Full opinion text
OPINION SMITH, Circuit Judge, with whom McKEE, Chief Judge, SLOVITER, SCIRICA, RENDELL, AMBRO, FUENTES, FISHER, and VANASKIE, Circuit Judges join. Once again, we are asked to find the balance between a student’s right to free speech and a school’s need to control its educational environment. In this case, two middle-school students purchased bracelets bearing the slogan “I ¥ boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” as part of a nationally recognized breast-cancer-awareness campaign. The Easton Area School District banned the bracelets, relying on its authority under Bethel School District No. m v. Fraser, 478 U.S. 675, 106 S.Ct. 3159, 92 L.Ed.2d 549 (1986), to restrict vulgar, lewd, profane, or plainly offensive speech, and its authority under Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District, 393 U.S. 503, 89 S.Ct. 733, 21 L.Ed.2d 731 (1969), to restrict speech that is reasonably expected to substantially disrupt the school. The District Court held that the ban violated the students’ rights to free speech and issued a preliminary injunction against the ban. We agree with the District Court that neither Fraser nor Tinker can sustain the bracelet ban. The scope of a school’s authority to restrict lewd, vulgar, profane, or plainly offensive speech under Fraser is a novel question left open by the Supreme Court, and one which we must now resolve. We hold that Fraser, as modified by the Supreme Court’s later reasoning in Morse v. Frederick, 551 U.S. 393, 127 S.Ct. 2618, 168 L.Ed.2d 290 (2007), sets up the following framework: (1) plainly lewd speech, which offends for the same reasons obscenity offends, may be categorically restricted regardless of whether it comments on political or social issues, (2) speech that does not rise to the level of plainly lewd but that a reasonable observer could interpret as lewd may be categorically restricted as long as it cannot plausibly be interpreted as commenting on political or social issues, and (3) speech that does not rise to the level of plainly lewd and that could plausibly be interpreted as commenting on political or social issues may not be categorically restricted. Because the bracelets here are not plainly lewd and because they comment on a social issue, they may not be categorically banned under Fraser. The School District has also failed to show that the bracelets threatened to substantially disrupt the school under Tinker. We will therefore affirm the District Court. I. A. Factual background As a “leading youth focused global breast cancer organization,” the Keep A Breast Foundation tries to educate thirteen- to thirty-year-old women about breast cancer. Br. of Amicus Curiae KABF at 13. To that end, it often partners with other merchants to co-brand products that raise awareness. And because it believes that young women’s “negative body image[s]” seriously inhibit their awareness of breast cancer, the Foundation’s products often “seek[ ] to reduce the stigma by speaking to young people in a voice they can relate to.” Id. at 14-15. If young women see such awareness projects and products as cool and trendy, the thinking goes, then they will be more willing to talk about breast cancer openly. To “start a conversation about that taboo in a light-hearted way” and to break down inhibitions keeping young women from performing self-examinations, the Foundation began its “I ¥ Boobies!” initiative. Id. at 20-21. Part of the campaign included selling silicone bracelets of assorted colors emblazoned with “I ¥ Boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” and “check y¥urself! (KEEP A BREAST).” Id. at 21-22. The Foundation’s website address (www.keep-a-breast.org) and motto (“art. education, awareness, action.”) appear on the inside of the bracelet. Id. As intended, the “I ¥ Boobies” initiative was a hit with young women, quickly becoming one of the Foundation’s “most successful and high profile educational campaigns.” Id. at 20-21. Two of the young women drawn to the bracelets were middle-school students B.H. and K.M. They purchased the bracelets with their mothers before the 2010-2011 school year—B.H. because she saw “a lot of [her] friends wearing” the bracelets and wanted to learn about them, and K.M. because of the bracelet’s popularity and awareness message. App. 72, 92,106, 442. But the bracelets were more than just a new fashion trend. K.M.’s purchase prompted her to become educated about breast cancer in young women. The girls wore their bracelets both to commemorate friends and relatives who had suffered from breast cancer and to promote awareness among their friends. Indeed, their bracelets started conversations about breast cancer and did so far more effectively than the more-traditional pink ribbon. App. 73-74. That made sense to B.H., who observed that “no one really notices” the pink ribbon, whereas the “bracelets are new and ... more appealing to teenagers.” App. 74. B.H., K.M., and three other students wore the “I V boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” bracelets at Easton Area Middle School during the 20102011 school year. A few teachers, after observing the students wear the bracelets every day for several weeks, considered whether they should take action. The teachers’ responses varied: One found the bracelets offensive because they trivialized breast cancer. Others feared that the bracelets might lead to offensive comments or invite inappropriate touching. But school administrators also believed that middle-school boys did not need the bracelets as an excuse to make sexual statements or to engage in inappropriate touching. See, e.g., Viglianti Test., App. 196, 198 (testifying that such incidents “happened before the bracelets” and were “going to happen after the bracelets” because “sexual curiosity between boys and girls in the middle school is ... a natural and continuing thing”). In mid- to late September, four or five teachers asked the eighth-grade assistant principal, Amy Braxmeier, whether they should require students to remove the bracelets. The seventh-grade assistant principal, Anthony Viglianti, told the teachers that they should ask students to remove “wristbands that have the word ‘boobie’ written on them,” App. 343, even though there were no reports that the bracelets had caused any in-school disruptions or inappropriate comments. With Breast Cancer Awareness Month approaching in October, school administrators anticipated that the “I V boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” bracelets might reappear. The school was scheduled to observe Breast Cancer Awareness Month on October 28, so the day before, administrators publicly announced, for the first time, the ban on bracelets containing the word “boobies.” Using the word “boobies” in his announcement, Viglianti notified students of the ban over the public-address system, and a student did the same on the school’s television station. The Middle School still encouraged students to wear the traditional pink, and it provided teachers who donated to Susan G. Komen for the Cure with either a pin bearing the slogan “Passionately Pink for the Cure” or a T-shirt reading “Real Rovers Wear Pink.” Later that day, a school security guard noticed B.H. wearing an “I V boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” bracelet and ordered her to remove it. B.H. refused. After meeting with Braxmeier, B.H. relented, removed her bracelet, and returned to lunch. No disruption occurred at any time that day. The following day, B.H. and K.M. each wore their “I V boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” bracelets