Full opinion text
MARCUS, Circuit Judge: This is an antitrust action brought pursuant to section 1 of the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. § 1, and sections 4 and 16 of the Clayton Act, 15 U.S.C. §§ 15 and 26, by a class of several hundred cigarette wholesalers (“the class” or “the wholesalers”) against Philip Morris, Inc. (“PM”), R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. (“RJR”), Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corp. (“B&W”) and Lorillard Tobacco Co. (“Lorillard”) (collectively “the manufacturers”). The class alleges that the manufacturers conspired between 1993 and 2000 to fix cigarette prices at unnaturally high levels, and that this collusion resulted in wholesale list price overcharges of nearly $12 billion. The district court ultimately entered summary judgment in favor of the manufacturers. It reasoned that the wholesalers had failed to demonstrate the existence of a “plus factor,” as is necessary to create an inference of a price fixing conspiracy, and that even if the class had shown that a plus factor was present, the manufacturers were able to rebut fully the inference of collusion, as the economic realities of the 1990s cigarette market rendered the class’s conspiracy theory untenable. Rather, the district court held that the manufacturers’ pricing behavior evidenced nothing more than “conscious parallelism,” a perfectly legal phenomenon commonly associated with oligopolistic industries. On appeal, the wholesalers say that the district court misapplied the summary judgment standard, that they presented sufficient evidence to withstand the manufacturers’ motions, and that the court erred by excluding portions of the testimony proffered by their primary expert witness. In the end, we conclude that none of the class’s arguments are compelling and that the district court’s treatment of the wealth of complicated issues in this case was nuanced, insightful and, ultimately, correct. Accordingly, we affirm the court’s entry of final summary judgment in favor of PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard. I The modern American tobacco industry is a classic oligopoly. Between 1993 and 1999, appellees — the nation’s four largest cigarette manufacturers — along with Lig-gett Group, Inc., manufactured more than 97% of the cigarettes sold in the United States. Moreover, the composition of the industry has been remarkably stable over time, a condition that has resulted largely from the fact that during the twentieth century the major tobacco players engaged in minimal price competition. Because price fluctuations were relatively rare, smokers typically had no reason to change brands, brand loyalties were solidified and sizable market share shifts were uncommon. During the early 1990s, however, a price gap widened between premium brands like Marlboro, Newport and Camel and discount and deep discount brands such as GPC, Basic and Doral. This price differential was the result of extremely competitive pricing of the non-premium brands, especially by B&W and RJR, which focused a large percentage of their competitive efforts on the discount and deep discount markets. This led some “premium smokers” to shift to one of the non-premium brands, and by 1993 these brands had captured over 40% of the United States market. At that time, there were 10 different wholesale list price points, i.e., cigarette price tiers. Although this trend toward the discount and deep discount brands benefitted RJR and B&W, it was extremely undesirable from the perspective of premium-intensive manufacturers like PM and Lorillard. As such, PM — which at the time was (and remains) the market leader, with a market share that ranged from 42% to 50% during the period of the alleged conspiracy— sought in April, 1992 to raise the price of its lowest tier products by $4 per thousand. This effort was unsuccessful, however, because RJR, B&W and Lorillard did not follow suit, and PM was forced to rescind its price increase. Although PM again attempted to increase its deep discount prices in March, 1993, this effort similarly was rebuffed by its competitors. Though temporarily unsuccessful, PM continued looking for ways to reverse the trend toward discount cigarettes, and roughly one year after its failed $4 per thousand price increase it found one. On April 2, 1993, PM decided to take what appellants refer to as “the single boldest commercial move in U.S. cigarette market history”: it announced that it was cutting the retail price of Marlboro cigarettes-— which were by far the single best selling brand in America, enjoying a 21% market share — by 40 cents per pack and foregoing price increases on other premium brands “for the foreseeable future.” April 2, 1993 subsequently became widely known throughout the industry as “Marlboro Friday.” This highly competitive pricing decision was extremely significant for several reasons. First, it left no doubt that PM was willing to take drastic competitive measures (indeed, to sacrifice profits) in order to protect the market share of its flagship brand. Second and quite importantly, it slimmed the price gap between premium and discount cigarettes. Because this price differential was constricted, consumers suddenly had less of an economic incentive to purchase discount cigarettes, and as a result premium brands like Marlboro regained some of market share they had lost prior to Marlboro Friday. Finally, it set off a price war among appellees, as RJR, B&W and Lorillard were immediately confronted with a need to respond in some way to PM’s bold action. In order to remain competitive, these manufacturers matched PM’s retail price reductions. Although these pricing actions cut into the market share held by discount brands generally, and thus led to a reduction in the overall share held by RJR and B&W, which, as stated, were more heavily invested in these brands, the decision to match PM’s price reduction meant that no manufacturer suffered unduly large market share losses. However, this vast decrease in cigarette prices was disastrous for PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard alike in terms of profits, and appellees were forced to rethink their profitability strategies. Indeed, appellants recognize that this economic landscape became especially difficult in light of increasing regulation of the industry and the surge of health-related litigation. To exacerbate its competitors’ predicament, on July 20,1993, PM announced that its Marlboro Friday price reduction would be made permanent and expanded to all of its premium brands, e.g., Parliament and Virginia Slims. Moreover, PM simultaneously lowered the wholesale price of its discount cigarettes and raised the wholesale price of its deep discount brands by 10 cents per pack, thereby consolidating the prices of these brand categories. This action reduced what had been 10 price points in the American cigarette market to four: 85 mm (regular length) premium cigarettes occupied one price tier, 100 mm (extra-long) premiums occupied another, and 85 mm and 100 mm discounts occupied the remaining two tiers. Again, PM’s competitors promptly matched these newly announced prices. What’s more, the very next day RJR announced that it would collapse the prices of its regular and 100 mm cigarettes, thereby reducing the price tiers to two: premium and discount. PM, B&W and Lorillard quickly followed suit. Appellants contend that it is only at this point that PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard