be authorized in Fujian Province when a couple’s first child was a girl. See In re J-H-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. at 198-99, 202 (citing 2005 Country Report § 1(f); 2005 Profile at 49; 1998 Profile at 25). Because Jian Hui Shao had failed to testify credibly as to the circumstances surrounding his wife’s second pregnancy, the BIA could not reliably determine whether petitioner had sought or been granted such authorization, a fact relevant to determining whether government officials would view the birth of his second daughter as a violation of Chinese family planning policies. Where a petitioner thus fails to adduce “reliable, specific, objective” evidence establishing the “context and believability” of his claimed fear of persecution, we can hardly conclude that the BIA was compelled to resolve the point in his favor. Ramsameachire v. Ashcroft, 357 F.3d at 178; accord Yi Long Yang v. Gonzales, 478 F.3d at 140-41; see also Jian Xing Huang v. INS, 421 F.3d at 128-29 (holding that BIA did not err in finding that petitioner failed to carry burden of demonstrating well-founded fear of forced sterilization on removal to China based on births of two children in United States, the first being a girl, because in Fujian Province, “a second child is often permitted if the first child is a girl” and “there is no indication that [petitioner] would be subject to forced sterilization for having a second child”). b. At the Enforcement Step of Analysis, Substantial Evidence Supports the BIA’s Finding that Petitioner Failed to Demonstrate a Reasonable Possibility of Forced Sterilization on Removal to China At the enforcement step of analysis, Jian Hui Shao faults the BIA’s finding that he failed to demonstrate a reasonable possibility of forced sterilization on removal to China. We disagree. The BIA acknowledged the evidence most favorable to petitioner on the issue of enforcement, specifically, statements in the 2006 Country Report (a) indicating that methods for enforcing China’s birth limits “sometimes left women with little practical choice but to undergo abortion or sterilization,” In re J-H-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. at 200, and (b) acknowledging “reports” of some women’s “forced sterilization,” id. at 202; see 2006 Country Report § 1(f). It proceeded to explain by reference to substantial record evidence why it was not persuaded that Jian Hui Shao faced a reasonable possibility of such persecution if removed to China. The record does not compel a contrary conclusion. The BIA explained that it declined to infer a reasonable possibility of petitioner’s forced sterilization from the above-quoted first statement because its “context” was a discussion of the various economic rewards and penalties used by Chinese authorities to secure compliance with population limits. Id. at 200. The BIA observed that its construction of the statement found further support in the State Department’s 2007 Profile for China, which, while acknowledging that “ ‘public and other pressure’ is used in Fujian Province to encourage compliance with birth planning laws,” specifically noted that American officials in the province “ ‘did not find any cases of physical force employed in connection with abortion or sterilization.’ ” Id. (quoting 2007 Profile ¶ 99). In declining to infer a reasonable possibility of petitioner’s forced sterilization from unspecified “reports” of such occasional abuse, the BIA relied on evidence in State Department reports indicating that (1) the use of physical coercion to enforce family planning policies was, in fact, officially proscribed in China, id. at 202; see 2007 Profile ¶ 9 1; (2) the enforcement of family planning policies in Fujian Province was generally “ ‘lax’ ” and “ ‘uneven,’ ” In re J-H-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. at 202 (quoting 1998 Profile at 21, 26); and (3) 2006 visa applications from Fujian Province “yielded ‘no evidence’ of forced abortions,” see id. at 203 (quoting 2007 Profile ¶ 99). In Jian Xing Huang v. INS, we ruled that the BIA was “entitled to rely” on State Department reports of country conditions provided it “did not overlook any contradictory evidence directly presented by the petitioner.” 