to observe the Middle School’s Breast Cancer Awareness Day. The day was uneventful—until lunchtime. Once in the cafeteria, both girls were instructed by a school security guard to remove their bracelets. Both girls refused. Hearing this encounter, another girl, R.T., stood up and similarly refused to take off her bracelet. Confronted by this act of solidarity, the security guard permitted the girls to finish eating then-lunches before escorting them to Braxmeier’s office. Again, the girls’ actions caused no disruption in the cafeteria, though R.T. told Braxmeier that one boy had immaturely commented either that he also “love[d] boobies” or that he “love[d] her boobies.” Braxmeier spoke to all three girls, and R.T. agreed to remove her bracelet. B.H. and K.M. stood firm, however, citing their rights to freedom of speech. The Middle School administrators were having none of it. They punished B.H. and K.M. by giving each of them one and a half days of in-school suspension and by forbidding them from attending the Winter Ball. The administrators notified the girls’ families, explaining only that B.H. and K.M. were being disciplined for “disrespect,” “defiance,” and “disruption.” News of the bracelets quickly reached the rest of the Easton Area School District, which instituted a district-wide ban on the “I V boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” bracelets, effective on November 9, 2010. The only bracelet-related incident reported by school administrators occurred weeks after the district-wide ban: Two girls were talking about their bracelets at lunch when a boy who overheard them interrupted and said something like “I want boobies.” He also made an inappropriate gesture with two red spherical candies. The boy admitted his “rude” comment and was suspended for one day. This was not the first time the Middle School had banned clothing that it found distasteful. Indeed, the School District’s dress-code policy prohibits “clothing imprinted with nudity, vulgarity, obscenity, profanity, and double entendre pictures or slogans.” Under the policy, seventh-grade students at the Middle School have been asked to remove clothing promoting Hooters and Big Pecker’s Bar & Grill, as well as clothing bearing the phrase “Save the ta-tas” (another breast-cancer-awareness slogan). Typically, students are disciplined only if they actually refuse to remove the offending apparel when asked to do so. B. Procedural history Through their mothers, B.H. and K.M. sued the School District under 42 U.S.C. § 1983. Compl., ECF No. 1 ¶ 3, B.H. v. Easton Area Sch. Dist., No. 5:10-CV-06283-MAM (E.D.Pa. Nov. 15, 2010). They sought a temporary restraining order allowing them to attend the Winter Ball and a preliminary injunction against the bracelet ban. B.H. v. Easton Area Sch. Dist., 827 F.Supp.2d 392, 394 (E.DJPa. 2011). At the District Court’s urging, the School District reversed course and permitted B.H. and K.M. to attend the Winter Ball while retaining the option to impose a comparable punishment if the bracelet ban was upheld. Id. The District Court accordingly denied the motion for a temporary restraining order. Id. The District Court conducted an evidentiary hearing on the request for a preliminary injunction. It soon became clear that the School District’s rationale for disciplining B.H. and K.M. had shifted. Although B.H.’s and K.M.’s disciplinary letters indicated only that they were being disciplined for “disrespect,” “defiance,” and “disruption,” the School District ultimately based the ban on its dress-code policy together with the bracelets’ alleged sexual innuendo. According to the School District’s witnesses, the Middle School assistant principals had conferred and concluded that the bracelets “conveyed a sexual double entendre” that could be harmful and confusing to students of different physical and sexual developmental levels. Sch. Disk's Br. at 9. And the principals believed that middle-school students, who often have immature views of sex, were particularly likely to interpret the bracelets that way. For its part, the Foundation explained that no one there “ever suggested that the phrase T (Heart) Boobies!’ is meant to be sexy.” App. 150. To that end, the Foundation had denied requests from truck stops, convenience stores, vending machine companies, and pornographers to sell the bracelets. After the evidentiary hearing, the District Court preliminarily enjoined the School District’s bracelet ban. According to the District Court, B.H. and K.M. were likely to succeed on the merits because the bracelets did not contain lewd speech under Fraser and did not threaten to substantially disrupt the school environment under Tinker. The District Court could find no other basis for regulating the student speech at issue. The School District appealed, and the District Court denied its request to stay the injunction pending this appeal. II. Although the District Court’s preliminary injunction is not a final order, we have jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1292(a)(1), which grants appellate jurisdiction over “[ijnterlocutory orders of the district courts ... granting, continuing, modifying, refusing, or dissolving injunctions.” See Sypniewski v. Warren Hills Reg’l Bd. of Educ., 307 F.3d 243, 252 n. 10 (3d Cir.2002). We review the District Court’s factual findings for clear error, its legal conclusions de novo, and its ultimate decision to grant the preliminary injunction for abuse of discretion. Id. at 252. Four factors determine whether a preliminary injunction is appropriate: (1) whether the movant has a reasonable probability of success on the merits; (2) whether the movant will be irreparably harmed by denying the injunction; (3) whether there will be greater harm to the nonmoving party if the injunction is granted; and (4) whether granting the injunction is in the public interest. Id. (quoting Highmark, Inc. v. UPMC Health Plan, Inc, 276 F.3d 160, 170 (3d Cir.2001)). The District Court concluded that all four factors weighed in favor of B.H. and K.M. In school-speech cases, though, the first factor—-the likelihood of success on the merits—tends to determine which way the other factors fall. Id. at 258. Because the same is true here, we focus first on B.H. and KM.’s burden to show a likelihood of success on the merits. Id. III. The School District defends the bracelet ban as an exercise of its authority to restrict lewd, vulgar, profane, or plainly offensive student speech under Fraser. As to the novel question of Fraser’s scope, jurists seem to agree on one thing: “[t]he mode of analysis employed in Fraser is not entirely clear.” Morse, 551 U.S. at 404, 127 S.Ct. 2618. On this point, we think the Supreme Court’s student-speech cases are more consistent than they may first appear. As we explain, Fraser involved only plainly lewd speech. We hold that, under Fraser, a school may also categorically restrict speech that—although not plainly lewd, vulgar, or profane—could be interpreted by a reasonable observer as lewd, vulgar, or profane so long as it could not also plausibly be interpreted as commenting on a political or social issue. Because the “I V boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” bracelets are not plainly lewd and express support for a national breast-cancer-awareness campaign-—unquestionably an important social issue—they may not be categorically restricted under Fraser. A. The Supreme Court’s decision in Fraser “[A]s a general matter, the First Amendment means that government has no power to restrict expression because of its message, its ideas, its subject matter, or its