began conspiring to fix and steadily increase prices to make up for the tremendous financial losses they suffered as a consequence of this price war. The class says that PM’s actions on Marlboro Friday constructively informed its competitors that price discounting to gain market share would no longer be tolerated, and that only when such efforts were abandoned, and the premium/discount price gap narrowed, could prices again rise. By appellants’ account, the manufacturers’ conspiracy began in earnest when appellees began using trade press — i.e., tobacco industry financial analysts like Gary Black— to “signal” each other regarding their willingness to comply with PM’s implicit demands so as to facilitate price increases. For example, the class points to a statement made by Martin Broughton, the CEO and Deputy Chairman of British American Tobacco (“BAT”), B&W’s parent company, that “BAT may be one of those who started the price war in the U.S., but we have no wish to escalate it.” Appellants argue that this statement somehow was a signal sent by B&W to its competitors that B&W was willing to reduce or end price competition. The class alleges that RJR conveyed a similar message on November 2, 1998 by publicly announcing that it would no longer sacrifice profitability for market share. Appellants say that PM signaled its acceptance of its competitors’ overtures by putting its distributors on “permanent allocation” — that is, limiting the quantities of product the distributors could order — on November 5, 1993. Historically, this practice had been implemented as a temporary measure prior to a price increase, with the purpose being to prevent the wholesalers from engaging in “trade loading,” i.e., stocking up on cigarettes before the increase so as to deprive appellees of the benefit of their price adjustment. The class says that PM’s placement of its wholesalers on permanent allocation actually was a signal that the price increase sought by RJR, B&W and Lorillard was coming. Appellants suggest that RJR responded to PM’s signal on November 8, 1993 with one last signal of its own. Specifically, the class argues that by announcing an increase of $2 per thousand cigarettes (4<t per pack) in both the premium and discount categories, and thus maintaining the constricted discount/premium price gap, RJR indicated that it was acceding to PM’s conditions for increasing prices. By November 22, 1993, PM, B&W and Loril-lard had matched RJR’s increase. The class argues that it was in the economic interests of RJR and B&W to attempt to widen the premium-discount price gap, and that their failure to do so is evidence of collusion. This initial RJR-led price increase was followed by eleven more parallel increases between May 4, 1995 and January 14, 2000. See Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1264 (detailing these increases). The class contends that not only is this synchronous movement evidence of a price fixing agreement, but that many of these increases were not in the economic interest of all four alleged co-conspirators. For example, appellants argue that on November 23, 1998, following the industry’s settlement of health care litigation with numerous state attorneys general, PM raised its list prices by $22.50 per thousand (45c per pack), which was more than was needed to offset the settlement costs. Although RJR, B&W and Lorillard matched the increase, the class says that had PM behaved rationally it would have increased prices less, as it was in a stronger financial position than its competitors, who would have been forced to forfeit market share in order to remain competitive. Appellants contend that signaling was also accomplished through the use of “credit memos” that accompanied the manufacturers’ price increases. The class says that these memos granted wholesalers credits for the difference between the old (pre-increase) prices and the new prices for several weeks after the announcement of a price increase that purportedly was immediately effective. This allegedly was an opportunity for the competitors of the manufacturer that implemented the increase to match the increase before the implementing manufacturer began to profit from it. The manufacturers respond to the class’s signaling allegations by pointing to several facets of the record that undermine appellees’ allegations of conspiracy. Preliminarily, PM, RJR, B&W and Loril-lard observe that although wholesale price competition largely abated during the alleged conspiracy period, this resulted in significant part from a shift in their competitive efforts to the retail arena. Indeed, during the alleged conspiracy period, the manufacturers spent on retail competition more than twice the amount the wholesalers claim to have been overcharged. For example, from 1994 to 1999, PM’s spending on retail promotions and incentive programs more than doubled. In 1999 alone, PM — the company that appellants say led the price fixing agreement — spent nearly $2.9 billion (60% of its operating income) on retail promotions, couponing and its retailer incentive program. Notably, during 1998, retail competition within the tobacco industry was so intense that RJR, B&W and Lorillard brought an antitrust and unfair competition suit against PM based on PM’s unilateral adoption of a program that it called “Retail Leaders.” See R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. v. Philip Morris, Inc., 199 F.Supp.2d 362, 365 (M.D.N.C.2002). This shift to retail competition was efficacious, RJR says, because (1) wholesalers cannot, by themselves, increase demand for appellees’ products, as demand necessarily is generated by consumers; (2) retail promotions can be applied more precisely than wholesale incentives, for example, a “buy one pack get a second pack free” promotion can be targeted to convenience stores that sell cigarettes by the pack as opposed to retail outlets that sell them by the carton; (3) similarly, retail promotions serve as targeted defensive responses to the competitive initiatives of other manufacturers, and this targeting is more easily accomplished at the retail level; (4) manufacturers cannot guarantee that wholesale list price reductions will be passed through both the wholesalers and retailers to consumers, and that the only sure-fire way to guaranty retail savings is through retail-targeted measures; and (5) unlike wholesale incentives, retail price promotions help manufacturers compete for retail advertising and display space, which is of paramount importance from a marketing perspective. Moreover, it is indisputable that from 1993 to 1996, the manufacturers increased wholesale list prices only four times for a total of 16 cents per pack, a sum less than half the price decrease that resulted from PM’s actions on Marlboro Friday. Accordingly, during the first half of the alleged conspiracy period, prices were uniformly lower and rose at a substantially slower pace than during the competitive time prior to the conspiracy’s alleged onset. Indeed, appellees note, it was only five years later (during 1998), as a result of the health care settlements, that cigarette prices surpassed their pre-Marlboro Friday levels. In fact, adjusted for settlement costs, federal excise tax increases and inflation, wholesale list prices did not reach these levels until August, 1999. The evidence also establishes that significant market share shifts occurred within the tobacco industry during the alleged conspiracy period. In fact, from 1993 to 2000, PM’s share of the United States