421 F.3d at 129. While Jian Hui Shao does not charge the BIA with overlooking any relevant evidence, he nevertheless raises various challenges to the weight the Board assigned the competing evidence. First, he asserts that the BIA could not rely on omissions in the visa applications without explaining why these documents constituted probative evidence on the issue of forced sterilization. The point is without merit, particularly in light of the government’s unchallenged assertion that, because visa applicants are asked to state all grounds on which they seek entry into the United States, it would be reasonable to expect that, if forcible means — abortions or sterilization — were being used by local authorities to enforce family planning policies, applicants for legal entry into the United States would have as much of an incentive to report such acts of persecution, or their fear thereof, as Chinese nationals who entered this country illegally. Presented with unattributed “reports” of forced sterilization that lacked any specificity as to number or circumstance, the BIA acted well within its fact-finding discretion in considering whether any other evidence, including visa applications, shed light on the reasonable possibility of petitioner facing such persecution on removal to China. To the extent other evidence failed to support that possibility, the BIA reasonably determined that the unattributed “reports” did not, by themselves, persuasively demonstrate a reasonable possibility that Jian Hui Shao would face such future persecution. See Ramsameachire v. Ashcroft, 357 F.3d at 178 (noting need for “reliable, specific, objective” evidence to demonstrate objectively reasonable fear of future persecution) (internal quotation marks omitted); accord Yi Long Yang v. Gonzales, 478 F.3d at 140-41; see also Jian Xing Huang v. INS, 421 F.3d at 129 (emphasizing need for “solid” evidence to demonstrate that professed fear of persecution was objectively reasonable and not merely “speculative”). We cannot conclude that the reports compelled a contrary finding. Jian Hui Shao’s second argument faults the BIA for relying on an outdated statement in the 1998 Profile to support a conclusion that Fujian Province’s enforcement procedures are generally “lax” and “uneven.” The point merits little discussion because the BIA also cited the 2007 Profile, which reiterates the “uneven” enforcement characterization. See 2007 Profile ¶ 87. In any event, Jian Hui Shao points to no contrary evidence, much less evidence of forced sterilizations to persons similarly situated to himself. Finally, Jian Hui Shao submits that the BIA erred in assessing his fear of forced sterilization by reference only to possible physical coercion without considering the possibility that “[s]evere economic pressures” might be applied to the same effect. Jian Hui Shao Br. at 9-10. The argument mischaracterizes the BIA’s decision, which explicitly acknowledges that severe economic penalties might serve as a basis for a well-founded fear of future persecution, but finds no evidence of penalties rising to that level. See In re J-H-S-, 24 I. & N. Dec. at 200 (noting that “[enforcement efforts resulting in moderate economic impact would not, in general, prove a well-founded fear of future persecution”). To the extent Jian Hui Shao points us to the 2006 Country Report as evidence that China has used economic penalties to put “pressures on couples with two or more children” that have “often ‘left [them] with little practical choice but to undergo abortion or sterilization,’ ” Jian Hui Shao Br. at 10 (alteration in original) (quoting 2006 Country Report § 1(f)), we are not persuaded that this statement constituted “reliable, specific, objective” evidence compelling the well-founded fear finding urged by petitioner, Ramsameachire v. Ashcroft, 357 F.3d at 178. First, the statement, as it appears in the Country Report, identifies “women,” not “couples,” as the persons who face the noted practical dilemma. 2006 Country Report § 1(f). Second, the Country Report states that the problem arises “sometimes.” Id. Jian Hui Shao offered no evidence indicating that “sometimes” arose with sufficient frequency to establish a reasonable possibility of economic pressures being used to compel his sterilization on return to China. See INS v. Cardoza-Fonseca, 480 U.S. at 431, 107 S.Ct. 1207. Finally, to the extent it is “forced” sterilizations that are recognized as a form of political persecution, 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42), it is hardly apparent that the “pressures” giving rise to the reported dilemma would force persons generally, or Jian Hui Shao in particular, to submit to sterilization. See 2006 Country Report § 1(f) (detailing penalties “such as job loss or demotion, loss of promotion opportunity, expulsion from the party (membership in which was an unofficial requirement for certain jobs), and other administrative punishments, including in some cases the destruction of property”). Thus, assuming that, in some cas