content.” Ashcroft v. ACLU, 535 U.S. 564, 573, 122 S.Ct. 1700, 152 L.Ed.2d 771 (2002). Of course, there are exceptions. When acting as sovereign, the government is empowered to impose time, place, and manner restrictions on speech, see Ward v. Rock Against Racism, 491 U.S. 781, 791, 109 S.Ct. 2746, 105 L.Ed.2d 661 (1989), make reasonable, content-based decisions about what speech is allowed on government property that is not fully open to the public, see Ark. Educ. Television Comm’n v. Forbes, 523 U.S. 666, 674-75, 118 S.Ct. 1633, 140 L.Ed.2d 875 (1998), decide what viewpoints to espouse in its own speech or speech that might be attributed to it, see Johanns v. Livestock Mktg. Ass’n, 544 U.S. 550, 560, 125 S.Ct. 2055, 161 L.Ed.2d 896 (2005), and categorically restrict unprotected speech, such as obscenity, see Miller v. California, 413 U.S. 15, 23, 93 S.Ct. 2607, 37 L.Ed.2d 419 (1973). Sometimes, however, the government acts in capacities that go beyond being sovereign. In those capacities, it not only retains its sovereign authority over speech but also gains additional flexibility to regulate speech. See In re Kendall, 712 F.3d 814, 825 (3d Cir.2013) (collecting examples). One of those other capacities is K-12 educator. Although “students do not ‘shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate,’ ” the First Amendment has to be “applied in light of the special characteristics of the school environment” and thus students’ rights to freedom of speech “are not automatically coextensive with the rights of adults in other settings.” Morse, 551 U.S. at 396-97,127 S.Ct. 2618 (internal quotation marks and citations omitted). The Supreme Court first expressed this principle nearly a half century ago. In 1965, the United States deployed over 200,000 troops to Vietnam as part of Operation Rolling Thunder—and thus began the Vietnam War. That war “divided this country as few other issues [e]ver have.” Tinker, 393 U.S. at 524, 89 S.Ct. 733 (Black, J., dissenting). Public opposition to the war made its way into schools, and in one high-profile case, a group of high-school and middle-school students wore black armbands to express their opposition. Id. at 504, 89 S.Ct. 733 (majority opinion). School officials adopted a policy prohibiting the armbands and suspending any student who refused to remove it when asked. Id. Some students refused and were suspended. Id. The Supreme Court upheld their right to wear the armbands. Id. at 514, 89 S.Ct. 733. Tinker held that school officials may not restrict student speech without a reasonable forecast that the speech would substantially disrupt the school environment or invade the rights of others. Id. at 513, 89 S.Ct. 733. As nothing more than the “silent, passive expression of opinion, unaccompanied by any disorder or disturbance on [the students’] part,” the students’ armbands were protected by the First Amendment. Id. at 508, 89 S.Ct. 733. Under Tinkers “general rule,” the government may restrict school speech that threatens a specific and substantial disruption to the school environment or that “inva[des] ... the rights of others.” Saxe v. State College Area Sch. Dist., 240 F.3d 200, 211, 214 (3d Cir.2001) (citing Tinker, 393 U.S. at 504, 89 S.Ct. 733). Since Tinker, the Supreme Court has identified three “narrow” circumstances in which the government may restrict student speech even when there is no risk of substantial disruption or invasion of others’ rights. Id. at 212. First, the government may categorically restrict vulgar, lewd, profane, or plainly offensive speech in schools, even if it would not be obscene outside of school. Fraser, 478 U.S. at 683, 685, 106 S.Ct. 3159. Second, the government may likewise restrict speech that “a reasonable observer would interpret as advocating illegal drug use” and that cannot “plausibly be interpreted as commenting on any political or social issue.” Morse, 551 U.S. at 422, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (Alito, J., concurring); see also id. at 403, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (majority opinion) (“[TJhis is plainly not a case about political debate over the criminalization of drug use or possession.”). And third, the government may impose restrictions on school-sponsored speech that are “reasonably related to legitimate pedagogical concerns”—a power usually lumped together with the other school-specific speech doctrines but that, strictly speaking, simply reflects the government’s more general power as sovereign over government-sponsored speech. Hazelwood Sch. Dist. v. Kuhlmeier, 484 U.S. 260, 273, 108 S.Ct. 562, 98 L.Ed.2d 592 (1988). The first exception is at issue here. We must determine the scope of the government’s authority to categorically restrict vulgar, lewd, indecent, or plainly offensive speech under Fraser. Fraser involved a high-school assembly during which a student “nominated a peer for class office through an ‘an elaborate, graphic, and explicit sexual metaphor.’ ” Saxe, 240 F.3d at 212 (quoting Fraser, 478 U.S. at 677, 106 S.Ct. 3159). Fraser’s speech “glorifiied] male sexuality”: I know a man who is firm—he’s firm in his pants, he’s firm in his shirt, his character is firm—but most ... of all, his belief in you, the students of Bethel, is firm.... Jeff Kuhlman [the candidate] is a man who takes his point and pounds it in. If necessary, he’ll take an issue and nail it to the wall. He doesn’t attack things in spurts, he drives hard, pushing and pushing until finally—he succeeds.... Jeff is a man who will go to the very end—even the climax, for each and every one of you.... So vote for Jeff for A.S.B. vice-president—he’ll never come between you and the best our high school can be. Fraser, 478 U.S. at 687, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (Brennan, J., concurring). In response, “[s]ome students hooted and yelled; some by gestures simulated the sexual activities pointedly alluded to in [Fraser’s] speech.” Id. at 678, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (majority opinion). Still “[o]ther students appeared to be bewildered and embarrassed by the speech.” Id. The school suspended Fraser and took him out of the running for graduation speaker. Id. The Supreme Court upheld Fraser’s suspension. Id. at 683, 106 S.Ct. 3159. Rather than requiring a reasonable forecast of substantial disruption under Tinker, the Court held that lewd, vulgar, indecent, and plainly offensive student speech is categorically unprotected in school, even if it falls short of obscenity and would have been protected outside school. Saxe, 240 F.3d at 213 (discussing Fraser)-, Morse, 551 U.S. at 405, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (“Had Fraser delivered the same speech in a public forum outside the school context, it would have been protected.”); Fraser, 478 U.S. at 688, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (Blackmun, J., concurring) (“If [Fraser] had given the same speech outside of the school environment, he could not have been penalized simply because government officials considered his language to be inappropriate.”). For this proposition, the Court relied on precedent holding that the government can restrict expression that would be obscene from a minor’s perspective-even though it would not be obscene in an adult’s view—where minors are either a captive audience or the intended recipients of the speech. See Fraser, 478 U.S. at 684-85, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (relying on Ginsberg v. New York, 390 U.S. 629, 635-37 & nn. 45, 88 S.Ct. 1274, 20 L.Ed.2d 195 (1968) (upholding criminal punishment for selling to minors