market rose 20%, Lorillard’s share rose nearly 50%, RJR’s share fell approximately 25% and B&W’s share declined roughly 19%. These changes in appellees’ respective market shares were at least as great as those that occurred between 1980 and 1991, an unquestionably competitive period. For example, RJR lost twice as much market share from 1993 to 2000 as it did from 1982-1991. The class also labels as part of the conspiracy appellees’ adoption of permanent allocation programs despite the fact that they each had excess manufacturing capacities. According to the class, restricting supply in the face of consumer demand for more product was directly contrary to the manufacturers’ economic interests and thus indicative of illegal collusion. Appellants also argue PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard furthered their collusive enterprise by exchanging sales data through a common consultant, Management Science Associates (“MSA”), which allegedly enabled appellees to ensure that all were adhering to their allocation programs and to detect and punish what plaintiffs’ expert Franklin M. Fisher termed “defections from an industry understanding on price.” The MSA system tracks shipments from the manufacturers to wholesalers and from the wholesalers to retailers and provides reports to each appellee regarding the shipments of its competitors. Appellants allege that although in 1994 PM began collecting sales data on RJR, B&W and Lorillard through MSA, and thereby incurred a great competitive advantage, in 1995 it inexplicably began sharing this system with its competitors. Moreover, the class posits, over time the MSA system has been modified to make the cigarette market more transparent, and all of these alterations have been implemented with the unanimous consent of PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard. Appellants also designate other activities purportedly undertaken by appellees as non-competitive. First, they say that PM, RJR and B&W (along with other manufacturers) conspired during the 1950s to refrain from seeking any competitive advantage by developing more health-conscious tobacco products or by competing on the basis of health generally. The class argues that this understanding remained in effect during the conspiracy period, and says that this is further evidence that ap-pellees agreed not to compete on pricing grounds. Second, the class contends that PM, RJR and B&W explicitly fixed prices in other countries — including Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, France, Hungary, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, among others— as well, and that they did so as a “trial run” for their price fixing activities in the United States. They say that appellees’ “experience recognizing their competitors’ signals on price coordination in foreign markets would facilitate collusion in the U.S. market.” Third, the class designates as evidence of a price fixing conspiracy the very structure and history of the tobacco industry. It specifically points to the facts that this industry features a concentration of sellers, inelastic demand at competitive prices, high barriers to entry, a fungible product, principal firms selling at the same level in the chain of distribution, prices that can be changed quickly, cooperative practices and a record of antitrust violations. Fourth, the class alleges that appellees conducted little analysis of whether to implement each of the eleven individual price increases between 1993 and 2000. Fifth, appellants say that although wide market share shifts indisputably occurred during the alleged conspiracy period, collusion among the manufacturers is nevertheless evidenced by the dampening during this period of the even wider market share swings that pervaded between 1991 and 1993. Sixth, the class claims that appel-lees enjoyed numerous opportunities to conspire, and says that this is further evidence that they actually did collusively fix prices. Finally, appellants assert that the manufacturers’ consolidation of control over pricing decisions in the hands of a select few high ranking corporate officers represents additional evidence of collusion. The class contends that the efficacy of the conspiracy is established by its results. Between Marlboro Friday (April 2, 1993) and February, 2000, cigarette prices rose more than $1.17 per pack, and appellants say that they were overcharged — that is, charged more than they would have been in the absence of the conspiracy — a total of $11.9 billion. They further note that the manufacturers’ profit margins increased during the period of the alleged conspiracy, whereas they fell during the early 1990s, and that market shares stabilized during this time. Appellees, by contrast, vigorously dispute each of these contentions. They do so most powerfully by reiterating that (1) retail competition throughout the alleged conspiracy period was indisputably intense; (2) cigarette prices actually were lower during most of the alleged conspiracy period than they had been prior to Marlboro Friday; and (3) appellees’ market shares fluctuated far more dramatically during this time than could, possibly be explained in the event of an industry-wide agreement to fix prices (indeed, the market share shifts were at least as great as those that occurred between the competitive years of 1980-91). In fact, the only time the market share fluctuations were greater was during the period between 1991 and 1993, when the discount brands made significant inroads into the market. In February, 2000, faced with this pattern of what they perceived to be illegitimate, collusive price increases, several wholesalers filed individual lawsuits in various judicial districts around the country. The Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation consolidated these actions and transferred them to the United States District Court for the Northern District of Georgia, where they were assigned to Judge Forrester. Appellants subsequently filed an amended consolidated class action complaint alleging that PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard conspired to fix prices in violation of section 1 of the Sherman Act, 15 U.S.C. § 1 and sections 4 and 16 of the Clayton Act, 15 U.S.C. §§ 15 and 26. Appellants also alleged that the manufacturers had fraudulently concealed their activities, thereby tolling the four year statute of limitations that generally applies to federal antitrust actions. See 15 U.S.C. § 15b. On appellees’ motion, the district court subsequently dismissed without prejudice the fraudulent concealment allegations for failure to satisfy pleading requirements, and struck from the complaint as “evidence pleading” appellants’ claims regarding foreign markets. On January 23, 2001, the court certified a class of “[a]ll persons in the United States ... that purchased cigarettes directly from one or more of the Defendants, or any parent, subsidiary or affiliate thereof, at any time from February 8, 1996 to February 8, 2000.” Notably, the district court rejected the wholesalers’ fraudulent concealment argument, and the class was temporally limited by the four year antitrust statute of limitations, 15 U.S.C. § 15b; claims that pertained to the period prior to February 8, 1996 were dismissed as untimely. On February 22, 2001, the district court granted the class leave to file a second amended complaint, featuring claims under the same sections of the Sherman and Clayton Acts. The manufacturers again moved to dismiss the