any picture depicting nudity); Bd. of Educ., Island Trees Union Free Sch. Dist. No. 26 v. Pico, 457 U.S. 853, 870, 102 S.Ct. 2799, 73 L.Ed.2d 435 (1982) (plurality opinion) (acknowledging that the Free Speech Clause would allow a local board of education to remove “pervasively vulgar” books from school libraries); and FCC v. Pacifica Found., 438 U.S. 726, 749-50, 98 S.Ct. 3026, 57 L.Ed.2d 1073 (1978) (rejecting a Free Speech Clause challenge to the FCC’s broad leeway to regulate indecent-but-not-obscene material on broadcast television during hours when children were likely to watch)). Fraser did no more than extend these obscenity-to-minors cases to another place where minors are a captive audience—schools. Indeed, as the Court explained, schools are tasked with more than just “educating our youth” about “books, the curriculum, and the civics class.” Id. at 681, 106 S.Ct. 3159. Society also expects schools to “teaeh[ ] students the boundaries of socially appropriate behavior,” including the “fundamental values of ‘habits and manners of civility’ essential to a democratic society.” Id. at 681, 683, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (citation omitted). Consequently, Fraser’s “sexually explicit monologue” was not protected. Id. at 685, 106 S.Ct. 3159. It is important to recognize what was not at stake in Fraser. Fraser addressed only a school’s power over speech that was plainly lewd—not speech that a reasonable observer could interpret as either lewd or non-lewd. See, e.g., Doninger v. Niehoff, 527 F.3d 41, 49 (2d Cir.2008) (“[Fraser’s ] reference to ‘plainly offensive’ speech must be understood in light of the vulgar, lewd, and sexually explicit language that was at issue in [that] case.”); Chandler v. McMinnville Sch. Dist., 978 F.2d 524, 530 (9th Cir.1992) (interpreting Fraser as limited to “per se vulgar, lewd, obscene, or plainly offensive” school speech). After all, the Court believed Fraser’s speech to be “plainly offensive to both teachers and students—indeed to any mature person.” Fraser, 478 U.S. at 683, 106 S.Ct. 3159. And because it was plainly lewd, the Court did not believe that Fraser’s speech could plausibly be interpreted as political or social commentary. In hindsight, it might be tempting to believe that Fraser’s speech was political because it was made in the context of a student election. Cf. Citizens United v. FEC, 558 U.S. 310, 130 S.Ct. 876, 898, 175 L.Ed.2d 753 (2010) (describing the importance of political speech as the “means to hold officials accountable to the people”). But that kind of revisionist history is belied by both the logic and language of Fraser. “Fraser permits a school to prohibit words that ‘offend for the same reasons that obscenity offends.’ ” Saxe, 240 F.3d at 213 (quoting Fraser, 478 U.S. at 685, 106 S.Ct. 3159). Obscenity, in turn, offends because it is “no essential part of any exposition of ideas, and [is] of such slight social value as a step to truth that any benefit that may be derived from [it] is clearly outweighed by the social interest in order and morality.” Fraser, 478 U.S. at 683, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (quoting Pacifica Found., 438 U.S. at 746, 98 S.Ct. 3026 (plurality opinion)). In other words, obscenity and obscenity to minors, like “other historically unprotected categories of speech,” have little or no political or social value. United States v. Stevens, 559 U.S. 460, 130 S.Ct. 1577, 1585, 176 L.Ed.2d 435 (2010). By concluding that Fraser’s speech met the obscenity-to-minors standard, the Court necessarily implied that his speech could not be interpreted as having “serious” political value. Miller, 413 U.S. at 24, 93 S.Ct. 2607. In fact, the majority in Fraser made this explicit. “[T]he Fraser [C]ourt distinguished its holding from Tinker in part on the absence of any political message in Fraser’s speech.” Guiles ex rel. Guiles v. Marinean, 461 F.3d 320, 326, 328 (2d Cir.2006). In the Court’s own words, there was a “marked distinction between the political ‘message’ of the armbands in Tinker and the sexual content of [Fraser’s] speech.” Fraser, 478 U.S. at 680, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (emphasis added); see also Defoe ex rel. Defoe v. Spiva, 625 F.3d 324, 332 (6th Cir.2010) {“Tinker governs this case because by wearing clothing bearing images of the Confederate flag, Tom Defoe engaged in ‘pure speech,’ which is protected by the First Amendment, and thus Fraser would not apply.”). Several courts of appeals have similarly interpreted Fraser. Guiles, 461 F.3d at 326, 328; Newsom ex rel. Newsom v. Albemarle Cnty. Sch. BcL, 354 F.3d 249, 256 (4th Cir.2003) (explaining that Fraser “distinguished] Tinker on the basis that the lewd, vulgar, and plainly offensive speech was ‘unrelated to any political viewpoint’ ” (quoting Fraser, 478 U.S. at 685, 106 S.Ct. 3159)); Chandler, 978 F.2d at 532 n. 2 (Goodwin, J., concurring) (concluding that Fraser does not apply because “this case clearly involves political speech”). And the Supreme Court later characterized Fraser's reasoning the same way. Morse, 551 U.S. at 404, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (noting that Fraser was “plainly attuned” to the sexual, nonpolitical “content of Fraser’s speech”). In fact, Morse refused to “stretch[ ] Fraser ” so far as to “encompass any speech that could fit under some definition of ‘offensive’” out of a fear that “much political and religious speech might be perceived as offensive to some.” Id. at 409, 127 S.Ct. 2618. Fraser therefore involved plainly lewd speech that did not comment on political or social issues. B. How far does a school’s authority under Fraser extend? The School District asks us to extend Fraser in at least two ways: to reach speech that is ambiguously lewd, vulgar, or profane and to reach speech on political or social issues. The first step is justified, but the second is not. 1. Under Fraser, schools may restrict ambiguously lewd speech only if it cannot plausibly be interpreted as commenting on a social or political matter. Although Fraser involved plainly lewd, vulgar, profane, or offensive speech that “offends for the same reasons obscenity offends,” Saxe, 240 F.3d at 213 (quoting Fraser, 478 U.S. at 685, 106 S.Ct. 3159), student speech need not rise to that level to be restricted under Fraser. We conclude that schools may also categorically restrict ambiguous speech that a reasonable observer could interpret as lewd, vulgar, profane, or offensive—unless, as explained below, the speech could also plausibly be interpreted as commenting on a political or social issue. After all, Fraser made clear that “the determination of what manner of speech in the classroom or in school assembly is inappropriate properly rests with the school board.” 478 U.S. at 683, 106 S.Ct. 3159. The Supreme Court’s three other student-speech cases suggest that courts should defer to a school’s decisions to restrict what a reasonable observer would interpret as lewd, vulgar, profane, or offensive. See Morse, 551 U.S. at 403, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (explaining that, under Tinker, courts determine whether school officials have “reasonably concluded]” that student speech will substantially disrupt the school); id. at 405, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (explaining that, under Kuhlmeier, courts uphold a school’s reasonable, pedagogically related restrictions on speech that an observer could reasonably attribute to the school); id. at 422, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (Alito, J., concurring) (explaining that schools may restrict student speech that could “reasonably be regarded as encouraging illegal drug use” and that could not plausibly be interpreted as commenting on a political or social issue). This makes sense. School officials know the age, maturity, and other characteristics of their students far better than judges do. Our review is restricted to a cold and distant record. And we must take into account that these same officials must often act “suddenly and unexpectedly” based on their experience. Id. at 409-10, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (majority opinion); see, e.g., Walker-Serrano ex rel. Walker v. Leonard, 325 F.3d 412, 416-17 (3d Cir. 2003) (“There can be little doubt that speech appropriate for eighteen-year-old high school students is not necessarily acceptable for seven-year-old grammar school students. Human sexuality provides the most obvious example of age-sensitive matter....” (citing Fraser, 478 U.S. at 683-84, 106 S.Ct. 3159)); Sypniewski, 307 F.3d at 266 (“What is necessary in one school at one time will not be necessary elsewhere and at other times.”). It remains the job of judges, nonetheless, to determine whether a reasonable observer could interpret student speech as lewd, profane, vulgar, or offensive. See Morse, 551 U.S. at 402, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (taking the same approach with respect to the message of drug advocacy on Frederick’s banner); see also Christian Legal Soc’y Chapter of the Univ. of Cal. v. Martinez, — U.S.-, 130 S.Ct. 2971, 2988, 177 L.Ed.2d 838 (2010) (“This Court is the final arbiter of the question whether a public university has exceeded constitutional constraints, and we owe no deference to universities when we consider that question.”). Whether a reasonable observer could interpret student speech as lewd, profane, vulgar, or offensive depends on the plausibility of the school’s interpretation in light of competing meanings; the context, content, and form of the speech; and the age and maturity of the students. See, e.g., Chandler, 978 F.2d at 530 (analyzing the word “scab” on buttons worn by students during a teacher strike to determine whether it was a vulgar, offensive epithet or just “common parlance” and concluding that, at the motion-to-dismiss stage, Fraser did not apply). Although this is a highly contextual inquiry, several rules apply. A reasonable observer would not adopt an aeon-textual interpretation, and the subjective intent of the speaker is irrelevant. See Morse, 551 U.S. at 401-02, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (explaining that Frederick’s desire to appear on television “was a description of [his] motive for displaying the banner” and “not an interpretation of what the banner sa[id]”); see also Saxe, 240 F.3d at 216-17 (noting that students’ intent to offend or disrupt does not satisfy Tinker). And Fraser is not a blank check to categorically restrict any speech that touches on sex or any speech that has the potential to offend. See Morse, 551 U.S. at 401, 409, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (refusing to “stretch[] Fraser” so far as “to encompass any speech that could fit under some definition of ‘offensive’ and rejecting the argument that the “BONG HiTS 4 JESUS” message on Frederick’s banner could be banned under Fraser, even though it “is no doubt offensive to some” ”); accord Eugene Volokh, May ‘Jesus Is Not a Homophobe’ T-shirt Be Banned From Public High School As Indecent’ And ‘Sexual’?, The Volokh Conspiracy (Apr. 4, 2012, 3:36 PM), http:// www.volokh.com/2012/04/04/may-jesuswas-not-a-homophobe-T-shirt-be-bannedfrom-public-high-school-as-indecent-and-sexual/ (“But Fraser ... hardly suggested that all speech on political and religious questions related to sexuality and sexual orientation could be banned from public high school.”). After all, a school’s mission to mold students into citizens capable of engaging in civil discourse includes teaching students of sufficient age and maturity how to navigate debates touching on sex. 2. Fraser does not permit a school to restrict ambiguously lewd speech that can also plausibly be interpreted as commenting on a social or political issue. A school’s leeway to categorically restrict ambiguously lewd speech, however, ends when that speech could also plausibly be interpreted as expressing a view on a political or social issue. Justices Alito and Kennedy’s concurrence in Morse adopted a similar protection for political speech that could be interpreted as illegal drug advocacy. Their narrower rationale protecting political speech limits and controls the majority opinion in Morse, and it applies with even greater force to ambiguously lewd speech. Justice Alito’s concurrence, joined by Justice Kennedy, provided the crucial fourth and fifth votes in the five-to-four majority opinion. But the two justices conditioned their votes on the “understanding that (1) [the majority opinion] goes no further than to hold that a public school may restrict speech that a reasonable observer would interpret as advocating illegal drug use and (2) it provides no support for any restriction of speech that can plausibly be interpreted as commenting on any political or social issue.” Morse, 551 U.S. at 422, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (Alito, J., concurring); see id. at 425, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (regarding the categorical regulation of non-political advocacy of ambiguous illegal drug advocacy “as standing at the far reaches of what the First Amendment permits” and “join[ing] the opinion of the Court with the understanding that the opinion does not endorse any further extension”). The purpose of Justice Alito’s concurrence was to “ensur[e] that political speech will remain protected within the school setting” (subject, as always, to Tinkers substantial-disruption principle). Ponce v. Socorro Indep. Sch. Dist., 508 F.3d 765, 768 (5th Cir.2007). Because the votes of Justices Alito and Kennedy were necessary to the majority opinion and were expressly conditioned on their narrower understanding that speech plausibly interpreted as political or social commentary was protected from categorical regulation, that limitation is a binding part of Morse. This conclusion requires a minor detour. The most familiar situation in which we follow the narrowest rationale was expressed t by the Supreme Court in Marks v. United States: when “no single rationale explaining the result enjoys the assent of five Justices, the holding of the Court may be viewed as that position taken by those Members who concurred in the judgments on the narrowest grounds.” 