allegations of fraudulent concealment and any claims for relief that concerned actions taken prior to February 8, 1996, and the court granted both of these requests. Subsequently, on February 8, 2002, PM, RJR,. B&W and Lorillard moved for final summary judgment on all claims against them. On July 11, 2002, in what can be fairly described as a comprehensive and well-reasoned opinion, the district court granted this motion, and it is the correctness of this ruling that is at issue on appeal. In brief, appellants argue that the district court applied an overly stringent legal standard in evaluating appellees’ summary judgment motion. Specifically, they claim that the court improperly required them to exclude all non-conspiratorial explanations for the manufacturers’ behavior and impermissibly weighed the evidence, thereby usurping the function of the jury. Appellants further contend that the district court erred by considering each piece of evidence they presented in isolation, as opposed to evaluating their proofs in concert. The wholesalers then identify 11 “plus factors,” see infra, and argue that each plus factor creates a presumption that PM, RJR, B&W and Loril-lard conspired to fix cigarette prices. They say that this presumption enables them to survive appellees’ summary judgment motion. The class also argues that the district court’s entry of final summary judgment was improper because it was predicated on the erroneous exclusion of portions of Fisher’s expert testimony. The manufacturers respond by defending the district court’s opinion on its terms. They argué that the court applied precisely the correct summary judgment standard, that it did not improperly weigh appellants’ proffered evidence or fail to consider that evidence in concert, that none of the court’s evidentiary rulings were erroneous and that none of the class’s alleged “plus factors” actually tends to indicate a price fixing conspiracy any more than it does rational, lawful, competitive oligopolistic behavior. Distilled to its essence, the argument espoused by PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard is that in an oligopoly, reason and economic rationality often dictate parallel pricing behavior, and that the evidence presented by the class is perfectly consistent with such “conscious parallelism.” The manufacturers further assert that various facts on which appellants do not focus, or that the class mis-characterizes, establish conclusively that appellees’ behavior from 1993 through 2000 is dramatically inconsistent with any collusive behavior. Accordingly, they say, even if appellants had established the existence of a plus factor, and thus created an inference of conspiracy, that inference has been fully rebutted. For all of these reasons, the manufacturers assert that the district court properly entered final summary judgment in their favor. II We review de novo a summary judgment ruling, applying the same legal standard used by the district court. See Johnson v. Bd. of Regents, 263 F.3d 1234, 1242-43 (11th Cir.2001). In conducting this examination, we view the materials presented and all factual inferences in the light most favorable to the non-moving party. See Adickes v. S.H. Kress & Co., 398 U.S. 144, 157, 90 S.Ct. 1598, 1608, 26 L.Ed.2d 142 (1970). Summary judgment is appropriate where “there is no genuine issue as to any material fact” and “the moving party is entitled to a judgment as a matter of law.” Fed.R.Civ.P. 56(c). The burden of demonstrating the satisfaction of this standard lies with the movant, who must present “pleadings, depositions, answers to interrogatories, and admissions on file, together with the affidavits, if any” that establish the absence of any genuine, material factual dispute. Id. We review the district court’s exclusion of expert evidence for an abuse of discretion. See Maiz v. Virani, 253 F.3d 641, 662 (11th Cir.2001) (“We review a trial court’s evidentiary rulings on the admission of expert witness testimony only for abuse of discretion.”) (citing Toole v. Baxter Healthcare Corp., 235 F.3d 1307, 1312 (11th Cir.2000)). A. The Summary Judgment Standard in the Price Fixing Context In order to fully explain the summary judgment standard that we apply in price fixing cases, it is important to distinguish at the outset between collusive price fixing, i.e., a “meeting of the minds” to collusively control prices, which is prohibited under the Sherman and Clayton Acts, and “conscious parallelism,” which is not. As the Supreme Court has recognized, oligopolies — of which the modern tobacco industry is by all measures a prime example — often feature coordinated pricing and related behaviors. See Brooke Group, Ltd. v. Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corp., 509 U.S. 209, 227, 113 S.Ct. 2578, 2590, 125 L.Ed.2d 168 (1993); United States v. Von’s Grocery Co., 384 U.S. 270, 300, 86 S.Ct. 1478, 1495, 16 L.Ed.2d 555 (1966) (Stewart, J., dissenting) (discussing “the sort of consciously interdependent pricing that is characteristic of a market turning the corner toward oligopoly”). Indeed, we have explicitly recognized that “ ‘the distinctive characteristic of oligopoly is recognized interdependence among the leading firms: the profit-maximizing choice of price and output for one depends on the choices made by others.’ ” Bailey, 284 F.3d at 1251 (quoting IIA Areeda & Hovenkamp, Antitrust Law ¶ 404a). When they are the product of a rational, independent calculus by each member of the oligopoly, as opposed to collusion, these types of synchronous actions have become known as “conscious parallelism.” The Court has defined this phenomenon as “the process, not in itself unlawful, by which firms in a concentrated market might in effect share monopoly power, setting their prices at a profit-maximizing, supracompetitive level by recognizing their shared economic interests and their interdependence with respect to price and output decisions.” Brooke Group, 509 U.S. at 227, 113 S.Ct. at 2590 (citations omitted). “In other words,” we have further explained, “conscious parallelism is the practice of interdependent pricing in an oligop-olistic market by competitor firms that realize that attempts to cut prices usually reduce revenue without increasing any firm’s market share, but that simple price leadership in such a market can readily increase all competitors’ revenues.” City of Tuscaloosa v. Harcros Chems., Inc., 158 F.3d 548, 570 (11th Cir.1998) (citations omitted). Thus, these behaviors typically result from firms’ rational recognition that the market structure in which they operate will most easily yield profits by means other than price competition. As numerous courts have recognized, it often is difficult to determine which of these situations — illegal price fixing or conscious parallelism — is present in a given case. This is largely attributable to the efforts typically made by those who fall on the wrong side of this line to disguise the illegal nature of their endeavors. In this vein, we have recognized that: “[I]t is only in rare cases that a plaintiff can establish the existence of a conspiracy by showing an explicit agreement; most conspiracies are inferred from the behavior of the alleged conspirators,” and from other circumstantial evidence (economic and otherwise), such as barriers to entry and other market conditions. Horcros, 158 F.3d at 569 (quoting Seagood Trading Corp. v. Jerrico, Inc., 924 F.2d 1555, 1573 (11th Cir.1991)). In the unusual case where the plaintiff is able to muster direct