430 U.S. 188, 193, 97 S.Ct. 990, 51 L.Ed.2d 260 (1977) (internal quotation marks and citations omitted). But that situation is not the only one in which we tally the justices’ views and look for the narrowest rationale. The Supreme Court and this Court have both applied the narrowest-grounds approach in circumstances beyond those posed by Marks, including to determine holdings in majority opinions (not just plurality opinions involving “no single legal rationale explaining] the result”) and to count even dissenting justices’ votes that, by definition, could not “explain the result” (not just the votes of those who “concurred in the judgments”). See United States v. Johnson, 467 F.3d 56, 65 (1st Cir.2006) (noting that the Supreme Court has “moved away” from adhering to the strict circumstances in Marks). And it makes sense that the limitations in Justice Alito’s concurrence would narrow the majority opinion. When an individual justice’s vote is not needed to form a majority, “the meaning of a majority opinion is to be found within the opinion itself’ because “the gloss that an individual [j]ustice chooses to place upon it is not authoritative.” McKoy v. North Carolina, 494 U.S. 433, 448 n. 3, 110 S.Ct. 1227, 108 L.Ed.2d 369 (1990) (Blackmun, J., concurring). But when an individual justice joins the majority and is essential to maintaining the majority, and then writes separately, “the opinion is not a majority opinion except to the extent that it accords with his views.” Id. at 462 n. 3, 110 S.Ct. 1227 (Scalia, J., dissenting). Of course, that linchpin justice’s opinion “cannot add to what the majority opinion holds” by “binding the other four ¡^justices to what they have not said” because his views would not be the narrowest grounds. Id. But that justice’s separate opinion “can assuredly narrow what the majority opinion holds, by explaining the more limited interpretation adopted by that necessary member of the majority.” Id. In that case, the linchpin justice’s views are “the least common denominator” necessary to maintain a majority opinion. Id.; see generally Sonja R. West, Concurring in Part and Concurring in the Confusion, 104 Mich. L.Rev.1951 (2006) (advocating the same approach and explaining that it is consistent with determining precedent from the traditional Supreme Court’s seriatim opinions). Indeed, this is not the first time that we have been compelled to limit a majority opinion by a linchpin justice’s narrower concurrence. In Horn v. Thoratec, we considered whether the federal regulation of medical devices preempts only state-law “requirement^]” specific to medical devices or also preempts general common-law claims not specific to medical devices (such as negligence). See 376 F.3d 163, 173-74 (3d Cir.2004). That, in turn, required us to analyze the Supreme Court’s decision in Medtronic v. Lohr, 518 U.S. 470, 116 S.Ct. 2240, 135 L.Ed.2d 700 (1996). We read Part V of the Lohr majority opinion—which Justice Breyer formally joined as the fifth vote—as saying that only device-specific state-law requirements, not general common-law claims, are preempted. See Horn, 376 F.3d at 174 (noting that the majority in Part V conclud[ed] that common-law claims “escape! ]” preemption because “their generality leaves them outside” of the preempted category of device-specific requirements (quoting Lohr, 518 U.S. at 502, 116 S.Ct. 2240)); id. at 175 (explaining that “Justice Breyer joined in some parts of Justice Stevens’ plurality opinion (thus making it a majority opinion at times),” including “in Part V”). But we also read Justice Breyer’s concurrence as reaching the opposite conclusion, despite his having joined that portion of the majority opinion. See id. Faced with an apparent conflict between Part V of the majority opinion and Justice Breyer’s concurrence, we followed the latter because it was narrower, just as the Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Eighth, and Ninth Circuits had done. Id. at 175-76; see also Martin v. Medtronic, 254 F.3d 573, 581-83 (5th Cir.2001); Kemp v. Medtronic, 231 F.3d 216, 230 (6th Cir.2000); Mitchell v. Collagen Corp., 126 F.3d 902, 911-12 (7th Cir.1997); Papike v. Tambrands, Inc., 107 F.3d 737, 742 (9th Cir.1997). In doing so, we rejected our dissenting colleague’s argument that the narrowest-grounds approach was “simply inapplicable” because Justice Breyer joined Part V of the majority opinion and that the “correct course of action” in the event of a conflict “would be to follow Part V as the majority opinion.” Horn, 376 F.3d at 184 & n. 30 (Fuentes, J., dissenting); see id. at 183 (explaining that the Horn majority and the Seventh and Ninth Circuits “also perceived a contradiction and chose to ignore Justice Breyer’s vote for Part V, instead crediting the apparently contrary reasoning in his concurrence”). Likewise, in United States v. Bishop, 66 F.3d 569, 576-77 (3d Cir.1995), we relied on the narrower concurring views of Justices Kennedy and O’Connor to limit the majority’s opinion in United States v. Lopez, 514 U.S. 549, 115 S.Ct. 1624, 131 L.Ed.2d 626 (1995), which they formally joined as the fourth and fifth votes. We declined to read the majority opinion so broadly as to upend judicial deference to Congress’s judgment about whether an activity substantially implicates interstate commerce, instead following the concurrence’s view that the majority had reached a “necessary though limited holding” that still “counseled great restraint” before finding that Congress had transgressed its Commerce Clause power. Bishop, 66 F.3d at 590 (quoting Lopez, 514 U.S. at 568, 115 S.Ct. 1624 (Kennedy, J., concurring)). As in Horn, we took that approach notwithstanding our dissenting colleague’s argument that we should follow the breadth of the majority opinion and ignore the narrower concurrence because “Justices O’Connor and Kennedy joined in the [majority] opinion.” Id. at 591 (Becker, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). As even our dissenting colleague explained, we followed the narrower views of Justices O’Connor and Kennedy because they “form[ed] an intermediate bloc [of the majority] which would view Lopez as case-specific.” Id. And Horn and Bishop are not the only examples. See, e.g., United States v. Monclavo-Cruz, 662 F.2d 1285, 1288 (9th Cir.1981) (relying on the narrowing construction given to the majority opinion by Justice Powell, who was also a necessary member of the majority, to limit the majority’s holding in South Dakota v. Opperman, 428 U.S. 364, 96 S.Ct. 3092, 49 L.Ed.2d 1000 (1976)); United States v. Wilson, 636 F.2d 1161, 1164 (8th Cir.1980) (similar). To be sure, the Supreme Court once said—in a case not involving a linchpin concurrence—that federal courts should not give “much precedential weight” to a concurring opinion, even if it coheres with the majority opinion. Alexander v. Sandoval, 532 U.S. 275, 285 n. 5, 121 S.Ct. 1511, 149 L.Ed.2d 517 (2001); see also Vasquez v. Hillery, 474 U.S. 254, 106 S.Ct. 617, 622 n. 4, 88 L.Ed.2d 598 (1986) (describing the Marks rule as “inapplicable” to an opinion “to which five Justices expressly subscribed”). Yet we have already decided that this principle from Alexander is inapplicable to a concurrence that (1) “cast the so-called ‘swing vote,’ which was crucial to the outcome of the case and without which there could be no majority,” and (2) took a narrower approach than the majority opinion. Horn, 376 F.3d at 174-75 (distinguishing Alexander on this basis). Which brings us back to Justice Alito’s concurrence in Morse. The linchpin justices in Morse—Justices Alito and Kennedy—expressly conditioned their joining the majority opinion on a narrower interpretation of the opinion—namely, that it did not permit the restriction of speech that could plausibly be interpreted as political or social speech. Had they known that lower courts would ignore their narrower understanding of the majority opinion—or had the majority opinion expressly gone farther than their limitations—then, by their own admission, they would not have joined the majority opinion. That would have transformed the five-justice majority opinion into a three-justice plurality opinion, with their concurring views becoming the controlling narrowest grounds under an uncontroversial application of the Marks doctrine. Why, then, should it matter whether they formally joined the majority opinion or not? It should not. Ignoring limitations placed on the majority opinion by a necessary member of the majority would mean that four justices could “fabricate a majority by binding a fifth to their interpretation