evidence of price fixing, summary judgment is categorically inappropriate. See In re Citric Acid Litig., 191 F.3d 1090, 1093 (9th Cir.1999) (“[Plaintiff] argues ...' that it has produced direct evidence that [Defendant] entered into illegal price-fixing agreements with the admitted eonspirators[,] in which case summary judgment would, of course, be inappropriate .... ” (citing McLaughlin v. Liu, 849 F.2d 1205, 1208 (9th Cir.1988) and T.W. Elec. Serv., Inc. v. Pacific Elec. Contractors Ass’n, 809 F.2d 626, 631-32 (9th Cir.1987))); In re Baby Food Antitrust Litig., 166 F.3d 112, 117-18 (3d Cir.1999). More frequently, price fixing plaintiffs are relegated to relying on indirect means of proof. The problem with this reliance on circumstantial evidence, however, is that such evidence is by its nature ambiguous, and necessarily requires the drawing of one or more inferences in order to substantiate claims of illegal conspiracy. Over time, courts have become attuned to the economic costs associated with using circumstantial evidence to distinguish between altogether lawful, independent, consciously parallel decision-making within an oligopoly on the one hand, and illegal, collusive price fixing on the other. See, e.g., Matsushita Elec. Indus. Co. v. Zenith Radio Corp., 475 U.S. 574, 594, 106 S.Ct. 1348, 1360, 89 L.Ed.2d 538 (1986) (“Mistaken inferences in cases such as this one are especially costly, because they chill the very conduct the antitrust laws are designed to protect. ‘[W]e must be concerned lest a rule or precedent that authorizes a search for a particular type of undesirable pricing behavior end up by discouraging legitimate price competition.’ ” (citing Monsanto Co. v. Spray-Rite Serv. Corp., 465 U.S. 752, 763-64, 104 S.Ct. 1464, 1470, 79 L.Ed.2d 775 (1984) and quoting Barry Wright Corp. v. ITT Grinnell Corp., 724 F.2d 227, 234 (1st Cir.1983))). This recognition is reflected in the summary judgment formulation that is employed in price fixing cases. See PepsiCo, Inc. v. Coca-Cola Co., 315 F.3d 101, 104 (2d Cir.2002) (“In the context of antitrust cases ... summary judgment is particularly favored because of the concern that protracted litigation will chill pro-competitive market forces.”) (citation omitted). In order to ensure that only potentially meritorious claims survive summary judgment, the Supreme Court has required that inferences of a price fixing conspiracy drawn from circumstantial evidence be reasonable. See Matsushita, 475 U.S. at 588, 106 S.Ct. at 1356 (“Respondents ... must show that the inference of conspiracy is reasonable in light of the competing inferences of independent action or collusive action....”). Indeed, “antitrust law limits the range of permissible inferences from ambiguous evidence in a § 1 case.” Id. (emphasis added). In practice, this means that “[t]o survive a motion for summary judgment ... a plaintiff seeking damages for [collusive price fixing] ... must present evidence ‘that tends to exclude the possibility’ that the alleged conspirators acted independently.” Matsushita, 475 U.S. at 588, 106 S.Ct. at 1356 (quoting Monsanto, 465 U.S. at 764, 104 S.Ct. at 1471). Evidence that does not support the existence of a price fixing conspiracy any more strongly than it supports conscious parallelism is insufficient to survive a defendant’s summary judgment motion. See id. (“[Cjonduct as consistent with permissible competition as with illegal conspiracy does not, standing alone, support an inference of antitrust conspiracy.” (citing Monsanto, 465 U.S. at 764, 104 S.Ct. at 1470)) (other citation omitted); Harcros, 158 F.3d at 569 (“[Plaintiffs’ circumstantial documentary evidence is in equipoise, and in the absence of further evidence of collusion, summary judgment against the plaintiffs would be in order.”); id. (‘“A fact that can only be decided by a coin toss has not been proven by a preponderance of the evidence, and cannot be submitted to the jury.’ ” (quoting James v. Otis Elevator Co., 854 F.2d 429, 432 n. 3 (11th Cir.1988))). In applying these principles, we have fashioned a test under which price fixing plaintiffs must demonstrate the existence of “plus factors” that remove their evidence from the realm of equipoise and render that evidence more probative of conspiracy than of conscious parallelism. See Harcros, 158 F.3d at 570-71 (“ ‘[I]t is well settled in this circuit that evidence of conscious parallelism [alone] does not permit an inference of conspiracy unless the plaintiff [either] establishes that ... each defendant engaging in the parallel action acted contrary to its economic self-interest’ or offers other ‘plus factors’ tending to establish that the defendants were not engaging merely in oligopolistic price maintenance or price leadership but rather in a collusive agreement to fix prices or otherwise restrain trade.”) (quoting Todorov v. DCH Healthcare Auth, 921 F.2d 1438, 1456 n. 30 (11th Cir.1991)) (other citations omitted). Although our easelaw has identified some specific plus factors, for example, “a showing that the defendants’ behavior would not be reasonable or explicable (i.e. not in their legitimate economic self-interest) if they were not conspiring to fix prices or otherwise restrain trade,” Harcros, 158 F.3d at 572, any showing by appellants that “tend[s] to exclude the possibility of independent action” can qualify as a “plus factor.” Id. at 571 n. 35. In cases where the plaintiff establishes the existence of one or more “plus factors,” these factors “only create a rebuttable presumption of a conspiracy which the defendant may defeat with his own evidence.... ” Todorov, 921 F.2d at 1456 n. 30. In short, there are three steps to the summary judgment analysis in the price fixing context. First, the court must determine whether the plaintiff has established a pattern of parallel behavior. Second, it must decide whether the plaintiff has demonstrated the existence of one or more plus factors that “tends to exclude the possibility that the alleged conspirators acted independently.” Matsushita, 475 U.S. at 588, 106 S.Ct. at 1356 (internal punctuation and citation omitted). The existence of such a plus factor generates an inference of illegal price fixing. Third, if the first two steps are satisfied, the defendants may rebut the inference of collusion by presenting evidence establishing that no reasonable factfinder could conclude that they entered into a price fixing conspiracy. In undertaking this analysis, the district court is obligated to give the price fixing plaintiff(s) “ ‘the full benefit of their proof without tightly compartmentalizing the various factual components and wiping the slate clean of scrutiny of each.’ ” Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1268 (quoting Continental Ore Co. v. Union Carbide & Carbon Corp., 370 U.S. 690, 699, 82 S.Ct. 1404, 1410, 8 L.Ed.2d 777 (1962)). However, as indicated by this discussion, it unquestionably is the duty of the district court to evaluate the evidence proffered by the plaintiffs not to ascertain its credibility, but instead to determine whether that evidence, if credited, “tends to” establish a conspiracy more than it indicates conscious parallelism. As the district court put this matter, “the import of the piece of circumstantial evidence [that appellants argue constitutes a plus factor] must actually be of the import that is ascribed to it by [appellants]. If, when considered in its entirety, it is totally ambiguous or to the opposite effect, it ... may not be relied upon by the jury.” Id. at 1270. The district court then properly observed that a statement could not constitute a plus factor—i.e., could not be said by a reasonable factfinder to tend to exclude the possibility independent behavior or to establish a price fixing conspiracy-— (1) if it required the jury to “engage in speculation and conjecture to such a degree as to render its finding ‘a guess or mere possibility/” id. at 1271 (quoting Daniels v. Twin Oaks Nursing Home, 692 F.2d 1321, 1326 (11th Cir.1982)); or (2) if to infer conspiracy from the evidence the jury necessarily would engage in “fallacious reasoning.” Id. Moreover, “if [appellants’] theory is economically senseless, no reasonable jury could find in its favor, and summary judgment should be granted.” Eastman Kodak Co. v. Image Tech. Servs., Inc., 504 U.S. 451, 468-69, 112 S.Ct. 2072, 2083, 119 L.Ed.2d 265 (1992). In this ease, the district court set forth this standard correctly and in detail, and none of appellants’ criticisms of the court’s articulation of the summary judgment standard are persuasive. The class says that the district court required it to exclude all “innocent” explanations for ap-pellees’ conduct in order to survive summary judgment. However, this plainly is incorrect. The court did not mandate that appellants exclude the possibility of conscious parallelism in order to survive summary judgment, but instead it required them to present some evidence that “tends to” exclude lawful, synchronous behavior. This is precisely in line with the method of proof established by the Supreme Court in Matsushita and refined by this court in Harcros. Nor, in a similar vein, did the district court insist that the existence of a conspiracy be the sole inference that a reasonable juror could draw from appellants’ evidence. Again, the court required only that the class’s evidence tend to exclude the possibility of conscious parallelism or, stated differently, to establish a price fixing conspiracy, nothing more, nothing less. The class also is incorrect insofar as it suggests that the Supreme Court’s decision in Eastman Kodak casts doubt on the correctness of the summary judgment standard applied by the district court. The Court said in Eastman Kodak that “Matsushita demands only that the non-moving party’s inferences be reasonable in order to reach the jury, a requirement that was not invented, but merely articulated, in that decision.” 504 U.S. at 468, 112 S.Ct. at 2083 (citing Matsushita, 475 U.S. at 587-88, 106 S.Ct. at 1356). As the district court explicitly recognized, see Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1270 n. 9, the Court further held in Eastman Kodak that its “requirement in Matsushita that the plaintiffs’ claims make economic sense did not introduce a special burden on plaintiffs facing summary judgment in antitrust cases.” 504 U.S. at 468, 112 S.Ct. at 2083. The class argues that the district court’s imposition of a “tends to exclude the possibility that the alleged conspirators acted independently” standard contradicted Eastman Kodak because it imposed a “special burden” on antitrust plaintiffs. However, this argument is unpersuasive for at least two distinct reasons. First, the “tends to exclude ...” standard itself was announced by the Supreme Court in Matsushita, and as such Eastman Kodak’s reaffirmation of Matsushita reaffirms the correctness of this standard as well. See Eastman Kodak, 504 U.S. at 468, 112 S.Ct. at 2083 (“Matsushita demands only that the nonmoving party’s inferences be reasonable in order to reach the jury....”). Moreover, as recently as 1998, in binding precedent, we applied this standard unambiguously in Hamos, observing that “[t]o survive a motion for summary judgment or for a directed verdict, a plaintiff seeking damages for a violation of § 1 must present evidence ‘that tends to exclude the possibility’ that the alleged conspirators acted independently. [Such plaintiffs], in other words, must show that the inference of conspiracy is reasonable in light of the competing inferences of independent action or collusive action that could not have harmed respondents.” 158 F.3d at 570 (quoting Matsushita, 475 U.S. at 575, 106 S.Ct. at 1350). Second, it also is firmly established that a price fixing plaintiffs evidence must create a “reasonable” inference of conspiracy in order to withstand a summary judgment motion. See, e.g., PepsiCo, Inc., 315 F.3d at 105 (“Although all reasonable inferences will be drawn in favor of the nonmovant, those inferences ‘must be reasonable in light of competing inferences of acceptable conduct.’ ” (quoting Tops Mkts., Inc. v. Quality Mkts., Inc., 142 F.3d 90, 95 (2d Cir.1998))). The “tends to exclude ...” standard articulated in Matsushita and applied by the district court in this case simply represents an explication of this requirement; it does not represent a new hurdle. In other words, evidence creates the requisite reasonable inference of conspiracy if it “tends to exclude the possibility that the alleged conspirators acted independently.” Thus, the summary judgment standard applied by the district court does not in any way run afoul of Eastman Kodak. We also note that Eastman Kodak, Matsushita and Harcros were accurately cited at length by the district court in this case in discussing the summary judgment standard to be applied in price fixing cases. Similarly unpersuasive is appellants’ argument that although they must demonstrate the existence of one or more plus factors, the evidence constituting such a factor must merely “tend to establish” a conspiracy, as opposed to “tend to exclude” independent action. In support of this proposition the class cites Harcros, where we said: [I]t is well settled in this circuit that evidence of conscious parallelism [alone] does not permit an inference of conspiracy unless the plaintiff [either] establishes that, assuming there is no conspiracy, each defendant engaging in the parallel action acted contrary to its economic self-interest, or offers other “plus factors” tending to establish that the defendants were not engaging merely in oligopolistic price maintenance or price leadership but rather in a collusive agreement to fix prices or otherwise restrain trade. 158 F.3d at 570-71 (citations and internal punctuation omitted) (emphasis added). However, the distinction that appellants draw between this language and the “tends to exclude ...” standard announced in Matsushita is semantic only; it makes no substantive difference. Evidence that tends to exclude the possibility of independent action necessarily tends to establish collusion. The class’s formulation is simply the linguistic flip side of the test announced in Matsushita. Indeed, in Harcros we used these formulations interchangeably. Compare 158 F.3d at 570 (“[A] plaintiff seeking damages for a violation of § 1 must present evidence that tends to exclude the possibility that the alleged conspirators acted independently”) (internal punctuation and citations omitted) (emphasis added) with id. at 570-71 (discussing “ ‘plus factors’ tending to establish that the defendants were ... in a collusive agreement to fix prices or otherwise restrain trade”) (emphasis added). Appellants further argue that because of its “fundamental error” in conflating the “tends to exclude ...” and “tends to establish ...” standards in the context of the plus factor analysis, the district court examined each piece of evidence separately to determine whether summary judgment was appropriate instead of considering the wholesalers’ proofs in concert. As we observed above, however, this assertion is unfounded. See Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1268 (“The court is ... mindful that it must consider the evidence presented by Plaintiffs as a whole and that ‘plaintiffs should be given the full benefit of their proof without tightly compartmentalizing the various factual components and wiping the slate clean after scrutiny of each.’” (quoting Continental Ore Co., 370 U.S. at 699, 82 S.Ct. at 1410)); id. at 1270 (“[T]he import of the piece of circumstantial evidence must actually be of the import that is ascribed to it by Plaintiffs. If, when considered in its entirety, it is totally ambiguous or to the opposite effect, it is not relevant and may not be relied upon by the jury.”) (emphasis added). The class is correct that the district court at one point indicated that it was analyzing “whether a piece of evidence can be admitted as relevant because it creates a reasonable inference.” Id. However, in the face of the foregoing statements, the stray comment to which the class refers is vastly insufficient to establish that the court did not actually examine the class’s evidence as a whole. This is especially so given that the district court ultimately expressed its conclusion as being “that the evidence adduced by Plaintiffs does not singularly or in combination exclude the possibility that Defendants acted independently.” Id. at 1328 (emphasis added). Instead, the court’s statement indicates simply that the district court properly analyzed appellants’ alleged plus factors both individually and in concert. Under Matsushita and Harc-ros, this certainly did not constitute legal error. Moreover, we have independently reviewed appellants’ alleged plus factors, both individually and in combination, and we agree that none of these factors actually tends to exclude the possibility of independent behavior or tends to establish a price fixing agreement. The class further argues that the district court improperly substituted its assessment of the evidence for that of the jury, i.e., that it acted as factfinder at the summary judgment stage. We think the court did no such thing. Instead, it merely ascertained, as it was required to do under Matsushita and Harcros, whether appellants’ evidence tended to exclude the possibility of independent action. It made no finding as to whether such independent action did or did not exist. Although it did make determinations as to the reasonableness of the inferences that could be drawn from the evidence, these were threshold legal determinations that appropriately were made by the district court. Finally, appellants argue that the district court failed to view the evidence in the light most favorable to them and that it also failed to distinguish between the existence of a conspiracy and its efficacy. However, they neither explain nor support these allegations, and as such we are unable to evaluate them. B. The District Court’s Application of the Antitrust Summary Judgment Standard in This Case As a preliminary matter, no party contests the satisfaction of the first prong of our inquiry, viz., the existence of parallel pricing behavior. As evidenced by the repeated, synchronous pricing decisions that occurred within the tobacco industry between 1993 and 2000, appellees plainly priced their products in parallel. Similarly uncontroversial is appellants’ lack of direct evidence of a price fixing conspiracy among PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard. Although the class argued in the district court that it had presented such evidence, it has abandoned this contention on appeal. Accordingly, the key questions on appeal are (1) whether appellants have shown the existence of a plus factor so as to create an inference of conspiracy; and (2) if so, whether appellees are able to rebut that inference. 1. Appellants ’ Alleged Plus Factors After articulating the summary judgment standard in an antitrust case, the district court delineated eleven distinct factors that appellants had denominated “plus factors.” These are: “(1) signaling of intentions; (2) permanent allocations programs; (3) monitoring of sales; (4) actions taken contrary to economic self-interest, including (a) little analysis of whether to follow price increases, (b) B&W and RJR pulling away from the discount cigarette market, (c) the May 1995 price increase lead by RJR and followed by Philip Morris, (d) Philip Morris’ agreement to base the initial [Management Science Associates] ... payments on market capitalization rather than market share, and (e) ‘excessive’ price increases after the MSA; (5) nature of the market; (6) strong motivation; (7) reduction in the number of price tiers; (8) opportunities to conspire; (9) pricing decisions made at high levels; (10) the smoking and health conspiracy; and (11) foreign conspiracies.” Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1274. Although the district court found that only the first four of these factors “merit[ed] serious consideration,” id., it analyzed each of them in detail. The district court ultimately concluded that none of them actually tended to exclude the possibility of independent behavior, and the class contests the correctness of the court’s conclusions as to each factor. Accordingly, we consider each of these alleged plus factors. a. Signaling First, appellants identify several “signals” that allegedly were transmitted among PM, RJR, B&W and Lorillard as to their pricing intentions. The class claims that these signals were the means by which appellees’ price fixing conspiracy was carried out, as the manufacturers formulated and cemented their plans to collusively fix cigarette prices by indirectly communicating with each other through media outlets and other public announcements. However, the district court rejected these communications as a plus factor, saying that it found: [The class’s] theory of signaling among the companies to be based on a combination of statements taken out of context, as well as ominous readings of typical industry reporting on strategy. To reach the inferences suggested would require the jury to engage in speculation and does not tend to exclude the possibility that [appellees] acted independently.... [Appellants] have done nothing more than show that in an oligopoly, each company is aware of the others’ actions. This is the nature of the economic interdependence of the companies in an oligopoly. Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1275. The district court further noted that “in competitive markets, particularly oligopolies, companies will monitor each other’s communications with the market in order to make their own strategic decisions!. As such], antitrust law permits such discussions even when they relate to pricing because the ‘dissemination of price information is not itself a per se violation of the Sherman Act.’ ” Id. at 1276 (quoting United States v. Citizens and S. Nat’l Bank, 422 U.S. 86, 113, 95 S.Ct. 2099, 2115, 45 L.Ed.2d 41 (1975)). In this vein, lead counsel for the class conceded at oral argument before the district court on the manufacturers’ summary-judgment motions that the ultimate outcome of all of the statements and actions that appellants label signals was to return the tobacco industry from the pricing chaos that followed Marlboro Friday to a “traditional normal oligopoly,” which, of course, is perfectly legal. Id. at 1316. Nonetheless, the class posits that the signaling among appellees began when PM publicly announced on Marlboro Friday that its prospective strategy with respect to Marlboro was to “grow market share and longer term profits,” and that it would “forgo any further price increases on premium brands for the foreseeable future.” The translation of this announcement, the class says, is that PM would not engage in any more price cuts provided that its competitors did not attempt to alter the price gap between premium and discount or deep discount cigarettes. Thus, appellants do not argue that the actions taken by PM on Marlboro Friday were in any way anti-competitive; in fact, they explicitly concede (as surely they must) that this was an exceptionally competitive move. See generally NCAA v. Bd. of Regents of Univ. of Okla., 468 U.S. 85, 104-106 & n. 27, 104 S.Ct. 2948, 2961-62 & n. 27, 82 L.Ed.2d 70 (1984) (discussing generally the Sherman Act’s goals of reducing prices and promoting competition, and observing specifically that “ ‘[the Act] rests on the premise that the unrestrained interaction of competitive forces will yield the best allocation of our economic resources, the lowest prices, the highest quality and the greatest material progress’ ” (quoting Northern Pacific R. Co. v. United States, 356 U.S. 1, 4-5, 78 S.Ct. 514, 517-518, 2 L.Ed.2d 545 (1958))); Monahan’s Marine, Inc. v. Boston Whaler, Inc., 866 F.2d 525, 527 (1st Cir.1989) (“The Sherman Act’s very purpose is to help consumers, in part by bringing about low, nonpredatory prices.”). Indeed, as the Supreme Court explained in Brooke Group: Even in an oligopolistic market, when a firm drops its prices to a competitive level to demonstrate to a maverick the unprofitability of straying from the group, it would be illogical to condemn the price cut: The antitrust laws then would be an obstacle to the chain of events most conducive to a breakdown of oligopoly pricing and the onset of competition. Even if the ultimate effect of the cut is to induce or reestablish supra-competitive pricing, discouraging a price cut and forcing firms to maintain supra-competitive prices, thus depriving consumers of the benefits of lower prices in the interim, does not constitute sound antitrust policy. 509 U.S. at 223-24, 113 S.Ct. at 2588. Similarly, we believe that PM’s announcement of its plan not to increase prices on premium brands (and thus relinquish any basis for gaining market share that it enjoyed as a result of Marlboro Friday) does not tend to exclude the possibility of independent behavior or to establish a price fixing conspiracy. Indeed, this announcement was a legitimate communication within the market on a day when an explanation for PM’s unprecedented — and unquestionably competitive — -behavior plainly was necessary. Contrary to the class’s allegation that “[i]t seems unusual for a manufacturer of a consumer good to conduct a press conference to announce that it has decided to engage in retail competition,” PM’s explanation of the dramatic events of Marlboro Friday is by no means surprising. Thus, as the district court said, “the allegation of Marlboro Friday as ‘invitation to collude’ is not supported by the materials cited by [appellants].” Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1278. Moreover, we note that the Supreme Court’s caveat in Brooke Group against discouraging competitive pricing behavior applies with equal force to PM’s July, 1993 price reductions as it does to those instituted on Marlboro Friday. To reiterate, PM reinforced its Marlboro Friday actions by announcing on July 20, 1993 that it would similarly reduce the prices of all of its premium brands and that it was consolidating its discount and deep-discount price tiers. In a commensurately competitive response to PM’s actions, RJR, B&W and Lorillard — which already had reduced their premium prices in response to Marlboro Friday — followed suit and consolidated their discount and deep-discount prices. This had the effect of finally narrowing the premium/discount price gap to a level PM found acceptable. Subsequently, on November 8, 1993 RJR led a 4c per pack increase for both of these brand categories, which was promptly followed by PM, B&W and Lorillard. The class argues that RJR and B&W — which had been the primary beneficiaries of the broader, pre-Marlboro Friday gap — should have attempted to re-widen the premium-discount price gap. By instead acquiescing in the prices imposed on the market by PM, appellants say, RJR and B&W signaled their acceptance of the condition for a price increase established by PM, i.e., that any such increase could not result in a widening of the gap. Notably, however, appellants do not specify precisely how RJR and B&W should have tried to re-widen the price gap; that is, they do not identify the particular combination of premium price increases and/or discount price reductions that would have created a gap more favorable from the perspective of RJR and B&W. Moreover, RJR and B&W’s decisions to accept the narrower premium-discount price gap preferred by PM do not tend to exclude the possibility of independent behavior or to establish a price fixing conspiracy. It is plain to us that RJR and B&W’s actions are readily explained as economically rational, self-interested responses to Marlboro Friday. PM’s premium price cuts strongly suggested to its competitors that any attempt to gain market share for discount brands through further price cuts would not be accepted. For example, had RJR or B&W tried to cut its discount prices while raising premium prices, as the class seems to argue they should have, PM would likely (and readily) have matched the lower discount prices while simultaneously lowering its premium prices, thereby underselling its competitors in the premium market and restoring the premium-discount price gap to the level it desired. Thus, any such wholesale price competition by RJR or B&W would only have decreased industry revenues across the board without increasing their market shares. The only viable way for RJR and B&W to increase their revenues was to raise prices in a manner that would not provoke a competitive response from PM, which is precisely the action that the class labels a signal of conspiracy. Put simply, this action is no more indicative of collusion than it is of lawful, rational pricing behavior. The class denotes as still another signal the statement by Martin Broughton that “[BAT] may be one of those who started the price war in the U.S., but we have no wish to escalate it.” The central problem with this argument, however, is that appellants have not fully represented what Broughton said. As the district court noted, the full statement reads: “BAT may be one of those who started the price war in the U.S., but we have no wish to escalate it. But we shall be ready to respond tactically where necessary.” Holiday Wholesale Grocery, 231 F.Supp.2d at 1278 (emphasis added). As the court continued: “[T]he rest of the interview also notes that Mr. Broughton was ‘perplexed’ by [PM’s] tactics and that BAT “will wait and see what happens in the market before playing its own cards.’ ” Id. The district court concluded that when Broughton’s entire statement is considered, “[n]o reasonable jury could infer that B&W agreed to any particular future course of conduct....” Id. We agree; Broughton’s statement is at best ambiguous and, more realistically, cuts against a finding of collusion. As explained swpra, it is clear that further price reductions of either the premium or discount brands would have reduced B&W’s revenues without increas