of what they say, even though he writes separately to explain his own more narrow understanding.” McKoy, 494 U.S. at 462 n. 3, 110 S.Ct. 1227 (Scalia, J., dissenting). That produces inexplicable anomalies. If a four-justice plurality holds X and Y, and a fifth justice “concurs in the judgment” to hold only X and rejects Y, the fifth member’s more limited views become binding under a straightforward application of Marks. The same interpretation is true if the fifth justice joins the majority opinion and “concurs in part.” Yet if the same concurring justice joins the majority opinion while “concurring,” then the majority opinion holding X and Y becomes binding and the fifth member’s narrower views evaporate. Such an approach places all of its weight on the distinction between a justice’s choice to follow his name with “concurring” instead of “concurring in part” or “concurring in the judgment.” Cf. West, Concurring in Part and Concurring in the Confusion, 104 Mich. L.Rev. at 1953-54 (explaining why these “after the comma” phrases cannot bear such weight); Tristan C. Pelham-Webb, Note, Powelling for Precedent: “Binding ” Concurrences, 64 N.Y.U. Ann. Surv. Am. L. 693, 737 (2009) (same). That elevates formalism over substance at the expense of ignoring the very conditions on which a necessary member of the majority expressly chose to join the majority. In short, because Justice Alito’s concurrence provides “a single legal standard ... [that] when properly applied, produce[s] results with which a majority of the Justices in the case articulating the standard would agree,” United States v. Donovan, 661 F.3d 174, 182 (3d Cir.2011) (alterations in original) (internal quotation marks and citations omitted), his opinion in Morse forms the “narrowest grounds necessary to secure a majority,” Planned Parenthood of Se. Pa. v. Casey, 947 F.2d 682, 694 n. 7 (3d Cir.1991), aff'd in part and rev’d in part on other grounds, 505 U.S. 833, 112 S.Ct. 2791, 120 L.Ed.2d 674 (1992). As a result, we agree with the en banc Fifth Circuit that the limitations placed on the majority opinion by Justice Alito’s concurrence are binding on us. See Morgan v. Swanson, 659 F.3d 359, 403 (5th Cir.2011) (en banc) (majority opinion of Elrod, J.) (describing Justice Alito’s Morse concurrence as “controlling”); see also Morgan v. Plano Indep. Sch. Dist., 589 F.3d 740, 746 n. 25 (5th Cir.2009) (“We have held Justice Alito’s concurrence to be the controlling opinion in Morse.” (citing Ponce, 508 F.3d at 768)). Justice Alito would have protected political or social speech reasonably interpreted to advocate illegal drug use, and that protection applies even more strongly to ambiguously lewd speech. In Morse, the Court added a new categorical exception to Tinker, student speech that a reasonable observer could interpret as advocating illegal drug use but that cannot plausibly be interpreted as addressing political or social issues. Id. at 422, 127 S.Ct. 2618. The exception was justified because illegal drugs pose an “immediately obvious,” “grave” and “unique threat to the physical safety of students.” Id. at 425, 127 S.Ct. 2618. Despite that threat, however, the Court held that speech advocating illegal drug use is not categorically unprotected if it “can plausibly be interpreted as commenting on any political or social issue, including speech on issues such as the wisdom of the war on drugs or of legalizing marijuana for medicinal use.” Id. at 422, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (internal quotation marks omitted). Even with that limitation, the Court made clear that this new exception to Tinker “stances] at the far reaches of what the First Amendment permits.” Id. at 425,127 S.Ct. 2618. If speech posing such a “grave” and “unique threat to the physical safety of students” can be categorically regulated only when it cannot “plausibly be interpreted as commenting on any political or social issue”—and that regulation nonetheless “stand[s] at the far reaches of what the First Amendment permits”—then there is no reason why ambiguously lewd speech should receive any less protection when it also “can plausibly be interpreted as commenting on any political or social issue.” Id. at 422, 425, 127 S.Ct. 2618. One need not be a philosopher of Mill or Feinberg’s stature to recognize that harmful speech posing an “immediately obvious” threat to the “physical safety of students,” id. at 425, 127 S.Ct. 2618, presents a far graver threat to the educational mission of schools—thereby warranting less protection—than ambiguously lewd speech that might undercut teaching “the appropriate form of civil discourse” to students, Fraser, 478 U.S. at 683, 106 S.Ct. 3159. It would make no sense to afford a T-shirt exclaiming “I V pot! (LEGALIZE IT)” protection under Morse while declaring that a bracelet saying “I V boobies! (KEEP A BREAST)” is unprotected under Fraser. Those limits are persuasive on their own terms, even if we disregard the controlling limitations of Justice Alito’s Morse concurrence. Fraser reflects the longstanding notions that “not all speech is of equal First Amendment importance” and that “speech on matters of public concern ... is at the heart of the First Amendment’s protection.” Snyder v. Phelps, — U.S. —131 S.Ct. 1207, 1215, 179 L.Ed.2d 172 (2011) (quotation marks and citations omitted); see also Connick v. Myers, 461 U.S. 138, 145, 103 S.Ct. 1684, 75 L.Ed.2d 708 (1983) (“[S]peech on public issues occupies the highest rung of the hierarchy of First Amendment values, and is entitled to special protection.” (internal quotation marks and citations omitted)). And it is only a limited exception to the otherwise “bedrock principle” of the First Amendment that “the government may not prohibit the expression of an idea simply because society finds the idea itself offensive or disagreeable.” Texas v. Johnson, 491 U.S. 397, 414, 109 S.Ct. 2533, 105 L.Ed.2d 342 (1989); see also Sable Commc’ns of Cal. Inc. v. FCQ 492 U.S. 115, 126, 109 S.Ct. 2829, 106 L.Ed.2d 93 (1989) (“Sexual expression which is indecent but not obscene is protected by the First Amendment.”). The Supreme Court has never held that schools may bore willy-nilly through that bedrock principle. But it has made clear that “minors are entitled to a significant measure of First Amendment protection” and the government does not “have a free-floating power to restrict the ideas to which children may be exposed.” Brown v. Entm’t Merchs. Ass’n, — U.S. -, 131 S.Ct. 2729, 2736, 180 L.Ed.2d 708 (2011). To be sure, Fraser rejected the idea that “simply because an offensive form of expression may not be prohibited to adults making what the speaker considers a political point, the same latitude must be permitted to children in a public school.” Fraser, 478 U.S. at 682, 106 S.Ct. 3159. As we have explained, though, Fraser was limited to plainly lewd speech, and that refusal to protect a student’s plainly lewd speech where the same speech by an adult would be protected does not extend to political speech that is not plainly lewd. On that score, our conclusion puts us in good company with five justices in Morse who were expressly unwilling to permit a categorical exception to Tinker that would intrude on political or social speech and two justices who all but said as much. What’s more, this limitation is consistent with our previous intuitions as well as those of the Sixth and Second Circuits. See Saxe, 240 F.3d at 213 (Alito, J.) (noting that the “dichotomy” between Fraser and Tinker is “neatly illustrated by the comparison between Cohen’s [“Fuck the Draft”] jacket and Tinker’s armband”); Defoe, 625 F.3d at 335 n. 6 (rejecting the Eleventh Circuit’s extension of Fraser to displays of the Confederate flag and instead holding that such displays “by students [are] protected political speech that school officials may only regulate by satisfying the Tinker standard” (citing Barr v. Lafon, 538 F.3d 554, 569 n. 7 (6th Cir. 2008))); Guiles, 461 F.3d at 325 (holding Fraser inapplicable because the T-shirt was not “as plainly offensive as the sexually charged speech considered in Fraser ... [,] especially when considering that [it was] part of an anti-drug political message”). Consequently, we hold that the Fraser exception does not permit ambiguously lewd speech to be categorically restricted if it can plausibly be interpreted as political or social speech. 3. Under Fraser, schools may restrict plainly lewd speech regardless of whether it could plausibly be interpreted as social or political commentary. As the Supreme Court made clear in Fraser, though, schools may restrict plainly lewd speech regardless of whether it could plausibly be interpreted to comment on a political or social issue. Fraser, 478 U.S. at 682, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (“[T]he First Amendment gives a high school student the classroom right to wear Tinker’s armband, but not Cohen’s [“Fuck the Draft”] jacket.”). That is true by definition. Plainly lewd speech “offends for the same reasons obscenity offends” because the speech in that category is “no essential part of any exposition of ideas” and thus carries very “slight social value.” Id. at 683, 106 S.Ct. 3159 (quoting Pacifica Found., 438 U.S. at 746, 98 S.Ct. 3026 (plurality opinion)). As with obscenity in general, obscenity to minors, and all other historically unprotected categories of speech, “the evil to be restricted so overwhelmingly outweighs the expressive interests, if any, at stake, that no process of case-by-case adjudication is required” because “the balance of competing interests is clearly struck.” Stevens, 130 S.Ct. at 1585-86 (quoting New York v. Ferber, 458 U.S. 747, 763-64, 102 S.Ct. 3348, 73 L.Ed.2d 1113 (1982)). In other words, we do not engage in a case-by-case determination of whether obscenity to minors—and by extension, plainly lewd speech under Fraser—carries social value. As a result, schools may continue to regulate plainly lewd, vulgar, profane, or offensive speech under Fraser even if a particular instance of such speech can “plausibly be interpreted as commenting on any political or social issue.” Morse, 551 U.S. at 422, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (Alito, J., concurring). In response, the School District recites a mantra that has Fraser providing schools the ultimate discretion to define what is lewd and vulgar. It relies on the Supreme Court’s sentiment that schools may define their “basic educational mission” and prohibit student speech that is inconsistent with that mission. Kuhlmeier, 484 U.S. at 266-67, 108 S.Ct. 562. Indeed, before Morse, some courts of appeals adopted that broad interpretation of the Supreme Court’s student-speech cases. See, e.g., LaVine v. Blaine Sch. Dist., 257 F.3d 981, 988 (9th Cir.2001) (“[A] school need not tolerate student speech that is inconsistent with its basic educational mission.”); Boroff v. Van Wert City Bd. of Educ., 220 F.3d 465, 470 (6th Cir.2000) (“[Wjhere Boroffs T-shirts contain symbols and words that promote values that are so patently contrary to the school’s educational mission, the School has the authority, under the circumstances of this case, to prohibit those T-shirts [under Fraser ].”). Whatever the face value of those sentiments, such sweeping and total deference to school officials is incompatible with the Supreme Court’s teachings. In Tinker, Hazelwood, and Morse, the Supreme Court independently evaluated the meaning of the student’s speech and the reasonableness of the school’s interpretation and actions. There is no reason the school’s authority under Fraser should receive special treatment. More importantly, such an approach would swallow the other student-speech cases, including Tinker, effectively eliminating judicial review of student-speech restrictions. See Guiles, 461 F.3d at 327 (making this point). That is precisely why the Supreme Court in Morse explicitly rejected total deference to school officials: The opinion of the Court does not endorse the broad argument advanced by petitioners and the United States that the First Amendment permits public school officials to censor any student speech that interferes with a school’s “educational mission.” ... The “educational mission” argument would give public school authorities a license to suppress speech on political and social issues based on disagreement with the viewpoint expressed. The argument, therefore, strikes at the very heart of the First Amendment. Morse, 551 U.S. at 423, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (Alito, J., concurring). Instead, Morse settled on a narrower view of deference, deferring to a school administrator’s “reasonable judgment that Frederick’s sign qualified as drug advocacy” only if the speech could not plausibly be interpreted as commenting on a political or social issue. Morse, 551 U.S. at 441, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (Stevens, J., dissenting); see also id. at 408, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (majority opinion) (“[Sjchools [may] restrict student expression that they reasonably regard as promoting illegal drug use.”); id. at 422, 127 S.Ct. 2618 (Alito, J., concurring) (“[A] public school may restrict speech that a reasonable observer would interpret as advocating illegal drug use.... ”). Our approach to lewd speech provides the same degree of deference to schools as the Court did in Morse. We defer to a school’s reasonable judgment that an observer could interpret ambiguous speech as lewd, vulgar, profane, or offensive only if the speech could not plausibly be interpreted as commenting on a political or social issue. The School District invokes a parade of horribles that, in its view, would follow from our framework: protecting ambiguously lewd speech that comments on political or social issues—like the bracelets in this case—will encourage students to engage in more egregiously sexualized advocacy campaigns, which the schools will be obliged to allow. See Pa. Sch. Bd. Ass’n Amicus Br. in Supp. of Appellant at 19 (listing examples, including “I V Balls!” apparel for testicular cancer, and “I ¥ Va Jay Jays” apparel for the Human Papillomaviruses); App. 275-76 (raising the possibility of apparel bearing the slogans “I ¥ Balls!” or “I ¥ Titties!”). Like all slippery-slope arguments, the School District’s point can be inverted with equal logical force. If schools can categorically regulate terms like “boobies” even when the message comments on a social or political issue, schools could eliminate all student speech touching on sex or merely having the potential to offend. See Frederick Schauer, Slippery Slopes, 99 Harv. L.Rev. 361, 381 (1985) (“[I]n virtually every case in which a slippery slope argument is made, the opposing party could with equal formal and linguistic logic also make a slippery slope claim.”). The ease of turning a slippery-slope argument on its head explains why the persuasiveness of such a contention does not depend on its logical validity. Id. Instead, the correctness of a slippery-slope argument depends on an empirical prediction that a proposed rule will increase the likelihood of some other undesired outcome occurring. Id. (“To some people, one argument will seem more persuasive than the